May was a very hot and cold month for the Northwest Arkansas Naturals but two players stood out amongst the rest throughout the month. One played so well that I won’t get to write about him as a Natural again. Our hitter raised his average by 60, his on-base percentage by 49, and his slugging by a whopping 148 points. The walk tool appeared and the in-game power finally reared its head after a slow start. The pitcher of the hour pitched so well that he earned a promotion to AAA Omaha. He only made seven starts for the Naturals this season before the promotion. He even left the team before the end of the month and still managed to be the most impressive arm in May.
Quick reminder, these are the numbers I will tend to look for when evaluating these players:
For pitchers, we will look at strikeouts (on a scale of course for relievers), WHIP, ERA, and walks.
For hitters, we will revolve around OPS, wOBA, strikeouts, BABIP, wRC+, and home runs.
Pitcher of the Month – Chandler Champlain
Chandler Champlain was otherworldly in his three starts for the Naturals in May. He only allowed one run over 17.1 innings, striking out 24, and walking just two batters. Two of his starts in May weren’t with the AA team, keeping those numbers from counting here, and this award still wasn’t even close. His ERA fell all the way down to 3.50 with the squad in Springdale before his promotion. A massive bounceback after that number sat at 6.27 through four starts in April. His WHIP through these starts sat at a nice, round 1.00 over his three appearances with almost all of those baserunners coming via hit. There is no other way to describe his May but “dominant”.
As a bit of an afterthought, I want to cover what helped him get promoted so quickly. Most importantly we should acknowledge that his last three starts in AA were the tipping point. Without those, he would most likely still be down in Arkansas looking to move up soon. Champlain had looked great all season, giving up more than three runs in only one game all year. This was not only an outlier, but the first game of the year. He quickly locked in, establishing the best combination of command and strikeout ability on the roster. He managed a tremendously impressive 7 walks to 48 strikeouts over 36.0 innings in Northwest Arkansas. It isn’t hard to see what the front office saw that prompted his promotion
Champlain also improved in some pretty important stats to accompany his 2024 success. He struck out 12 batters per nine innings in AA, up drastically from his 7.89 K/9 in 2023. His BB/9 also improved, dropping from 3.08 in 2023 to 1.75 in AA during this season. He isn’t only the best in the system right now at getting outs at the plate efficiently, but he has dramatically improved in that aspect from last year’s campaign. Digging into some more advanced stats, Champlain had a solid ERA in AA but his fielding independent pitching (FIP) indicates that he isn’t relying on fielding at all to acquire his outs. His FIP sat lower than his ERA (3.50) at 3.04, with his xFIP even lower than that at 2.53. Chandler Champlain was promoted because he was pitching so well that great fielding couldn’t positively impact his advanced numbers at all.
Hitter of the Month – Gavin Cross
A quick visit back to our opening paragraph will give you a little insight into how Cross landed here after a slow start to 2024. His slash in May was a very healthy .333/.412/.556, which pushed his numbers back to expectations before his down year in 2023. Cross entered the month with zero home runs and looked a bit lost while trying to interpret the zone. He remedied that by smacking five bombs and almost doubling his walks from April. Cross also showed off his ability to drive in runs with 23 RBI in just 26 games. His OPS on the month was a team-leading .968 due to his tremendous turnaround drawing walks and tapping into his power.
On the season, Cross’ numbers have improved dramatically after a slow start to the season. After turning the corner with his pitch selection, it became clear his contact and power ability were still more than present. Of note, his walk rate has fallen from 16.7% in 2023 to 11.3% this season. To pair, however, his strikeout rate has plummeted almost 10 points to 24.1% from 33.3%. His pitch selection is the leading factor here, as his plate approach matures. Moving forward, it will remain important that these numbers remain constant or improve. Both are entirely maintainable as is, but slipping in either could lead to some negative correlation in his numbers.
