Chris Stratton could be the best free agent signing the Royals made this off-season.  This is either a hot take or merely stating the obvious—any of the six recently signed Royals could be the best; no one said Garrett Hampson couldn’t be good.  But in terms of cost-efficiency, Stratton is my pick for the best bang-for-your-buck signing the Royals made this winter.

What immediately stands out about Stratton is how much he pitches.  Since becoming a full-time reliever in 2019, he has thrown the second-most innings of any reliever in baseball—the first-most is Scott Barlow, interestingly enough.  Last year was his most definitive year as a workhorse reliever: Of his 64 total appearances, 36 of them, or 54%, had him recording more than three outs.  He’s done so with efficiency, requiring 30 or more pitches in just 10 of his appearances.

As any good pitcher would demonstrate, strike-throwing is what allows Stratton to stay in the game longer.  While his walk and strikeout numbers don’t jump off the page, his 64% strike-throwing rate is above average for all pitchers, relievers or otherwise.  His 4-Seamer is his bread-and-butter pitch, thrown more than 50% of the time and getting well-above-average called and swinging strikes thanks to his proficiency at locating it at the top of the zone.

The bottom of the zone is where he likes to throw the breaking stuff, whose quality doesn’t line up with the results.  Hitters have an average of .282 against Stratton’s slider and curveball. His changeup fares much better, but it’s a rarely seen pitch, leaving him with a horrible -10 run value on all his breaking pitches to counter-balance his elite +10 run value on the fastball.

What’s wrong with his breaking stuff might not be apparent just by looking at the numbers because, according to PitcherBot, Stratton’s arsenal ranges from above-average to downright elite.

His curveball is especially exciting by nature.  It generates more than 3200 RPM and breaks almost nine inches horizontally, both indicating that this is a truly elite pitch—or, at least, it should be. It’ll be interesting to see how Royals staffers work with Stratton as the development of Cole Ragans, and James McArthur suggests they have a good idea of how to get more out of a pitcher’s repertoire when it contains elite breaking stuff.

Even if the breaking balls are getting hit more than anyone wants them to, Stratton still provides a great floor of reliability with his fastball command, as evidenced by his 3.91 ERA and 3.51 FIP over his last four seasons.  Last year, he threw 82 innings to a 3.92 ERA which would not only have made him the best reliever on the Royals over the full season, but also the most worked.

If there is still more to be found with Stratton, I’m all for it, but even as he is now, I love what he brings to this team: consistency and reliability on a basic level. I say “basic level” because, if there is a flaw with him, it’s that he might not be the best pitcher outside of low-leverage situations or middle-relief innings; his ERA in the 9th inning is above 5, and opponents have an astonishing 1.182 OPS against him with two outs and RISP.  

Fortunately, the Royals seem to want those situations handled by either the young flamethrowers in McMillon and McArthur and maybe even Carlos Hernandez, as well as the newly-signed Will Smith. Stratton is best suited in a middle relief role where the situation isn’t dicey, but an arm is needed, especially if the starter didn’t go deep or a bullpen game is happening—something the 2023 Royals would love to tell you all about. It’s very unlikely that Chris Stratton will be the best pitcher in the Royals bullpen, but he’ll represent a significant upgrade from Taylor Clarke or José Cuas, at the very least, letting Quatraro save his better relievers for when they’re truly needed.

Did I mention he was only signed for $3.5 million?  Even if middle relievers aren’t particularly sought after right now, this looks like an incredible price for a solid pitcher.  That’s why I think Chris Stratton could sneakily be the best Royals signing this winter; he may not have the upside of others like Lugo, Wacha, and Renfroe, but I think his services will prove valuable for the 2024 Royals.