When the Royals traded for Kyle Wright and signed Seth Lugo, it was a safe bet that the team was done with pitching. That is until the December 15th signing of Michael Wacha to a two-year, $32 million deal. Selfishly, I was glad to be vindicated after wanting a Wacha signing during the 2022-23 offseason. After hinting at more moves, the Royals jumped at the opportunity to add another arm to a rotation that struggled in 2023.
Signing for $16 million per year makes a lot of sense for Wacha, but it was an easy number for the Royals to land on, too. Early in the offseason, the Padres declined an extension of the same value and length on Wacha. After deciding to try free agency, the Royals gave him what he was looking for and added a player option after year one as a bonus. It appears to be a very aggressive move for a front office that typically sits on their heels.
Why Wacha?
The Royals had a standout performance in Cole Ragans after his promotion in July, but the rest of the rotation (and bullpen) fell flat. With a third-worst 5.17 ERA, the fourth-least strikeouts, and 10th most walks, there was much to improve upon. The signing of Seth Lugo added a veteran arm looking to establish himself as a starter. Wacha brings a safety arm to the table with more starting experiences and great numbers. The signing of these two shows that the front office is willing to put bigger money into cornerstone pieces. It also shows an increased savvy within the free-agent market.
Wacha has had his issues with injury in the past, the most being in his shoulder. These concerns may explain why a pitcher younger than Lugo received a shorter deal. Regardless, “Why Wacha?” seems to be an easy question to answer. He’s an 11-year vet with some success and something to prove.
What Does He Have To Prove
Wacha, in 11 years, has been an All-Star once. While pitching above average isn’t inherently an indicator of being among the best in the game, it’s a start. Wacha has put up six seasons with an ERA+ over the league average of 100. He has held that number at 127 for the past two seasons without making an All-Star game appearance. Regardless of the performance from the rest of the league, it’s fair to assume he may expect more than the club option the Padres exercised. Wacha, now entering his age 32 season, is looking to lock down a final big deal in the coming years. With a chance to do so at actual market value and not a lower club option, Kauffman’s pitcher-friendly environment is enticing.
It is worth noting, however, that Wacha has taken two hiatuses from high-end pitching. These may have prevented some clubs from expecting results over a lengthy contract. Also adding some uneasiness around Wacha is that his best seasons don’t typically ask him to top 150 innings. Output aside, he has never averaged above 6 innings per outing. Coming into his last years to nail a big contract, he needs to prove he can either go the distance more often or pitch well enough to be worth the strain on the bullpen. I don’t expect Wacha to be here past his current contract. He may even use that player option to get a longer contract elsewhere a year early. He’s looking to get paid, but he can help the club in the intermediate.
Which Wacha Are We Getting
Wacha is coming off of the best back-to-back seasons in his career. The reasons I was so high on him leaving Boston are the reasons I am high on him this year. He may not shatter the ceiling, but we can fully expect him to put up a 3 to 3.50 ERA and pair it with around 110 strikeouts. His Baseball Savant page shows one big change in recent years to maintain these numbers. Wacha has never had an overbearing fastball, but his changeup is great. In the last two years, he has massively increased his changeup usage and reduced his four-seam. In 2023, he even made the drastic shift of throwing the change more than the fastball, with his change coming in 34.5% of the time. To pair with the increased usage of his change, he’s cut down on the cutter (no pun intended) as well.
This switch to a two-pitch approach has simplified his attack, increasing how often he uses his best pitch. However, this isn’t to say he stays with two pitches the whole time. He threw 5 different pitches last season, including the previously unmentioned curveball and sinker. That same sinker was introduced to his arsenal in 2019, spiking in usage during the 2022 campaign that set his current market.
2024, we can expect to see him roll with his bread and butter. A changeup first approach that will sit around 82 mph, followed up with a fastball resting at 92. Neither is manufactured to blow by people, but his lack of pop on the fastball may be his superpower. Without a massive difference in appearance, his swings and misses will come from hitters simply not adjusting to a 10 mph difference. In situations more dire he can call on the sinker or cutter (or even a surprisingly effective curveball with little usage.) The sinker is the better of the two pitches by far, with a lower batting average and slugging. The putaway percentage is higher, too, but the sinker does have a lower whiff rate. It seems like both pitches are a risk that Wacha will take in order to get the strikeout deep in counts.
Fozzy Bear’s Fit
Wacha looks to come in and become the number 2 starter in the rotation behind Lugo. He seems like a candidate to move a little, though. If Lugo falters in his second full season as a starter, Wacha could jump into the “ace” spot. Just as likely, if Singer surprises or Ragans continues his dominance, they may be candidates to move up in the rotation. By season’s end, I expect a pretty similar layout, but we may see some interesting movement. If the Royals intend to keep him past his player option, they’d hope to see him maintain his current production. The player option is probably pretty enticing, and as much as I’d love to keep him, he fills a need for the next two years and could be young enough to demand something long-term.