The Royals have put together one of the more complete off-season’s they have had in a while and signed players that could potentially help fix certain spots. One of those spots is starting pitcher. The Royals signed multiple arms this offseason, with one of the main ones being Seth Lugo
Lugo signed a 3-year deal with the Royals for $45 million with the last year (2026) of the deal being a player option. The deal itself is kind of odd given that Lugo is currently 34 and he would be 36 or 37 by the time the deal ends. But it could be because he doesn’t have a lot of innings on his arm given he became a starter late in his career. Either way Lugo brings some intriguing things to a rotation that desperately needs to be average.
When fans think of Seth Lugo they probably think of his curveball, especially if they follow Pitching Ninja on Twitter.
What does Lugo bring to the table?
Before we get into that however, Lugo had a solid season in 2023 with the San Diego Padres. He put up a career high in innings pitched with 146.1 with a 3.57 ERA as well as a career high 2.8 fWAR. 2023 was by far his best season of his career and his first one starting exclusively. He also had solid per/9 numbers with a K/9 of 8.61, a BB/9 of 2.21, and an average HR/9 of 1.17, according to FanGraphs.
The up front numbers look good, but what about the underlying statistics? Well, those are solid as well. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.83 and his LOB% was 76.8%. His ERA- and FIP- were 86 and 89 as well. For a quick lesson in pitching stats, ERA and FIP- are like wRC+ and OPS+ for hitters. 100 is league average for all of them, but for ERA and FIP- anything below 100 is better. What this means is Lugo was 14% better than league average in ERA and 11% better than league average in FIP.
We haven’t even gotten to his best stuff yet. Take a look at the Baseball Savant numbers for Lugo. Starting with his repertoire, Lugo throws a 4-seam fastball, a curve, a sinker, and a slider. He throws each (in order) 31.8%, 29.4%, 20.0%, and 9.1% with an occasional changeup and sweeper. There is good balance with his stuff.
The Main concern heading into 2024 for Lugo.
With that usage comes some concerning stuff, specifically with his curve. In his career, Lugo has interchanged his 4-seam and curve as his best pitch (based on run value). With that, Lugo’s curve last season had a run value of negative 5, the worst run value of his career on that pitch. Hitters were hitting .290 (second worst mark in career) and producing a wOBA of .320 off his curve (worst mark in career).
While the curve came off its worst season for Lugo, it could be because he threw it a ton more than usual in his career. He threw it 698 times last season, which is a career high so hitters saw it a lot more. While hitters were keying in on the curve, Lugo’s sinker and 4-seam became the stars of his repertoire.
Combined the run values of both were 18 (7 on 4-seam and 11 on sinker). Lugo has made a career off mixing his fastballs with his curve and that should continue during his Royals days. Don’t expect his usage rates to change a ton either as Lugo always throws his curve around 30%.
Lugo may not be the flashiest arm in the league, but he should stabilize what should be an average rotation in Kansas City. He probably gets tabbed as the “de-facto” ace and gets the Opening Day start. The Royals spent a good amount of money on starters in free agency and Lugo is the key arm in the rotation.
