Pitchers and Catchers have reported to Surprise! Baseball is right around the corner and fans will finally get their first taste of game action on February 21. The offseason hasn’t drastically changed the roster for the Kansas City Royals, but there are some new faces in the mix. Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer have joined the 40-man roster with the departure of Brady Singer. Pitchers Noah Cameron and Luinder Avila have been added from the farm system and reliever Carlos Estévez joins the bullpen from free agency.

With only a handful of new additions in the mix, projecting the Royals’ roster may come down more to who won’t be on the Opening Day roster rather than who will. The pitching staff is deep and at least a couple of arms will miss out despite a strong case in their favor. The outfield looks the polar opposite. It’s largely unchanged and names who likely wouldn’t stick in another organization will suit up on Opening Day. That doesn’t mean they can’t prove valuable, but they’ll have to prove some doubters wrong.

Projecting the Royals’ Opening Day roster

Hitters

Locks: SS Bobby Witt Jr., 3B Maikel Garcia, OF Kyle Isbel, 1B Vinnie Pasquantino, 2B Michael Massey, INF Jonathan India, OF Hunter Renfroe, C Salvador Perez, C Freddy Fermin

In the mix: OF MJ Melendez, OF Nelson Velázquez, OF Joey Wiemer, OF Drew Waters, OF Tyler Gentry, UTIL Nick Loftin, OF Dairon Blanco

Nine spots are settled, but the outfield remains very much up in the air. The starting infielders are set. Not just that — the Royals have one more lock on the infield than they have spots to cover. That opens the door for some mixture of Massey, India, and Garcia to dabble in the outfield. As far as outfielders, Isbel and Renfroe can be plugged in as safe bets. Isbel is the most valuable outfielder on the roster and Renfroe’s veteran presence (and contract) will let him start the year in right field.

The rest of the outfield should be seen as a competition from day one. MJ Melendez is probably pretty safe, but a poor spring might be enough to send him off to Omaha to open the season. The 26-year-old former top prospect has two options remaining. Despite the possibility, I don’t expect Melendez to miss the Opening Day roster. He more likely will open the season in more of a platoon role alongside the right-handed Wiemer. That makes four big-league outfielders and leaves two additional bench spots. The infield is deep, but Nick Loftin is the only other true infield depth piece to land on the bench, notching him one.

The final spot comes down between Gentry, Velázquez, Waters, and Blanco. Of the four, spring performance should truly be the deciding factor. All four have offered up some big-league time in the last two seasons. Velázquez has seen the most success but was not great in his 2024 look. Gentry has been great in the minors up until last season’s blip in strikeout rate, and Waters hasn’t been able to force himself into the picture after a solid big-league debut with Kansas City. Gentry and Velázquez seem the most likely of the four. In this projection, Gentry gets the nod thanks to a better defensive profile and better on-base ability.

Pitchers

Locks: Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Michael Lorenzen, Kris Bubic, Lucas Erceg, Hunter Harvey, Carlos Estévez, John Schreiber, Alec Marsh

In the mix: Angel Zerpa, Sam Long, James McArthur (INJ), Kyle Wright (INJ), Carlos Hernández, Chris Stratton, Evan Sisk, Steven Cruz, Daniel Lynch IV

The rotation is set. It would be a huge surprise to see anyone claim the fifth starter spot over Kris Bubic. The Royals will let the competition go through spring, but it’s Bubic’s job to lose. In the pen, six spots are set. The back four of Harvey, Erceg, Estévez, and Schreiber will anchor the bullpen in 2025. Long relief arm, Alec Marsh, will offer some protection to the rotation and could make spot starts where needed.

That’s 10 spots settled in this projection, leaving three others to be filled. Angel Zerpa and Daniel Lynch IV will compete as lefties for a spot. Lynch looked great last year, but Zerpa did as well and has high-octane stuff that could give him an edge. Giving Zerpa the spot leaves two open bullpen slots and four arms to choose from. Chris Stratton is owed $4 million. Carlos Hernández and Sam Long are each out of options. Finally, Lynch has an option remaining but pitched well down the stretch in 2024.

The options will matter here. The Royals will play the long game, prepping for a 162-game season. For that reason, Lynch could find his way to Omaha to open the year. James McArthur and Kyle Wright are recovering from injury and will likely head there as well. The decision gets more difficult from there. Sam Long was fantastic in 2024 and seems the safest to repeat that showing. From there, it’s a choice between Chris Stratton and Carlos Hernández. Hernández is younger, coming off a strong season a year ago, and won’t be a free agent until 2028. All those factors give him the edge with Stratton departing either via trade or DFA.

Opening Day Lineups and Pitching Staff

The Royals start their season against the Cleveland Guardians on March 27. Below are projected Opening Day lineups based on the roster projection above.

Pitching Rotation

1. LHP Cole Ragans
2. RHP Seth Lugo
3. RHP Michael Wacha
4. RHP Michael Lorenzen
5. LHP Kris Bubic

Bullpen

1. Alec Marsh
2. Angel Zerpa
3. Carlos Hernández
4. Sam Long
5. John Schreiber
6. Hunter Harvey
7. Carlos Estévez
8. Lucas Erceg