Mozzicato was a bit of a surprise when he was drafted 7th overall by the Royals in the 2021 MLB Draft. After a bit of a disappointing first-year campaign, he only improved in 2023. Mozzicato lowered his walk rate and struck out batters at one of the highest rates in the Minor Leagues prior to a mid-season promotion to High-A Quad Cities. These improvements have shown why some believe Mozzicato has frontline starter potential, although there are notable concerns as well.

Season Stats:

2022 (Low-A): 19 GS, 69.0 IP, 4.30 ERA, 4.74 FIP, 29.1% K%, 16.7% BB%

2023 (Low-A): 12 GS, 56.1 IP, 3.04 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 36.2% K%, 14.5% BB%

2023 (High-A): 9 GS, 36.2 IP, 7.12 ERA, 6.31 FIP, 25.3% K%, 18.5% BB%

Although the transition from Low-A to High-A was a difficult one, Mozzicato still ranked in the top 100 of all High-A starters with a 25.3% strikeout rate. His strikeout stuff didn’t get too lost in the shuffle. He also started throwing a slider, which is a welcome development for his future prospects as a starter. As has been the case since his debut in 2022, the success for Mozzicato seems to focus most on his ability to command his stuff in the zone.

Early on in 2023, he would start to lose control by around the 4th inning. By mid-season, that was happening more in the fifth or even sixth inning of starts. The organization did a great job in 2023 of lengthening their young starter deeper into games while also allowing him to work on commanding his fastball up in the zone. Much has been made about Mozzicato’s fastball velocity, an area that didn’t improve in 2023. He still sits in the low-90s with his 4-seamer. Despite the velocity, he creates a very good vertical approach angle (VAA) with the pitch which can make it impactful still despite the low velocity. That great VAA is a good sign that Mozzicato can become even more effective as he adds muscle and potentially more velocity in the process.

Scouting Grades:

Fastball: 40/50

Curveball: 55/60

Slider: 40/55

Changeup: 45/50

Control: 45/50

Best Case Scenario:

The best-case scenario for Frank Mozzicato is one that sees him develop into a true frontline ace in the major leagues. He’s still just 20-years-old but that ability is certainly in there somewhere. The traits on his fastball are good enough that one can see the path for that pitch to become at least average (or maybe even a tick above) if he can add a few ticks of velocity. His curveball is already an impressive out pitch without much more development at all. The other two offerings give him a nice arsenal to rely on with the focus now on harnessing that arsenal in the right way.

Mozzicato should repeat with High-A Quad Cities to start the 2024 season but could find his way to the Major Leagues as early as 2025 if it can all come together. He’s a lanky lefty and once it starts to come together, it should do so rather quickly. More likely, Mozzicato is likely to get a chance to debut in 2026 with the Major League club somewhere in the starting rotation.

Worst Case Scenario:

The worst-case scenario for Mozzicato is about as bad as the best-case scenario is good. There doesn’t seem to be much of a middle ground with the young lefty. If he can’t figure out his command, there’s little chance he will stick even as a back-end starter in the big leagues. In that case, there’s a chance he could become a mid-inning reliever if he can command the baseball over a shorter, single-inning workload. Unfortunately, his fastball wouldn’t work too well in high-leverage situations without a serious uptick in velocity.

If the Royals are unable to improve Mozzicato’s command as he progresses further into the minor leagues, then he will likely become the latest in a long string of failed pitchers taken by the Royals in the first round.