Henry Williams was the Padres tenth best prospect when the Kansas City Royals acquired him last summer. He joined the system in the Scott Barlow trade and immediately saw strong results for Low-A Columbia. Williams was a third-round pick by the Padres in 2022. While recovering from Tommy John Surgery, Williams missed most of the 2022 season. He put together five starts for the Fireflies in 2023 with a strong 3.38 ERA. The ceiling could be limited here, as Williams hasn’t quite shown a strong ability to strike guys out or limit walks. Regardless, he’s still just 21 years old with upside to find.
Season Stats:
2023 (Low-A, SD): 12 GS, 42.1 IP, 5.74 ERA, 5.83 FIP, 22.0% K%, 11.5% BB%
2023 (Low-A, KC): 5 GS, 24.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 5.16 FIP, 22.8% K%, 12.9% BB%
Williams is a good upside project for the Royals to work on. He joins fellow arms Frank Mozzicato and Hiro Wyatt, both of whom are also from the state of Connecticut. He commands a fastball, curveball, and changeup. The curveball is by far his best offering. The changeup is around average but his fastball needs some work. Much of his fastball struggles can be chalked up to a return from Tommy John, but it’s worth monitoring.
Williams did a great job limiting the walks in his only notable season at Duke. Since making his debut as a professional, that command hasn’t quite been the same. FanGraphs gives Williams a future 55-grade command due to the potential he showed in college, and the Royals will need him to get back to it for him to be successful. With another full offseason between Williams and surgery, he could see some added velocity and improved command to start the 2024 season.
Scouting Grades:
Fastball: 45/55
Curveball: 50/55
Changeup: 40/45
Command: 45/50
Best Case scenario
When the Royals acquired Williams, they were able to snag a guy they’ve followed since his time at Duke. In those days, he was hitting 94-95 with his fastball. If he can get that velocity back post-surgery then the starter upside will rise. Of course, getting back to good command will be a large factor in that as well. There’s a Touki Toussaint type of upside here, somewhere between a back-end starter and a swingman from the ‘pen.
Worst Case Scenario
There’s a lot of reliever risk with Henry Williams. Between limited NCAA samples and a return from surgery, the Royals certainly targeted the upside at the cost of a lot of risk. If the command never returns to its former self and the fastball velocity sticks in the low-90s, Williams will struggle as he reaches the upper minor leagues. By that point, if so, a move to the bullpen will make sense in hopes he can be more effective over a smaller, single-inning workload.
