John Rave has been in the Royals’ farm system since 2019. He was drafted as a 21-year-old outfield prospect out of Illinois. He was a fifth-rounder that summer, and shared the 2019 draft class with other notable Royals, including Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, Anthony Veneziano, and Alec Marsh. Rave will enter his age-26 season in 2024 and to this point has been unable to carve a path to the Major Leagues. Last season looked like a revelation for Rave, who saw a serious down-tick in strikeouts. The punchouts have been his largest limiting factor to this point of his pro career.
Season Stats:
2019 (A): .253/.321/.339, 7.7% BB%, 29.6% K%, 97 wRC+
2021 (A+): .252/.352/.453, 11.8% BB%, 28.9% K%, 121 wRC+
2022 (AA): .262/.364/.414, 13.7% BB%, 24.9% K%, 102 wRC+
2023 (AA): .275/.379/.430, 14.4% BB%, 24.6% K%, 117 wRC+
2023 (AAA): .236/.326/.376, 11.9% BB%, 27.8% K%, 76 wRC+
Rave was promoted to Triple-A Omaha in early June of 2023. He proceeded to get on base in his first 20 games for the Storm Chasers that summer. It wasn’t Rave’s first taste of Triple-A pitching, but he only played in 11 games for Omaha in 2022. Eventually, Rave cooled, but from his ’23 Omaha debut through the end of July, he had slashed .288/.388/.464. Unfortunately, August was abysmal and September wasn’t much better. The poor finale to the season cooled some of Rave’s momentum toward the big leagues.
He’s improved his strikeout rate but that’s where he lives and dies at the plate, much of the time. When Rave was successful for Omaha last season, he was striking out around 22% of the time. In the season’s final two months, he was back over 30%. The power output is never going to carry Rave, but he can make enough hard contact to impact the game if he isn’t striking out. There’s a sound floor from Rave, as he plays solid defense in center field. Inconsistency has plagued him, both in his strikeouts and his patience at the plate. If he could find a steady approach at the plate, he’d be a better bet to make his way to the big leagues. The Royals invited him to 2024 big league camp as a non-roster invitee for Spring Training.
Scouting Grades:
Hit: 45/50
Game Power: 35/40
Raw Power: 40/40
Speed: 55/55
Glove: 55/55
Arm: 50/50
Best Case Scenario
The best case for Rave doesn’t look all that different from the current Royals center fielder, Kyle Isbel. Isbel has found his way as a strong defensive outfielder and that carried him to a 1.1 fWAR in 2023. Unfortunately with the bat, Isbel tends to strike out too much and doesn’t provide much power at all. If Rave could limit the strikeouts consistently, he’d probably walk into more power output and could become something similar to Lamonte Wade Jr. at the next level. Good defense in center field will always carry some prospect value, but the bat needs to come a long way to truly last in the MLB.
Worst Case Scenario
If Rave’s best case is similar to Kyle Isbel, it doesn’t bode well for what a worst-case scenario might be. Isbel is already a rough month away from the roster bubble himself. If Rave falls back into the high strikeout rate and fails to make enough contact, he’s destined to be just another quad-A outfielder who provides some depth from afar in Omaha. I like his defense, but it isn’t strong enough to carry him regardless of the bat (a la Michael A. Taylor). The chance that Rave becomes a regular MLB outfielder is lower than the chance that he becomes organizational depth.
