Luinder Avila was quietly becoming a workhorse of an arm in the Royals farm system before an injury last season. Now through just his age-21 season, Avila has already compiled 331.0 minor league innings throughout five seasons. He was signed in March 2018 out of Venezuela at just 16 years old. Since then, he’s developed into a full-time starter with a well-rounded pitch mix and promising potential. In 2023 he spent the full season at High-A Quad Cities. Over 20 starts he owned a 3.56 FIP. That season-long mark was anchored by a solid start. Avila made seven starts with a 2.91 FIP through the end of May.

Season Stats:

2021 (Low-A): 6 GS, 26.1 IP, 4.10 ERA, 3.18 FIP, 21.1% K%, 5.3% BB%

2022 (Low-A): 26 GS, 115.0 IP, 4.54 ERA, 4.80 FIP, 19.4% K%, 9.8% BB%

2023 (High-A): 20 GS, 108.2 IP, 4.39 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 21.6% K%, 9.3% BB%

According to FanGraphs, Avila’s arsenal includes a fastball, curveball, and splitter. At times last season, he also looked to mix in a slider. Despite the appearance, it’s still possible that Avila simply had some arm-slot struggles and delivery inconsistencies that changed the shape of his curveball throughout his starts. At times, the pitch was a nice, high-arching breaker. Then other times, it was a late-breaking offering with some horizontal fade. Most notable last season was Avila’s development of the fastball.

To start 2023, Avila was regularly hanging around the 92-93mph range with his four-seamer. In May and June, his focus on improving the heater was evident. He deliberately targeted the upper half of the strikezone more than we’ve seen prior. By the end of the year, it wasn’t uncommon to see Avila touching 96 mph in his starts. That development of the fastball — including his command up in the zone — should only make his secondary offerings that much more effective. It raises his ceiling some, even if there remains notable reliever risk.

Scouting Grades:

Fastball: 50/55

Curveball: 45/55

Splitter: 40/45

Command: 45/50

Best Case Scenario

There’s still a fair chance that Avila can stick as a starting pitcher as he continues through the minor leagues. The Royals have yet to show any indication that they’d like to move him to the bullpen, and his results as a starter have been strong. Regardless, by the time he reaches the major leagues a transition to the bullpen could make some sense. Avila has a third offering but relies so heavily on the fastball/curveball combination that it doesn’t impact the game often. With a swap to the bullpen, his fastball and curveball combination could play up even more. Avila already added a couple of ticks of velocity in 2023. A move to the ‘pen someday as a high-leverage reliever could add a couple more.

Worst Case Scenario

Avila has been sturdy thus far, avoiding any serious injury. He spent some time on the 15-day IL last summer but upon his return looked much like himself. That good health paired with a strong combo of stuff in his primary two offerings gives him a good baseline floor. Barring serious changes, Avila looks like he will certainly pitch in the major leagues someday, but the range of roles could be anywhere from back-end starter to low-leverage depth reliever. If his fastball falls a bit back toward what we saw in 2022 and he never develops the splitter further, the latter seems more likely.