I’m not certain anyone anticipated Mason Barnett leading the Royals’ farm system in strikeouts last season. He finished the year with 137 over 114.1 innings pitched. He’s quickly made a name for himself as a real pitching prospect just one season after being selected in the third round of the 2022 MLB Draft. He offers a strong four-pitch mix and the command looked better than expected last season.

Season Stats:

2022 (Low-A): 3 G, 7.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.56 FIP, 52.4% K%, 4.8% BB%

2023 (High-A): 16 GS, 82.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 27.7% K%, 11.2% BB%

2023 (AA): 7 GS, 32.2 IP, 3.58 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 31.4% K%, 8.8% BB%

Barnett shot through the farm system in 2023, spending much of his year in High-A before making his way to Northwest Arkansas. Upon reaching Double-A, he was actually better in many ways. He finished his season with a very strong 18.3% K-BB% while showing some durability. He was one of just 11 Kansas City farmhands to pitch at least 100 innings last season. Among them, he had the best FIP (3.23) and second-best SO/9 (10.75). That strong showing earned him the Paul Splittorff Pitcher of the Year Award.

The mixture of strikeout ability and solid command we saw from Barnett last season is a welcome sign. The farm system has been relatively unable to develop effective starting pitching for some time. Barnett signals an improvement in that regard, as someone who was drafted under the new pitching regime then immediately saw success in the system. Repeating that performance next season will be important, but there’s a ton to like thus far from Barnett.

Scouting Grades:

Fastball: 50/55

Curveball: 45/50

Slider: 55/60

Changeup: 45/50

Command: 45/55

Best Case Scenario:

There’s a good ceiling here for Barnett, thanks to his strong fastball and slider combination. There’s more to lean on, including his curve and changeup but those two are the clear best offerings. Many saw the command as the largest concern out of the draft, but he improved there greatly in 2023. If he can maintain that command, there’s a clear path to a mid-rotation starter with upside. I liken him a bit to Drew Rasmussen, but I like his chances to be a full-time starter from the jump.

Worst Case Scenario:

If the command falls off for Barnett, then the ceiling is going to start shrinking. He has a solid baseline thanks to his fastball and slider. That baseline could lead him into a SIRP role somewhere around the Dylan Coleman mold. His velocity is mid-90s right now, but over shorter innings, it could probably tick up a bit. As long as the command stays on track, the reliever risk doesn’t concern me too much with Barnett.