Matt Sauer joined the Royals organization in December’s Rule 5 draft. He was selected out of the Yankees organization and had spent his entire professional career with New York to this point. Sauer was a highly touted high school pitcher before being drafted in the second round of the 2017 MLB Draft. His progression through the minor leagues has been slowed a handful of times, either due to a canceled 2020 season or injury. In all to this point, he’s amassed 381.2 minor league innings over six seasons. For essentially all of his time in the minors, Sauer has been a starting pitcher. As a Rule 5 selection, he will likely start 2024 in the Royals’ bullpen.

Season Stats:

2018 (A-): 13 G, 67.0 IP, 3.90 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 15.9% K%, 6.4% BB%

2019 (A): 2 G, 8.2 IP, 2.08 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 20.5% K%, 15.4% BB%

2021 (Low-A): 15 G, 66.1 IP, 4.34 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 25.6% K%, 10.8% BB%

2021 (High-A): 8 G, 45.0 IP, 5.20 ERA, 4.85 FIP, 26.4% K%, 7.8% BB%

2022 (High-A): 18 G, 88.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 26.5% K%, 9.3% BB%

2022 (AA): 4 G, 20.2 IP, 7.84 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 37.0% K%, 7.6% BB%

2023 (AA): 14 G, 68.1 IP, 3.42 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 29.5% K%, 10.3% BB%

Although he will likely start the season in the Kansas City bullpen, Sauer should eventually get a shot to prove himself in the starting rotation if he’s successful. He’s been successful in that role throughout his MiLB career and there’s a Brad Keller-esque path forward ahead of Sauer. Sauer leans most on a strong fastball/slider combination. He usually sits 93-95mph with his fastball but has touched a tad higher at times. His slider has a tight, late-breaking action in the upper 80s.

Throughout his minor league career, Sauer has fielded strong strikeout numbers. Those numbers took a serious turn for even better after a 2022 promotion to Double-A. There was some regression in 2023, but it was still Sauer’s strongest showing thus far. Although he strikes out his share of hitters and does a good job limiting walks, the upside isn’t going to put him in the front of a major league rotation. More likely, he could settle in as a back-end piece or an effective swingman long-term. Health is a limiting factor, and the Royals will continue to ease him in as the Yankees did last season to keep him healthy.

Scouting Grades:

Fastball: 50/55

Slider: 55/60

Changeup: 45/50

Command: 50/50

Best Case Scenario

There’s a scenario in which Matt Sauer pitches from the starting rotation to open 2025. If he has a strong debut in 2024 out of the ‘pen and shows he can carry over the success from last season in the minors, that’s clearly what the Royals were hoping for when they selected him in December. The best case is likely a mid-rotation arm who can provide steady innings and avoid mistakes. When searching for a comp, I settled on another arm formerly of the Yankees organization: Phil Hughes.

Worst Case Scenario

Sauer has the draft pedigree and the stuff to stick somewhere in the big leagues. As good as his fastball/slider combination can be, it seems likely he can succeed at least in a single-inning relief role. The true worst case revolves around health. If Sauer can’t stay healthy, then he will obviously struggle to return value. His big frame could help him with that long-term, but it’s overall a rather safe floor for a pretty low investment cost by the Royals.