Noah Cameron has been one of the premier strikeout artists ever since joining the Kansas City Royals organization. At the same time, he has some of the very best command among all pitching prospects in the farm system. That’s a promising combination for a lefty starter. The biggest shortfall thus far has been mostly building up to a starter’s workload. Cameron underwent Tommy John Surgery before the 2021 MLB Draft which has understandably slowed his career progression.

Season Stats:

2022 (Low-A): 7GS, 29.0IP, 3.72 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 33.6% K%, 7.8% BB%

2022 (High-A): 9GS, 31.0IP, 3.48 ERA, 1.77 FIP, 41.4% K%, 5.5% BB

2023 (High-A): 7GS, 35.0IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 40.8% K%, 6.3% BB%

2023 (AA): 17GS, 72.1IP, 6.10 ERA, 5.41 FIP, 22.8% K%, 8.0% BB

Among pitchers with at least 30IP last season, Cameron’s K-BB% of 34.5% at High-A was third, just behind Yankees’ prospect Drew Thorpe (35.5%). Cameron’s xFIP of 1.91 over that same span of innings also ranked third among all minor league pitchers, behind only Thorpe and Jackson Jobe. That strong showing earned him a promotion to Northwest Arkansas. Cameron’s first outing was fantastic, going seven scoreless. After that, however, the wheels fell off a bit.

Cameron also missed a month or so last season for unspecified reasons. He wasn’t on the injured list but also wasn’t pitching. Perhaps that was to save his arm, but it certainly threw a wrench in his season success. It’s impossible to ignore the ceiling that Cameron has. That combination of strikeout ability, paired with great command is rare and usually translates to good Major League success. That could very well be the case for Cameron if he can get back on track next season against stronger minor league competition.

Scouting Grades:

Fastball: 45/50

Curveball: 50/55

Changeup: 55/60

Command: 55/60

Best Case Scenario:

The best-case scenario for Noah Cameron is rather good. There’s a frontline starter upside here if he can continue building velocity on his fastball. Sure, he struggled immensely once reaching Double-A but it’s impossible to ignore the strikeout ability. Since 2006, just 30 pitchers have fewer than 55 walks and at least 230 strikeouts over at least 170 minor league innings. Among them are Joe Musgrove, Chris Paddack, Shane Bieber, Joe Ryan, and Noah Cameron.

Worst Case Scenario:

Cameron touched the mid-90s with rarity in 2023. More often he sat in the lower 90s. If the velocity can’t continue to build, that could limit his ceiling as a starter. We already saw it impact results some over a larger sample at Double-A last season. Over 72.1 innings, Cameron’s SO/9 was a career-low 9.2. At that pace, he looks more like a back-end starter with limited upside, unless he transitions to the bullpen with hopes of finding more velocity over single-inning outings.