Oscar Rayo was signed by the Royals as part of their 2019 international class. He’s now 22 years old and a few years into his professional career. Rayo has spent some time both as a reliever and a starter. Toward the end of 2023, he looked to really settle into that starting role with some outstanding results. Rayo finished 2023 with 71.1 IP. Over those innings, he walked just 12 batters and allowed one home run. There wasn’t elite strikeout ability over that workload, but that sort of command and soft contact is going to carry Rayo far.

Season Stats:

2021 (DSL): 9 G, 20.2 IP, 3.92 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 30.5% K%, 3.7% BB%

2022 (DSL): 5 G, 17.0 IP, 0.53 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 34.9% K%, 4.8% BB%

2022 (Low-A): 8 G, 23.0 IP, 3.91 ERA, 5.28 FIP, 20.2% K%, 6.1% BB%

2023 (Low-A): 23 G, 71.1 IP, 3.15 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 22.8% K%, 4.2% BB%

Rayo has quietly put himself on the map as an intriguing young lefty in the farm system. There was strong strikeout ability early in the Dominican Summer League but it hasn’t quite translated as well to the states. With that said, the command hasn’t gone anywhere at all, and Rayo continues to move through the system. He signed as an older international prospect. Where many players sign at age 16 or 17, Rayo was 19 years old when he agreed to a deal with the Royals. For that reason, he’s still just in Low-A as a 22-year-old.

He should get a chance to test the High-A waters to start 2024. It could be in the bullpen, or in the rotation. He’s done both regularly in the minor leagues. With a strong pitch mix, he profiles well as a lefty starter. It’s a low-90s fastball alongside a curveball, slider, and changeup. Rayo reminds me some of Jesus Luzardo seven years ago pitching in high school. Luzardo, of course, could toss it into the upper 90s by the time he was drafted and that makes a strong difference.

Scouting Grades:

Fastball: 40/50

Curveball: 45/45

Slider: 40/45

Changeup: 45/50

Command: 50/55

Best Case Scenario

It’s difficult to imagine Rayo becoming anything near the prospect that Luzardo became over time. The velocity simply isn’t there. Still, there’s a chance with more time and refinement that Rayo could improve his stuff enough to raise the ceiling. Right now, the path forward reminds me more of Angel Zerpa, despite the comp above. Like Zerpa, Rayo doesn’t offer overpowering stuff. Instead, he lives on great command and limits hard contact.

Worst Case Scenario

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Rayo struggle immensely in the upper minor leagues. His stuff has worked against Low-A competition but might not be as successful once he reaches Double-A and above. For that reason, the chance that Rayo falls off the radar as organizational depth in the lower minors seems just as likely as the chance he becomes a big leaguer. It’s an intriguing profile that deserves some attention, albeit with tempered expectations.