Tyler Tolbert has made a name for himself as a burner around the bases. He quietly entered the farm system in 2019. The lost 2020 season slowed his development through the system, making him an older prospect heading into 2024. After finishing 2022 with a perfect 60 for 60 in stolen base attempts, Tolbert was starting to make a name for himself among the Royals’ fanbase. 2023 saw him make his first attempt at Double-A. He flourished, especially over the second half of the season. That showing culminated in a George Brett Hitter of the Year Award.
Season Stats:
2019 (R): .221/.349/.250, 12.6% BB%, 23.6% K%, 81 wRC+
2021 (Low-A): .219/.352/.357, 14.7% BB%, 27.4% K%, 100 wRC+
2022 (High-A): .224/.313/.340, 10.6% BB%, 24.2% K%, 85 wRC+
2023 (AA): .276/.336/.419, 7.0% BB%, 22.1% K%, 99 wRC+
2023 was a quiet breakout for Tolbert. Prior, he had made a name as a speedster on the basepaths with a healthy walk rate but limited potential at the plate. He had struggled to make contact to start his professional career and the power wasn’t there. A lot of that remained the same to start his 2023 season with the Naturals. However, over the second half, he became a new player entirely.
From July 1 through the end of the season, Tolbert appeared in 59 games. Over that span, he slashed .298/.351/.471. His ISO was up to .172. Although his walk rate dropped, his strikeout rate dropped even more. Tolbert was swinging more often, making contact more often, and it paid off at the plate. Perhaps most impressive of all, the increased production at the plate coincided with Tolbert moving into center field nearly full-time. He’s a rising name in the farm system despite his age and certainly someone to watch next season.
Scouting Grades:
Hit: 50/50
Game Power: 40/40
Raw Power: 45/45
Speed: 70/70
Glove: 55/55
Arm: 50/50
Best Case Scenario
What do you call Peter Bourjos with more stolen bases? The answer could be Tyler Tolbert someday. The former Angels product put together a 9 fWAR career over the better part of ten major league seasons. The move to center field was a good one for Tolbert in 2023. It opens up an easier path to Kansas City, as Bobby Witt Jr. has shortstop locked down. Tolbert has the speed to cover the vast reaches of Kauffman Stadium and if his improvements with the bat hold up, there could be plenty of value here.
Worst Case Scenario
The worst case with Tolbert is likely a Terrence Gore role for the Royals but with the ability to play more often. Gore only played one notable season, appearing in 37 games for the 2019 Royals. Before that, he provided plenty of value off the bench in the team’s playoff runs. Tolbert can certainly provide the same sort of stolen base upside as Gore. At the plate, I liken his talent more to Jarrod Dyson than Gore. At worst, Tolbert can provide bench depth and value in small samples.
