Tyson Guerrero was a 12th-round pick by the Royals in the 2021 MLB Draft. Before the draft, he had a successful final year at the University of Washington. In 2021 he started 11 games for the Huskies and owned a 2.96 ERA. He showed impressive command with a 2.78 SO/BB mark that season. Upon reaching the pros, the success wasn’t quite there for Guerrero. He only pitched 17 innings in 2021 after the draft but debuted at High-A in 2022. An injury sidelined him for most of the year and the small sample of results wasn’t impressive. Then, 2023 was a revelation. Guerrero was one of the very best starters in the entire organization. He’s a rising name entering 2024.
Season Stats:
2021 (Low-A): 3 G, 7.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 8.12 FIP, 16.7% K%, 11.1% BB%
2022 (High-A): 6 G, 23.1 IP, 6.17 ERA, 5.80 FIP, 20.8% K%, 9.4% BB%
2023 (High-A): 18 G, 84.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 31.0% K%, 8.5% BB%
2023 (AA): 3 G, 11.0 IP, 6.55 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 30.6% K%, 10.2% BB%
Over the largest pro sample to date, Guerrero showed off some of the most impressive strikeout stuff in the entire farm system. His 30.9% strikeout rate was the fifth-best mark of all pitchers in the organization (min. 50 IP) and just behind Frank Mozzicato (31.2%) and David Sandlin (32.1%). Perhaps most impressive of all was the consistency of that strikeout ability even after a promotion to Northwest Arkansas. Although the sample size was very small, it looked like Guerrero would’ve found success at Double-A as well.
Guerrero lives on a vicious slider and outstanding command. The fastball can be good but inconsistent. When he’s using it well, it could be an above-average offering as it stands now. The changeup is inconsistent, but more refinement of his arsenal could raise the ceiling even more for Guerrero. His fastball sits in the mid-90s at times and I believe the potential for the pitch can be even higher with some refinement.
Scouting Grades:
Fastball: 45/55
Slider: 50/60
Changeup: 45/50
Command: 45/60
Best Case Scenario
The upside for Guerrero could land him in a big league rotation, but probably more toward the back-end of a starting five. More likely, I think Guerrero could settle in eventually into a swing starter type role or a very good single inning reliever. Colin Poche pitched in over 60 innings for the Rays last season with a 2.23 ERA. That’s the type of reliever Guerrero could become thanks to his impressive command and excellent slider.
Worst Case Scenario
There’s a reason Guerrero was a late-round pick. There’s also a reason he struggled at times in the lower minors. His stuff has been inconsistent at times. When his command is on, he’s lights out. On the days where he doesn’t have his best control, Guerrero can be hit around and gives up his share of earned runs. Refinement is needed to truly help him reach his potential, and he’s already a 24 year old prospect pitching in Double-A. No matter what, he seems like sound bullpen depth once he’s ready for the big leagues. There’s somewhat of a safe floor with how good his fastball/slider combination can be.
