Before the season, I ranked all 15 teams in the American League based on how I thought they’d perform. To say things changed a lot in four and a half months would be an understatement. Teams many thought would contend, like the Rangers, have been awful, and teams who were expected to be bottom-feeders, like the Royals, are right in the thick of a heated playoff race. Today I’m ranking the nine true playoff contenders in the American League from least likely to win the pennant to the favorite.

9- Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have been about as average as a team can be in 2024. The team hasn’t felt the same since the unfortunate Wander Franco situation that hit them this time last season. They have good enough pitching to keep them in contention for a playoff spot, but with how good the AL East is they look like they’ll be missing the postseason for the first time since 2018.

8- Seattle Mariners

This franchise might be cursed. How can a team with the most quality starts (77) find themselves on the outside of the postseason? If the season ended today, the Mariners would be the first team to lead the MLB in team ERA and miss the playoffs since the 2012 Rays. That isn’t even being entirely fair to the Rays, if the MLB had its current playoff format that season they would have made the playoffs. Hard to imagine this team catches the Astros considering they have a worse team batting average than the White Sox.

7- Boston Red Sox

It feels weird to type this, but Boston will miss the playoffs for a third consecutive season. The Red Sox were not expected to be much of anything this season, but a lineup with bats such as Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, and Tyler O’Neill have kept them in the hunt. If they had kept a guy like Chris Sale they’d be dangerous, but as things sit today I see them just missing out on the playoffs.

6- Houston Astros

After a woeful start to the season, the Astros are in prime position for a shot at their eighth consecutive ALCS appearance. Houston was sitting at 25-33 heading into June, wondering if their window had closed and it was time to sell. Since then, the club has gone 42-23 and looks just as strong as before. I think the limitations at starting pitchers will prevent them from making another deep playoff run, but counting this team out is a dangerous game.

5- Kansas City Royals

What a difference a year makes. This time last year the Royals were in the midst of their seventh consecutive losing season and third 100-loss season since the core of their World Series team departed. Coming into the season the thought was the AL Central would be weak and the Royals could compete because of that, but it’s been quite the opposite. Both Cleveland and Minnesota have proven to be contenders, and yet this Royals team finds themselves right beside them in the standings thanks to a fantastic year from the starting rotation and an MVP-caliber season from Bobby Witt Jr. The bullpen is shaky, but if they get hot this team can send anyone packing in October.

4- Minnesota Twins

Don’t let past playoff failures fool you, these Twins have what it takes to win the AL. After a mediocre start, Minnesota has been the team we saw in 2023. Pablo López and Joee Ryan have both been solid front-of-the-rotation pieces to complement a lethal lineup. I put them slightly above the Royals due to their head-to-head dominance this season.

3- Cleveland Guardians

When it comes to pitching, nobody does it quite like the Guardians. Year after year they lose star players to free agency or injury and I sell my stock on them, just for them to be at the top of the league again. While the bats have cooled off post-all-star break, the Guardians have the best bullpen in all of baseball. They may lack the big names other contenders have, but this is a true contender come October.

2- New York Yankees

After disappointing in 2023, the Bronx Bombers are contending for the fall classic. October baseball often comes down to star power and pitching depth, and the Yankees have both. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are good enough by themselves, but if they get a playoff series in a hitter-friendly park with Gerrit Cole shutting the opposing lineup down, this team could win it all.

1- Baltimore Orioles

The team I ranked first before the season stays in my top spot. While they currently trail the Yankees in the standings, this Baltimore Orioles team is the most complete the AL has to offer. From a loaded lineup consisting of Gunnar Henderson and rookie of the year favorite, Colton Cowser, to a pitching staff headlined by ace Corbin Burnes, the Orioles are built for October baseball.

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