Back in early December, I undertook the task of evaluating every player on the Kansas City Royals 40-man roster. That exercise included players now gone from the organization, including Edward Olivares, Taylor Clarke, and others. It also didn’t include most of a busy offseason plan put into effect by General Manager J.J. Picollo. With spring training getting underway, it seems like the perfect time to re-evaluate the roster. Much like last time, this exercise is centered around a handful of key factors. Those factors include ability (hit tool, power, defensive ability, and speed), positional value, age, injury risk, and team control. Here are the rankings:
1. SS Bobby Witt Jr. — Value Score: 54.0
This is the obvious one, right? Since the last update, Witt’s value has only gone up. He scored a 49.0 value score back in early December. This time around, he’s under team control for at least seven seasons which boosts his value even more. The Royals have a superstar with some long-term contract security, something they haven’t had since George Brett.
2. 3B Maikel Garcia — Value Score: 36.0
Garcia slumped a lot to finish last season, but he was good to start the year. He’s a bit out of place at third base but has shown off good power and loft this winter in the Venezuelan Winter League. In all, he slashed .424/.543/.576 for La Guaira. It’s worth mentioning that Garcia has always done well in Venezuela and the competition is much less than the big leagues. With that said, he hasn’t quite hit that level of power since we saw him find a power surge for Omaha back in 2022.
3. 1B Vinnie Pasquantino — Value Score: 35.0
Pasquantino will provide a sizeable boost to an offense that was top 15 in the major leagues over last season’s second half. He’s arguably the most well-rounded hitter in the organization. Pasquantino provides a great approach and limits strikeouts while hitting for both average and power. It looked like he was slumping before the injury last season, but was also the victim of a very low BABIP. Don’t put too much stock into those numbers.
4. LHP Cole Ragans — Value Score: 33.75
Ragans is Kansas City’s first consensus top-30 starter since perhaps Danny Duffy. The entire league has taken notice of the lefty’s strong performance last year and there’s little reason to believe out there that he will suddenly fall back to the wayside. He could be the team’s Opening Day starter, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see that honor go to either of the offseason’s big signees. Ragans is a lefty starter who misses bats and throws triple digits. That combination is going to offer immense value no matter what.
5. RHP Seth Lugo — Value Score: 33.6
Lugo hasn’t been a starter for too long, but his arsenal grades surprisingly well across the board. His fastball velocity last season was just 93.3 mph — 38th percentile in MLB — but the run value according to Baseball Savant was 97th percentile. He has solid command and a good pitch mix to lean on. The curveball is his best offering, but the sneaky good fastball is truly what helps boost his value. On the surface, he looks like a good number three option. Digging deeper finds the potential for a number two in a good rotation and the Royals paid for that upside this winter.
6. RHP Brady Singer — Value Score: 33.0
Singer has been introducing a 4-seam fastball this winter. Should he use it (that’s a tall task if recent history holds up) then it should help increase his margin for error. There’s no questioning that Singer can be a very good starter in the big leagues. We already saw as much in 2022. The margin of error is simply very small when he only throws the sinker/slider combination. Mixing in a four-seamer and continuing use of the changeup around 6% should help him to be more consistent and will only make him better.
7. 2B Michael Massey — Value Score: 33.0
Michael Massey is the team’s starting second baseman. He was one of the better power-hitting second basemen in the American League over last season’s second half. The Royals are banking on that power and defensive ability to carry a lot of his value in 2024 and beyond. The biggest missing link is the approach, which has fallen to the wayside since his promotion to the big leagues. If Massey can rediscover some of that patience at the plate, then his value at the plate will become what the Royals need at second base.
8. CF Kyle Isbel — Value Score: 31.0
Isbel hasn’t gotten a fair shake from fans to this point. He debuted in 2021 and hardly got consistent playing time until May 2022. If you remember, Mike Matheny sat him on the bench for essentially all of April 2022. As Isbel has gotten more consistent time, he’s been able to improve offensively. Last season, he cut his strikeout rate by nearly ten percent and raised his average by 30 points. He’s entering just his age-27 season, coming off a 1.1 fWAR campaign with very strong defense. It’s not that long ago that Isbel slashed .269/.357/.444 for the Storm Chasers and that potential still exists somewhere.
9. LF MJ Melendez — Value Score: 31.0
It’s been said enough how much Melendez settled in over the second half of last season. For him to truly silence the doubters he’ll need to do at least half of that over a full season. The initial plan this offseason for Melendez was to play alongside Nelson Velázquez in Puerto Rico. That didn’t happen, for undisclosed reasons, but the hope is that the team kept him close this winter to continue developing his defense and approach.
10. RF Tyler Gentry — Value Score: 30.0
Gentry was a shoo-in for a starting spot this season when 2023 started. Then he struggled over last year’s first half. He turned it around in dominant fashion after the All-Star Break, but the team acquired Nelson Velázquez, Garrett Hampson, and Hunter Renfroe since then. The deck is stacked against him, but Gentry still offers a lot of team control and a very well-rounded approach at the plate. I have little doubt that Gentry would be a better everyday outfielder than Renfroe, Waters, and Velázquez. Unfortunately, Kansas City has little reason to waste an option and Gentry will need to force the issue early.
11. C Salvador Perez — Value Score: 29.0
Perez was surprisingly good with the bat over most of 2023. After the break, he hit .267. Over a full season, that would be his best mark since his record-setting 2021 campaign. The power will never hit those heights again and he’s an aging player on the decline. With that said, the intangibles Perez offers help to cancel out some of that decline and he should still be a stable force around the middle of Kansas City’s lineup.
12. RHP Michael Wacha — Value Score: 29.0
Wacha the pitcher is very valuable for the Royals this season. Fresh off a 2023 season that saw him pitch to a 3.22 ERA, there’s a good case to be made that he could be the team’s best starter in 2024. Long-term, however, Wacha has little team control. There’s a player option for the 2025 season but a strong showing in 2024 could find Wacha traded at the deadline. He may not be a Royal for more than six months. Still, should Kansas City contend like they hope he should be one of the biggest reasons why and is more valuable in 2024 than this ranking might suggest.
13. UTIL Nick Loftin — Value Score: 29.0
Loftin was on the fast track to a future big-league spot a couple of years ago. Arguments were made that he was the team’s best prospect as recently as 2022. Back then, he was getting time in center field. Since then, he’s bulked up and settled into third base more often. At the same time, Maikel Garcia has grabbed hold of the big league hot corner. That’s made Loftin’s long-term outlook a little more blurry. The team will find a way to fit him in, no question, but it’ll take an injury or trade to truly give Loftin everyday at-bats.
14. OF Nelson Velázquez — Value Score: 28.0
Velázquez has shown incredible power output since joining the Royals at last year’s trade deadline. That’s great and all, but it’s not sustainable. He’s not going to go from quad-A fringe outfielder to the best power-hitting corner outfielder the Royals have had this century. It’s important to proceed with caution here — a lesson Ryan O’Hearn taught us all not long ago. I think his defensive ability is a bit underrated and I expect the Royals will plan on employing him in the field more than his counterpart Hunter Renfroe. The arm is strong and he’s good enough otherwise to provide average value defensively.
15. LHP Kris Bubic — Value Score: 26.8
Bubic led the entire minor league in strikeouts back in 2019. His 185 strikeouts finished just ahead of Joe Ryan and Tarik Skubal. That ability hadn’t shown up in the majors yet but there were glimpses of improvement before his injury last season. This ranking finds a middle ground behind the failures of his early big league career and the promise that we saw last season. Should Bubic come back healthy and perform the same as last season, the Royals might go from an average big-league rotation to a top-half starting five.
16. RHP James McArthur — Value Score: 26.5
McArthur rounds out the standout additions from last season, alongside Ragans and Velázquez. He’s arguably the team’s best reliever entering the 2024 season and is the early favorite to close. With that said, relievers are volatile and rarely consistent. McArthur has a lot of promise, but nothing worth taking to the bank quite yet.
17. RHP Kyle Wright — Value Score: 26.0
Wright has had one strong big league season but hasn’t been an elite starter for most of his big league career. He was a good get by Picollo and the front office, but shouldn’t be seen as 2025’s ace in waiting. He’ll hopefully return next season for his age-29 campaign. By then, he will be two years removed from his standout 2022 season. There’s plenty of promise here, but a very low floor.
18. C Freddy Fermin — Value Score: 26.0
Fermin is a sound backup to Salvy and should be able to provide more innings than a traditional backup would. This is valuable in itself, allowing the Royals to keep their captain well-rested. Fermin was one of the team’s best hitters in last year’s first half but fell off substantially as the season went along. He’s a good backup and should help the team bridge the gap to other catching prospects such as Carter Jensen and Blake Mitchell.
19. OF Drew Waters — Value Score: 26.0
Waters was one of the more promising young hitters for Kansas City entering last year’s Spring Training. He had an impressive .240 ISO in a small 2022 sample size but an oblique injury sidelined him for the start of 2023. As we’ve seen with Adalberto Mondesi, those oblique injuries can linger and it could’ve hampered Waters even after he returned last season. He’s probably lost a step on those competing with him for outfield time, but the book isn’t out on him quite yet.
20. RHP Carlos Hernández — Value Score: 25.8
Hernandez still offers plenty of intrigue with his lively fastball and history of good results. That history, sadly, is plagued by inconsistency. You can hardly count on him to give you any sizeable success. Relievers are volatile and Hernández embodies that as well as anyone else in the bullpen. The upcoming season could go several ways for him. He could be the team’s closer by midseason if he comes out of the gate as strong as he did last year. On the flip side, he could be pitching in Omaha by June. He has one option remaining.
