We’re practicing humility here because I am bound to get some wrong, but that won’t stop me from trying. The Naturals look to put together a strong squad this 2024 season. The coaching staff is set and I expect many on the club’s roster to reside in the organization’s top 25 prospects.
Meet the Coaches
Manager: Tommy Shields
Pitching Coach: Larry Carter
Hitting Coach: Andy LaRoche
Tommy Shields enters his first season with the Naturals after being promoted to the position from his 2022 bench coach role with the Omaha Storm Chasers. He has experience within the Royals’ system, managing the Burlington Royals in the Rookie League. Shields left to manage in the Nationals’ organization, which ended after below-average team performance triggered a change. He has managed for 28 seasons and is also well-established as a scout. This is his first foray into the Double-A level and it will be interesting to see how he works with the talent in Springdale this summer.
Alongside Shields is pitching coach Larry Carter and hitting coach Andy LaRoche. Carter is coming off of a two-year stint as the bullpen coach with the major league club, and returning to familiar territory. He has bounced around the Royals’ organization for decades, with most of his experience coming with the Double-A team. Credited with the development of the historically dominant bullpen pieces of 2014-2015, it seems as though Carter may be back to impart the wisdom of the new pitching philosophy to a very talented, young group.
Andy LaRoche Worked alongside Tommy Shields in the last year of the Burlington Royals’ existence in 2019. He also brings eight years of major-league experience to the dugout. Laroche is a bit of a local kid, hailing from Fort Scott, Kansas, and also spent a year playing for the Wichita Wingnuts before he hung up the cleats. He looks to bolster a hitting development program that has already led to the improvement of multiple prospects such as the 2021 turnaround of Nick Pratto and M.J Melendez.
2024 Projected Roster
C: Carter Jensen
1B: Dillan Shrum
2B: Javier Vaz
SS: Cam Devanney
3B: Cayden Wallace
CF: Diego Hernandez
RF: Gavin Cross
LF: River Town
Rotation:
Mason Barnett
Noah Cameron
Luinder Avila
Tyson Guerrero
Steven Zobac
Just about every player on this specific list deserves a paragraph or two. In the interest of time, I will be a little selective and give a breakdown of the few who look to make big strides this season. Or at the very least, they may not stick around in Springdale long enough for me to write about them again.
*Of note, I covered Dillan Shrum, Javier Vaz, and Cayden Wallace in detail earlier this off-season. Those three top my position players at this level, which is why they have already been covered. Check out those articles for an in-depth breakdown of why I’m so high on them.
Mason Barnet
Barnett was one of the most steady arms in the system last year, posting a 3.30 ERA between High-A and AA. The 23-year-old has already earned a non-roster invite to spring training and looks to keep climbing the ranks quickly. In 2023 he struck out 137 batters, held them to a .208 batting average, and only gave up five home runs in 114.2 innings (23 starts). The walk numbers weren’t jaw-dropping but sat at a respectable 3.92 BB/9, just about .6 higher than the MLB average last year. Baseball America had him as the organization’s minor league player of the year in 2023 and MLB Pipeline listed him 12th on the 2023 prospect rankings. Scouts love his fastball (94-98 mph) and slider (85-87 mph) but also mention a changeup that is decent at nixing lefties.
Diego Hernandez
Hernandez in 2023 ranked 15th on MLB Pipelines top 30 for the Royals, despite starting his season late due to a shoulder injury in Spring Training. He’s a speedy, defense-first outfielder who lacks a lot of pop with his bat. However, he has consistently been valued highly by the organization and writers alike. Some may call him a culture guy, some a fourth outfielder, but in Double-A he is a starting centerfielder and perhaps the surest bet to stick on a major league roster down the stretch. Perhaps it’s as a Terrance Gore/Jarrod Dyson type, but he has a strong chance at playing 40 to 60 games a season at the next level if he continues down this road.
He’s still young at 23, and as an international signing, it’s possible he still has some power hidden in there as his game develops. Hernandez will be a guy to watch this year as we gain a full understanding of what he is capable of.
Carter Jensen
I feel a bit of a special connection to Jensen. I circulated videos of him during my time as a scouting intern at Perfect Game and he was a local kid. He played for the Royals Scout Team but I didn’t expect him to end up with the major league club. I certainly didn’t expect him and his high school teammate Ben Kudrna to get bought out of their college obligations to LSU yet stay teammates.
His swing has been special since high school, with a major-league approach and an instinctive use of leverage to generate power. What really piques my interest is the plate discipline, or at least his ability to walk. Jensen strikes out way too much, but he also has flirted with 100 walk seasons in back-to-back years. His position battle with Luca Tresh will be something to watch if they both end up with the Naturals this season. Another storyline will be whether Jensen can hit for enough average to push the subject of another promotion. He has progressed levels in the org every year he’s been in it and may not start at the AA level like I’m predicting, but the scouts like him.
I’ve seen comparisons to Kyle Schwarber but, ideally, he could have better contact numbers. He’s young and raw so expect some patience with him and possibly a late call-up to the AA roster.
Luinder Avila
As someone who follows the minors pretty closely, this is a name I came into 2024 pretty unfamiliar with. I was even a little surprised to see his name at 29 on the 2023 top 30 list. He hasn’t put up jaw-dropping numbers at any of his stops but he looks like he may still have some maturing to do. There was a spike in velocity last season and his fastball has a great natural run on it. Avila has a good three-pitch mix with a curveball and a slider that came into the system with good bones, just needing a little extra maturation. I don’t know much but Avila seems like the kind of prospect that could break out at any moment. With a new pitching philosophy in the front office, you should keep tabs on this guy. He just may make some changes physically and technically to surprise us.
Gavin Cross
Gavin Cross came out of the gates swinging after being drafted with the Royals first pick of the 2022. He put together a .312/.437/.633 slash line between rookie ball and A ball in Columbia. However, he fell flat in his sophomore season of pro ball. Promoted to High-A to start the season, he seemed to lose the contact ability while searching for maturation in his swing. He still managed to threaten a .700 OPS via a healthy amount of walks and solid power when he could get the bat on the ball. As a former top-ten pick and the sixth ranked prospect in the 2023 Royals system rankings, this will be an eye-opening season.
He only clocked two games at AA in 2023 but there is a strong chance for him to continue climbing the ranks this season. At 23 years old, this will be a chance to show that he can bounce back from an underwhelming season and make changes to a swing that fully developed in college. Defensively it’ll be interesting to see if he can push for time in centerfield with Diego Hernandez sharing space in the outfield.
The Roleplayers
There is a lot of talent that can potentially find its way onto the Northwest Arkansas Roster in 2024. Some of it will start there, some of it will leave, and others will join the team later in the year. River Town not only has a great ballplayer name but has put together a strong resume to earn his spot on the 2024 roster. Luca Tresh looks to possibly lock down the starting catcher spot ahead of Carter Jensen pending on who lands where after Spring Training. Tyson Guerrero and Noah Cameron both have big strikeout potential and something to prove this season. I expect a lot of turnover for this squad in 2024. Between the level of talent in both High-A and Triple-A, there will be spots that need to be filled above and players to steal from below.
Of all of the players on this projected roster, I would expect a majority to start or end up with the Naturals this season. I also believe there may be a few of these names making a case for a September call-up in the 2024 season. Javier Vaz, Dilan Shrum, and Diego Hernandez all strike me as players who could fill positions that may have injury or depth concerns. Mason Barnett, Noah Cameron, and Tyson Guerrero all look like viable bullpen options if this team finds itself competitive when rosters expand.
We’ll check back in once rosters are finalized, and you can all point and laugh at me then. But until now feel free to use this for your own homework. I expect pretty fun things out of this lineup in 2024 and a lot of these players will be doing things to land them on your radar as well.
