Image credit: David Berding-USA TODAY Sports
Pitching is the currency of baseball. There’s perhaps nothing more important to a playoff-bound baseball team than depth in the starting rotation. So far this season, the Kansas City Royals have had just that. Aside from a recent injury to Michael Wacha and a brief absence from Brady Singer, the starting rotation has been relatively healthy. The handful of times it hasn’t been, the team has been able to lean on depth pieces such as Jonathan Bowlan and Daniel Lynch IV. That rotation depth goes even deeper, all the way back to Spring Training. Before the start of the season, it looked like the Royals would lean on Jordan Lyles as their fifth starter for 2024.
Instead, Lyles has been MIA for the entire season. The team’s depth led them to Alec Marsh, who has performed masterfully as far as a fifth starter is concerned. The Royals have built a solid amount of rotation depth in 2024. That comes after fielding one of the worst starting rotations in recent memory last season. That in itself is no small feat. As the calendar shifts into the summer months, that depth will become essential to the team’s long-term success. Should they make the playoffs, the strategies they incorporate now will shape how successful that October run may be.
In a rotation without a track record of innings, the Royals should use their rotation depth sooner rather than later
It’s a bit of a difficult position to take because Michael Wacha currently sits on the injured list. He suffered a foot fracture back in early June. Kris Bubic is still working back and is currently on a rehab assignment. He has to be activated by June 18 (he could be optioned to Omaha after being activated). The Royals are also slightly slumping in the standings of late, which makes it even more counterintuitive to think about purposely skipping innings for their most valuable pitchers. Despite that, it’s exactly the thing that the Royals should consider as the calendar shifts into July.
Starter Cole Ragans has never pitched more than 134.2 innings in a season. He pitched that many between the minor leagues and big leagues back in 2022. He pitched 94.0 innings last season, across 29 outings. Only 12 of those outings were starts (all with Kansas City). Ragans is already up to 79.0 IP and tied for the league lead with 14 starts under his belt. His next start will surpass his entire 2021 workload. From there, he’s only two or three starts away from surpassing last season’s workload as well.
For many young starters, it’s typical for them to eventually exceed their previous max innings as they continue to develop. Ragans is a bit different, however. He’s already undergone Tommy John Surgery twice and a third could dramatically change his career. Ragans had his first surgery in March 2018, followed by a second in May 2019. Jon Roegele’s Tommy John Surgery List lists just three pitchers who have undergone a third Tommy John Surgery. Among them are Jonny Venters (9/2014), Corey Black (4/2019), and Jason Isringhausen (9/2009).
Venters pitched a total of 42.1 innings after his third surgery. Black never pitched in the pro ball again. Isringhausen pieced together two more seasons as a reliever, although he was much older in his upper 30s by that time. The 2024 season has been a revelation for the Royals and their fans alike, but as good as the team has been, some things matter more than one season’s results. It’s a bit of a tightrope, for two reasons. Of course, teams should do anything they can to keep their best players healthy and playing. At the same time, teams can’t make “scared” decisions because injuries can happen no matter how much a player plays — especially when said player is throwing near triple digits deep into the sixth inning of starts.
In a more present-day example, the Mariners scratched Bryan Woo from his start yesterday. He will undergo an MRI this week. Woo pitched a career-high 131.2 innings in 2023 and has compiled 45.0 IP so far this season. Woo underwent Tommy John Surgery in April 2021.
As depth returns to the starting rotation, the Royals can take advantage and pace their starters where possible
Ragans is the center point here, but other arms such as Alec Marsh (one season north of 100 IP in his pro career) and Seth Lugo factor in as well. Lugo currently leads Major League Baseball with 91.1 IP this season. He’s ten innings away from tying the second most in his entire career, back in 2018. He pitched 146 innings last season. If Kansas City takes steps now to control the innings of their starters, they can reduce the impact and spread that over three months worth of baseball. Once Wacha returns and Bubic is ramped up, the team will have seven starters in the mix.
That doesn’t include Jonathan Bowlan and Daniel Lynch IV who have some big league starts under their belt this season. I don’t think there’s anyone out there who would bang the table for Daniel Lynch to take a start away from Cole Ragans or Seth Lugo. But what if one or two starts from Lynch in the August heat are the difference between a fresh Seth Lugo in October and one pitching on fumes? When Bubic and Wacha return, I’d love to see the Royals skip at least a start from both Lugo and Ragans in each month remaining this season.
The end result would only be 15-20 innings saved, but a lot more intangible savings in the form of recovery time and lessened stress on their arms. Ragans and Lugo may very well be fine to pitch a full workload, but I’m not so sure it’s worth the risk. One could argue that the team needs their best starters to reach a playoff run in the first place. If not for a potential playoff run at the end of this season, it’s worth considering to keep their rotation intact heading into 2025 and beyond.
