The Royals have made clear all offseason that the focus this off-season would be on pitching. The team hopes to acquire “one or two” starters to bolster their rotation, and veteran relievers to anchor a mostly young bullpen. On Tuesday, that talk turned into action. The Royals had been linked to a handful of second and third-tier starting pitchers over recent weeks, including Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty, and Seth Lugo. On Tuesday the team reportedly agreed to terms with Lugo.
The contract — a three-year, $45 million pact — will pay Lugo $15 million for each of the next three seasons. The third year comes with a player option. A former late-round pick by the Mets in 2011, Lugo built a major-league career as a converted starter. The Mets moved him to the bullpen full-time in 2018 and he never looked back. He posted a sub-3.00 ERA in both 2018 and 2019 and saw around a three mph improvement on his fastball. With a 2.43 career BB/9, Lugo has always had great command.
Can Lugo repeat his stellar 2023 showing?
Now entering his age-34 season, Lugo was seen in a different light on the free agent market. In 2023, the Padres moved Lugo back to the starting rotation where he continued to flourish. He finished his season 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA. His showing was good for 2.8 fWAR, making him one of the most intriguing options in this year’s free-agent class. Although the key statistics were impressive, there should still be some concern about a repeat performance from Lugo.
Aside from his groundball rate and walk rate, Lugo ranked below average in every other advanced pitching metric, according to Baseball Savant. Lugo simply didn’t create much swing-and-miss last season and when hitters made contact, they hit the ball very hard. His xFIP was still a respectable 3.76 but it’s worth mentioning that he’s still going to be 34 years old next season, coming off his first full season as a starter. His 146.1 IP last season was a career-high by a large margin.
Regardless, at the risk of “being damned if they do and damned if they don’t,” the Royals have placed their bets on a repeat performance from Lugo. The team certainly could’ve done a lot worse, but the signing will look a lot better if they add another mid-rotation starter with upside. Lugo as your fourth or fifth starter would be an incredible upgrade over last season.
The Royals continued reshaping their 2024 bullpen
Just minutes after news of the Lugo signing dropped, word broke that the Royals had also agreed to a contract with veteran reliever Chris Stratton. He was a first-round pick by the Giants in 2012 and debuted as a starter. The Giants traded him to Pittsburgh in 2019 and since then, he’s bounced around the league as a pretty respectable reliever.
His FIP has finished under 4.00 in each of the last four seasons. Last year for the Cardinals and Rangers, he pitched to a 3.92 ERA with 81 strikeouts and 25 walks. The strikeout numbers won’t blow anyone away, but Stratton throws strikes. He also provides a veteran presence in a relatively young bullpen. Last season, Royals relievers ranked 29th in ERA. Many of the team’s young relievers were thrust into situations that you’d like to see developing talent avoid. Anne Rogers of MLB.com echoed that sentiment in her newsletter on Tuesday.
the Royals want to add more relievers to help their young core. A veteran arm is preferred as Kansas City searches for stability in its bullpen. Strike-throwing is key.
If the Royals can take pressure off young arms like James McArthur, Carlos Hernández, Steven Cruz and others whom they see potential in, they believe those relievers will develop quicker and more efficiently than in last season. Night after night, young relievers were thrown into situations they had never experienced, and while some of that needs to happen for development, Kansas City wants to put pieces in the bullpen who can take the ball in those moments.
Based on that description, Stratton certainly fits the bill for Kansas City and marks the latest in a busy offseason for the Royals.