In the long awaited return to the deep dives, the subject of this dive is polarizing centerfielder Kyle Isbel. The defense first centerfielder has been the focus of some fans as a person to get out of the lineup. However, this article will defend Isbel and explain why his bat could turn around.
Starting off with the basic numbers, people will look at the .214/.259/.344 slash line and question why he is in the lineup. This writer gets the fact that his offense hasn’t been great, but center field isn’t a spot where the bat matters that much. Let’s look at the best offensive bats in center. Outside of the Aaron Judge’s, the only plus offensive centerfielders (based on wRC+) are Jarren Duran, JJ Bleday, Jazz Chisholm, and Jackson Merrill. All of whom have an OPS under .800 and have varying levels of defensive competency.
While Isbel has struggled with the bat, there are a couple of numbers that explain a couple of things. One big thing is his BABIP being at a paltry .231, which could mean he is getting a touch unlucky. Another is his groundball rate being above 50% with a dip in his line drive rate from last season. The last key one is his Solid% being 1.8%, which isn’t great.
Some of those numbers are luck based, but there are some things Isbel needs to change. The groundball rate needs to be lower and he needs to work on a couple other things for the solid% to rise. His average launch angle has taken a steep dip from last year as it stands at 9.4 degrees. Then we get to some conflicting numbers with barrel rate and hard hit rate.
This is where Isbel has made progress while taking a step back. His barrel rate is up a percentage from last season at 6%. That would mean his hard hit rate is better as well right? Nope, it actually has stayed in a similar vein as last season. Throw in his average exit velo being above league average and it only adds to the questions. So, what do these all mean?
With all of these numbers, it sounds like Isbel is a touch unlucky. While his BABIP is low, his expected numbers also show his unluckiness. As stated earlier, Isbel is hitting .214 while slugging .344. His XBA is .249 and his XSLG is .402. This means that Isbel has been unlucky and that he has the potential to put up a 90+ wRC+.
Although Isbel has been a proverbial “black hole” in the lineup, the data points more towards him being unlucky with some fixes needed to be made. Per Baseball savant, Isbel is ever so slightly below average in a lot of stats but stands out by not whiffing or striking out. Throw in a couple of numbers that have gotten better as the season as gone on and Isbel has a recipe to get to that 90+ wRC+ club.
With all of these hitting numbers Kyle Isbel could get rid of the polarization many Royals fans have with his play. While luck plays a part in this, he still needs to fix a lot about his approach. In the past week it seems that Isbel has started walking a lot more at 11.5%. He still had a BABIP of .222 so once that gets fixed he might be alright at the plate.
Kyle Isbel is probably one of the more polarizing players this writer has seen within this fanbase, and there are valid reasons for that. However, the value of centerfielders is on defense and Isbel is one of the better defenders in the league. Kyle Isbel is the best option, internally, to man center at Kauffman and fans should accept that. Even if the bat stagnates, his defense will always be the reason to keep him.
Photo Credit: (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
