It has been a bit, but welcome back to the Royals deep dive series. This week we have a repeat customer in Vinnie Pasquantino. In the first deep dive on Vinnie we discussed his slow start, but since the All-Star break the “Pasquatch” has looked great. Before we get into the dive, here is an excerpt from the first edition of his deep dive.
“Where it stands now, Vinnie hasn’t lived up to the hype that was thrust upon him in the offseason. He needs to fix a couple of things, and once he does, the Royals’ 1 through 4 hitters will become fully solidified and terrifying to face. If the Royals entertain the idea of competing in the AL Central, a Vinnie who is slugging and getting on-base will be needed.“
Starting with the basics, on the season Vinnie is slashing .264/.317/.449 with an OPS of .766. That is solid after his slower first half. Another key stat that Vinnie has is the fact he is still inching towards an 100 RBI season as he has 97, as of the morning of August 29. Also of note, he is still not striking out a ton at 12.7% and walking enough at 7.3%. Those numbers alone are good and it helps that Vinnie has stayed healthy for most of the year – he broke his thumb against the Astros on August 29 – but what has caused his spike in production?
The answer lies in his splits, mainly the RISP and leverage splits. The Royals have a couple batters that have a knack for clutch hitting and Vinnie is one of them. In high leverage plate appearances, Vinnie has an OPS of .937 and a wRC+ of 147. He is at his best in the clutch as he is more league average in medium and low leverage situations.
For his runners on-base split, he has an OPS of .912 and a wRC+ of 145. Of his 130 hits on the year, 75 of them have been with runners on. His RISP split is even better, as he sports an OPS of .957 and a wRC+ of 150. From what it sounds like he shows up to drive in runs, but when they aren’t on he isn’t as good. He is kind of like an RISP merchant, because he only sells when runners are on-base.
That doesn’t mean, however, that he slouches with bases empty. While he is below-to-league average depending on the situation he shows his power with the bases empty. With the bases empty, Vinnie has 11 HRs, 15 2Bs, and a triple. So, on occasion, he gives the Royals a discount by making himself a RISP. The splits are a key facet in Vinnie’s turnaround, but what do some other numbers say?
One of the sneakier developments for Vinnie lies in his pitch tracking and run values. Starting with his pitch tracking Vinnie has been able to hit all kinds of pitches. He hits fastballs at a .272 average, breaking balls at a .257 average, and off speed stuff at a .247. Vinnie also slugs all of these pitches at .400 or up with a .513 SLG on breaking balls.
Ironically, when looking at his run values his favorite pitches to hit are the 4-seam fastball, sweeper, and changeup, one for each category in pitch tracking. In that order, Vinnie has a run value of 5, 7, and 4 on those pitches. He especially crushes sweepers with a .400 average and an .850 slugging. The only pitch he struggles with is the slider as he is only hitting .204 and slugging it at .469. If his worst pitch still has a slugging above .400 that is a solid tradeoff. Let’s head back into the splits to compare his first and second halves.
To start, Vinnie had a ton of ups and downs in the first half going from a slow start to the year in March/April to having a good June then back down before the All-Star break. He finished the first half with an OPS of .731 and a 98 wRC+, which is not great for a number three hitter and first baseman. Since the break, however, he has had an OPS of .843 and a 130 wRC+. The biggest change between the two halves seems to be Vinnie’s aggressiveness as he has walked 4.8% since the break. Another key change is in his BABIP as it was .252 in the first half and in the second half it stands at .300.
This writer believes the key to Vinnie’s turnaround is the patented “turn and burn” approach. That means that Vinnie is doing what most lefty power bats do. To explain with stats, Vinnie’s splits on balls pulled show that he has an OPS of 1.044 with an wRC+ of 182. Throw in that he hits flyballs and line drives about 50% of the time and you see why turn and burn is the approach for him. That covers most of the numbers that describe Vinnie’s turnaround, but one more thing stands out.
Vinnie has turned into a solid defender at first base. So far, he has two outs above average and zero defensive runs save, both of which are career highs. The biggest change is with his UzR as it stands at 3.3, which is an increase of 3.2 from last season. According to Baseball savant, Vinnie lands in the top-ten for defensive first basemen based on OAA and success rate (rate at which a successful play is made).
Vinnie’s turnaround shouldn’t be understated in the Royals’ fight for the AL Central Crown. Without his bat, they probably wouldn’t be fighting for first and relying even more on Bobby Witt Jr. This year has shown that Vinnie is going to be a guy that will drive in runs at a minimum, and every team needs a guy like that.
Photo Credit: USA Today
