Photo Credit: LM Otero, AP
It has been a while, but the deep dives have returned. To summarize, this series provides an analytical perspective on player performances to show how or why they are succeeding or struggling. Typically, I select players through Twitter polls, so if you want to select the next deep dive, follow me (@Tdonova7) on Twitter/X.
With the introduction out of the way, the return of the series sees a struggling bat to start the 2024 season. That bat is Vinnie Pasquantino and with how the Royals offense has played so far if Vinnie gets going this is a scary offense to face. So what is the issue?
Starting with the simple statistics, Vinnie’s slash line is .138/.242/.138 for a paltry OPS of .380. It has been a rough start for the “Pasquatch.” He currently doesn’t have an extra-base hit yet and has been a net negative at the plate early on in the year. The basic numbers don’t show a lot of hope, but we dive a little deeper.
A couple of stats could summarize Vinnie’s struggles, and one of them is provided via his batted ball profile. Key issue number one for Vinnie is his groundball rate. Currently, Vinnie grounds the ball 59.1 GB%. That would be good if he was a pitcher, but he isn’t and it is way too high. To add to that, he is pulling the ball at the rate of a coin toss (50% pull rate). That is not a good combination for a guy who’s sprint speed is in the 10th percentile.
We have started with a lot of negatives, and we have a couple more to add. Another key issue to start the year for Vinnie is his barrel rate being 0%. Yeah, Vinnie has barreled the ball zero times this season leading to a 31.8% hard hit rate. Adding to that and returning to the batted ball profile he hasn’t hit a line drive yet. Another issue that ties into this is his average launch angle being nearly 10 degrees lower than last season – 2023 LA: 17.4, 2024 LA :7.6. All of this is just a bad combo for Vinnie, but not everything is doom and gloom for him.
Vinnie has started the year badly from most statistical standpoints, but his hitting process has stayed the same. That is good; his BB% of 13.8 and K% of 10.3 have helped him. Another thing he has done well is not whiff, with a 13.7% whiff rate. Away from the bat, Vinnie has done a solid job defensively at first base. He might never be a good defender, but he already has 1 DRS to start the year.
Now, we will discuss whether he has been unlucky or not. In short, it isn’t easy to say. If we look at his BABIP – batting average on balls in play, aka luck- it stands at a .160. That would signify some unlucky balls hitting players directly, but then we look at the expected numbers. Vinnie’s xBA of .195 and xSLG of .234 show that he isn’t as unlucky as perceived. There is a bit of unluckiness with the bat, but not enough to use it as an excuse.
Where it stands now, Vinnie hasn’t lived up to the hype that was thrust upon him in the offseason. He needs to fix a couple of things, and once he does, the Royals’ 1 through 4 hitters will become fully solidified and terrifying to face. If the Royals entertain the idea of competing in the AL Central, a Vinnie who is slugging and getting on-base will be needed.
