Royals @ Giants Series Preview: Setting Fire to SF Giants

After wrapping up a series against their long-time rival, the Royals hit the road to meet their newer age World Series rival, the San Francisco Giants.

At present, the Giants are 28-19, tied for second place in the hyper-competitive NL West division. They recently flipped a 1-4 stretch into a 4-1 burst after sweeping the wayward Athletics. Like many teams, they do well to rep their home stadium, currently boasting a 16-7 record at Oracle Park.

San Francisco Giants, On Offense

• The Giants have a team-wide 98 wRC+ with a slash line of .237 / .312 / .389 but have scored the 8th most runs, likely thanks to six hitters with a wRC+ above 115 (everyone else is below 90).
• As usual, San Francisco doesn’t see a lot of hitters, but the core of their lineup of Wilmer Flores, Jung Hoo Lee, Heliot Ramos and Matt Chapman combine for 34 of the team’s 50 home runs. The Royals have 30 home runs as a team, for the record.
• Wilmer Flores is the current MLB leader in RBIs with 42.
• Conversely, Patrick Bailey has the third lowest wRC+ among hitters with 130+ plate appearances, with Michael Massey being one of the only two beneath him. Bailey still generates positive value by being one of the best defensive catchers in the game.
• The Giants are 16th in defensive runs saved but 28th in outs above average with Bailey, Chapman and Lee grading as the only positive defenders on the team thus far. The team also grades as having the second-worst defensive range, only above the Athletics.
• The Giants don’t steal a lot of bases, having only 25 steals on the year for the 24th most. They’ve also been caught stealing 11 times, the 12th most in baseball.

San Francisco Giants, In Relief

• The Giants have the best bullpen ERA in baseball at 2.51, and the highest left on base percentage at 77.8%.
• Similar to the Royals’ pen, Giants relievers excel at keeping the ball on the ground, limiting walks, and isn’t asked to pitch too often.
• Giants relievers also have the second-lowest BABIP at .237 (the median is around .280) and, as you might expect, have allowed the fewest hits of any bullpen.
• San Francisco has a bit of a dual closer unit rather than a single dominant closer, as Ryan Walker and Camilo Doval have both accrued more than a couple saves. Walker has a high ERA but a sub-3 FIP thanks to being one of the best in baseball at limiting hard contact with his sinker and slider. Doval, on the other hand, blitzes hitters with triple-digit cutters.
• Erik Miller and Randy Rodriguez also supply the bullpen with immense upper-90s velocity.
• Jordan Hicks was demoted from starter to bullpen over the weekend with Hayden Birdsong taking his place. Hicks was a solid, flamethrowing reliever who looked to be a closer on the rise, but aspired to be a starter with the Giants. Evidently, it hasn’t gone well, but he had a 3.29 ERA in his last full year of relief with a 28% strikeout rate.
• The picture of Tyler Rogers on his Savant page looks very scary.

Game Times and Pitching Matchups

Unfortunately, this is a west coast series, so the first two games will be hard to watch for many Royals fans.

Monday, May 19 @ 8:45 PM – LHP Kris Bubic (4-2, 1.66 ERA, 54.1 IP) v LHP Robbie Ray (6-0, 3.04 ERA, 50.1 IP)

• Kris Bubic is having a marvelous breakout season, still boasting some of the best numbers in baseball across the board. At the risk of jinxing this start, Bubic has not allowed a single run to teams not from Houston since facing the Yankees on April 16. He has more scoreless starts (5) than starts with any earned runs (4) so far.
• Robbie Ray is one of the most random and forgettable Cy Young winners of the past decade, having won it for the Blue Jays in 2021, but his first full season since Tommy John is a good attempt at correcting that. Ray is currently leading the National League in walks but is getting away with it by missing bats altogether; along with a healthy 28% called strike + whiff percentage, opponents are only hitting .202 against him. He’s a traditional 4-seam heavy starter, throwing the fastball more than 50% of the time, with a common slider and the occasional changeup and curveball to round out the repertoire.

Tuesday, May 20 @ 8:45 PM – RHP Michael Lorenzen (3-4, 3.76 ERA, 52.2 IP) v RHP Hayden Birdsong (1-0, 2.31 ERA, 23.1 IP)

• Quietly, Michael Lorenzen has exceeded expectations as the Royals’ fifth starter by nurturing a career-low walk-rate as a starter. Lorenzen’s last outing was especially exciting as he smoothly navigated a quality Astros lineup… until he was left in an inning too long, perhaps.
• Birdsong is a 23-year-old pitcher who filled San Francisco’s rotation in the back half of 2024 to the tune of a 4.75 ERA. This year, he’s been solid in relief but is getting a second chance at starting with Jordan Hicks failing out of the rotation. His last appearance was on May 14th against the D-backs where he threw 65 pitches, so don’t expect an excessively short leash. He has a decently fast 4-seamer in the mid-upper 90’s with strong vertical break, but opponents are slugging .583 against this pitch. His upper 80’s slider does much better as a putaway pitch and his changeup has been borderline unhittable for lefties. He also has a curveball but seldom throws it.

Wednesday, May 21 @ 2:45 PM – TBA v RHP Logan Webb (5-3, 2.42 ERA, 63.1 IP)

• The Royals have not announced a starter to take Ragans’ spot yet. FanGraphs’ Roster Resource is implying a Luinder Avila call-up, but Anne Rogers at mlb.com confirms the former. An Avila call-up is in the cards, but I think it’s more likely the Royals stick to a bullpen game with Daniel Lynch and Jonathan Bowlan taking most of the load, unless the team fears one of Lugo or Ragans will be out longer than expected.
• Meanwhile, the Giants are throwing out one of the best pitchers in baseball. Logan Webb is a true ace, placing 11th, 2nd and 6th in the Cy Young voting for the past three years respectively; he’s also led the NL in innings pitched each of the last two years (he’s currently second in 2025). This might be his best season yet, as his ERA is far lower than usual and he has a league-leading FIP to back it up. Do not expect a Royal to hit a home run on Wednesday, as Webb has allowed just two on the year and Oracle Park is infamously difficult to hit out of. Webb dominates the zone a headache-inducing sinker/sweeper combo, whose deliveries and release points are identical until they break left (sweeper) or right (sinker), disallowing any time to discern the two before it’s too late. Hitters also whiff at his changeup 35% of the time. Fun!

Series Expectations and Predictions

Winning road series against good teams is always a big order, and the Giants aren’t making it easy with their starters. That said, I don’t hate the matchups? I like Bubic in this park and feel generally confident with the rest of the staff being able to keep it together as they always have. Tuesday’s game feels particularly winnable unless Lorenzen suddenly melts down or Birdsong twirls a gem, which I suppose is equally likely given this offense.

It would be really great to see the Royals take advantage of Oracle’s weird, spacious dimensions. 6 extra base hits on the series, including one triple would be fun. I’m going to punch in a 1-2 series loss for the Royals, which might sound disappointing, but if the games can be close then it wouldn’t be a huge deal to drop a series to a good team. Just don’t get swept………….

This article is named after The Dillinger Escape Plan song ‘Setting Fire to Sleeping Giants.’

Image credit: D. Ross Cameron (USA TODAY Sports)