Image credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been 25 days since the Kansas City Royals acquired Jonathan India in a trade with the Cincinnati Reds. Make it 42 days since the team signed starter Michael Wacha to a three-year extension. Since the India move, baseball’s Winter Meetings have come and gone, and with them what seems like at least a dozen rumors and speculated moves that the front office should make. Alec Bohm, Cody Bellinger, Teoscar Hernandez — whether it’s been the free agent discussion or the trade rumor mill, it seems like the Royals fans are ready for just about anything.

With so long since any sort of notable Royals news, the atmosphere has grown more weary among fans of the team. There have been whispers of discussions with the Mets. The Royals did sign third baseman Jordan Groshans to a minor league deal and have reportedly received trade interest in LHP Angel Zerpa. Outside of that, there isn’t much of anything happening for the Royals. At least, nothing happening that’s out in the open. Have no doubts, the front office and General Manager J.J. Picollo are busy day in and day out working to find the best options to improve the team’s roster this upcoming season. Still, is the lack of movement something that should be concerning in Kansas City?

The Royals were ahead of the market, but now it’s caught up to them

Much like last offseason, it shouldn’t be lost on anyone how ahead of the market the Royals front office found themselves. They moved quickly last winter, signing starters Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo fairly early on. By the middle of last offseason, those contracts started to look like bargains compared to other signings. The same can be said for the Wacha extension this winter. Nathan Eovaldi signed for three years, $75 million. Eovaldi is a year older and enters 2025 off a worse showing than the Royals got from Wacha in 2024. Despite that, Wacha signed for just three years, $51 million. A fourth-year team option could make the contract worth more, but Wacha’s deal looks below the market now just short of two months later.

Then came the Jonathan India trade. The Royals sent RHP Brady Singer to the Reds for India and outfielder Joey Wiemer. At the time, the trade was fairly well received but there were still questions about whether Kansas City could’ve gotten more. Now, a month later the answer is a resounding no. The trade market is insane right now. The Phillies, looking to trade third baseman Alec Bohm, have reportedly asked for George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Mason Miller in different trade scenarios. Not all three, of course, but just one of the three is an exorbitant cost for what Bohm brings.

Kyle Tucker just went to Chicago and cost a hefty haul of prospects and MLB talent. Even reliever Devin Williams netted the Brewers starter Nestor Cortes and a promising infield prospect in Caleb Durbin. Garrett Crochet cost nearly an entire farm system all on his own (a better farm system than these Royals have, mind you). In today’s trade market, it isn’t difficult to see how the Reds could’ve plausibly gotten more for India on the open trade market. Although Brady Singer offers plenty of value, he’s a risky option and it’s difficult to trust his track record as anything more than a true fourth starter.

Early in the offseason, the Royals were again ahead of both the free agent and trade markets just like a year ago. Now, we’ve seen the market catch up. As a result, the Royals are doing exactly what any smart front office should be.

With a raised market, waiting for the dominoes to fall is the right move for the Royals

With the market now raised, it makes all the sense in the world for the Royals to wait for some chips to fall. Soto inflated the market (as expected), leaving the suitors who missed out to scramble for backup options. That vacuum now inflates the market for players like Cody Bellinger, free agent Alex Bregman, and the already-traded Kyle Tucker. The Yankees and Blue Jays were willing to shell out half a million dollars or more for Soto, and won’t hesitate to pull out the stops to land what’s left in the upper tier of free agents and trade targets.

That leaves the Royals in a difficult place. The farm system isn’t in a place where it makes sense to subtract any extremely valuable pieces. Jac Caglianone and Blake Mitchell are the only real elite prospect values to be found, and both figure to factor into the team’s long-term plans. In free agency, the payroll is never going to compete with the Yankees. Not until baseball decides to level the financial playing field, anyway. For all of those reasons, it makes a ton of sense for Picollo and Co. to let value come back around. Once the chaos of Tucker, Bellinger, Bregman, and more has subsided, the Royals can again enter the market and clean up with what’s left.

A star would be nice, but it isn’t what the team needs

We have Superstar at home. No, really. We do. Bobby Witt Jr. gives the Royals the highly elusive Superstar talent. Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo give them the ace factor in the starting rotation. Lucas Erceg is the closer with an outstanding upside. This team already has all of the hard things checked off their list. It would be nice to sign Alex Bregman. Anyone who tells you otherwise doesn’t know who Bregman is as a player. It’s a luxury, though, for a team that isn’t exactly afforded luxury dollars from their TV revenue and revenue sharing put together.

Instead, the Royals need to add in the margins. A swing starter, another reliever, and a versatile hitter to lengthen the lineup are the three needs remaining this winter. Bounce-back candidates like Patrick Sandoval and Jose Leclerc make plenty of sense. They aren’t signing until the chaos subsides, however, in hopes they can maximize their next contract. Adam Frazier signed in late January last offseason, and the Royals will likely take the full month ahead to round out the roster.

By playing the market as it comes, the Royals are maintaining the short-term financial flexibility that they have. Rushing into another Ian Kennedy contract is going to handcuff the team in the coming years — not help them. With a potential star in Jac Caglianone not far off and some post-hype prospects like MJ Melendez and Maikel Garcia still “TBD,” that financial flexibility is more valuable than it may seem. A year from now, the Royals’ needs could be wildly different. By the end of 2023, they needed an entire starting rotation. Now, they’re trading from rotation depth. Whatever moves the Royals do eventually make, don’t expect any blockbuster moves. Instead, look for fundamentally sound moves that allow the team’s current potential to still bloom alongside whatever newcomers join the roster before Opening Day.