Depending on how you look at it, it’s been either an incredible week for the Kansas City Royals or a horrendous one. On one hand, the team has dropped seven straight games and now sits 5.5 games behind the first-place Cleveland Guardians. On the flip side, the Royals have shrunk their magic number amid that season-long losing streak. The Red Sox have lost four straight, as have the Seattle Mariners. Despite the Royals’ struggles, the team maintains a lead in the Wild Card race and would hold a playoff spot if the season ended today.
No matter how the season wraps up, this roster is ahead of schedule. Few expected Kansas City to compete in 2024. Even fewer expected them to have any chance at winning the division on September 1st. With the Major League club so far ahead of schedule, there’s been less emphasis on the minor league system this season. Don’t let that lesser focus fool you, however. The system is on the rise. Not only has the system improved with the addition of Jac Caglianone, and the continued break out of Blake Mitchell. The puzzle is finally starting to come together and show when these prospects may be ready to supplement the Major League roster in a big way.
With strong showings this season, the picture of the farm system becomes clearer
A year ago, the Kansas City farm system ranked among the worst in baseball according to some. The team’s first-round selection of Blake Mitchell was met with scrutiny for a 106-loss team that looked to have little or no help from the minor leagues on the immediate horizon. Now, the timeline for much of the farm system looks to have honed in on a similar timeline: 2026. 2024 sixth-overall pick, Jac Caglianone, took a short time to get going in High-A Quad Cities. He’s done so of late, however, with a .281/.313/.484 slash line over his last 15 games.
Blake Mitchell made his way to High-A for the first time with a promotion earlier this week. Also in Quad Cities, outfielders Spencer Nivens and Carson Roccaforte came alive in August. Nivens especially had perhaps the best month in all of affiliated baseball. He slashed .352/.427/.806 with a .454 ISO, thanks in part to 13 home runs. Roccaforte would’ve seen more attention if not for Nivens, slashing .280/.357/.550 in his own right. That’s an excellent offensive contribution alongside his usual elite defense in center field. Suddenly, Kansas City has a trove of important prospects throughout the High-A lineup.
Elsewhere, Carter Jensen and Steven Zobac have taken their talents to Double-A in 2024. Ben Kudrna did so as well, representing the team in the 2024 Futures Game in Arlington, Texas. Jensen has a .212 ISO in 31 games with the Naturals as a 20-year-old. Zobac, a converted outfielder in his final year at Cal, has been among the system’s very best arms this season. In nine appearances with Northwest Arkansas, Zobac has a 2.76 FIP and a 32.8% strikeout rate. Gavin Cross and Javier Vaz are likely a year ahead of many of these other talents but have both been great in 2024 for the Naturals as well.
Then, there’s the young arms in Columbia. The organization has taken it slowly with Hiro Wyatt and Blake Wolters this season, but both have looked sound at one point or another this season. Wyatt has looked especially good, owning a 29.8% strikeout rate so far in his Low-A debut with a 2.67 FIP.
Welcome to Destination 2026: The potential arrival of numerous Royals key prospects
With so many standout showings this season, it begs the question: when will they be ready to make their big league debut? Prospects are just that, and the only real value is once they’re on the big league roster providing at-bats or innings. For many of the key prospects above, the timeline seems to point to 2026. Outfielder Gavin Cross and Javier Vaz may be a year earlier and could reach the big leagues as early as next season. Others, such as Blake Wolters and Hiro Wyatt, could be a year later with a 2027 debut most likely. However, 2026 should be seen as more or less the arrival of the Royals’ next young core.
Jac Caglianone will likely make his way to Double-A in 2025 with a chance to debut by the end of the season if he can dominate the Texas League. More likely, he’ll be positioned to reach the big leagues early in 2026. The same goes for Blake Mitchell, even if he only just made his way to High-A. Mitchell has taken impressive strides developmentally this season and I don’t think that success will slow at the next level. Already in just his first game with the River Bandits, he looked up to the part, hitting a single and narrowly missing a home run.
I expect Mitchell could push for a big league roster spot by midseason 2026. That’s the timeline for most of the prospects above. Jensen, Nivens, Roccaforte, Kudrna, Zobac, Vaz, and more should be ready to help the Major League roster that season. By 2026, the Royals only have three current payroll obligations. Those include Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, and Seth Lugo. Vinnie Pasquantino likely factors in as well, sharing the first base load with Jac Caglianone. Both players likely play every day, but Caglianone offers a higher ceiling. As for Perez, 2026 currently stands as the final year of his four-year contract. There’s a $2 million club buyout and by that point, an Alex Gordon-esque exit wouldn’t be all that surprising.
Others, such as Maikel Garcia, MJ Melendez, Brady Singer, and Kyle Isbel may be shuffled out for some of the looming talent. Isbel hits arbitration this winter, making his age-30 season in 2027 his final year of arbitration before potential free agency. Then, there’s Singer. He’s had an up-and-down career with more ups than downs of late. 2026 will be Singer’s final year of arbitration and it’s unclear whether the team will end up extending him at some point. If I had to guess currently, I’d guess no. More or less, the Royals have a roster that could stand to be upgraded further with higher-ceiling talent by the time 2026 rolls around.
It’ll take more development, and any of the prospects above could have drastically different outlooks by the time midseason 2025 rolls around. However, the outlook currently looks very good for the Royals in 2026. There are still some long-term questions to iron out. Among them, who will play third base? Is Maikel Garcia truly the answer there? Trevor Werner has been good at times this season, but more or less he looks like a lower-tier prospect than you’d like to see leading your third base tree. Also among them is the question of so many left-handed hitting prospects.
Mitchell, Caglianone, Jensen, Vaz, Nivens, and Roccaforte are all left-handed bats. So are MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Gavin Cross. The Royals have a ton of left-handed firepower in the farm system and will eventually need to find right-handed balance. That question is clearly one for another day. For now, the Royals have their sights set on an October playoff berth with 2026 and beyond offering even loftier aspirations.
