The Royals have an off day today, fresh off a sweep at the hands of the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers now sit just a half-game out of the third wild card spot. The Royals hold a 1.5 game lead on Minnesota for the second Wild Card and trail Baltimore for the first wild card spot. In the division, Cleveland holds a six-game lead on Kansas City and looks to have the central locked down. Looking at the playoff odds on FanGraphs, the Royals currently hold an 89.0% chance of making the postseason. They’re given a 0.4% chance to win the division and a 0.2% chance to claim a bye in the first round. A playoff bye is awarded to the top two seeds from each league. With nine games to go, what does each playoff scenario look like for Kansas City?
Playoff Scenarios for the Kansas City Royals entering the season’s final stretch
Royals win the American League Central
This is the most unlikely scenario at this point of the season. Needing to make up six games, the Royals have just nine games to play. To win the division, the Royals would need a serious collapse from Cleveland. The Royals would need to get hot in the win column as well. The Guardians’ final nine games include one against Minnesota and three in St. Louis. They follow that series against the Cardinals with two versus the Reds and then wrap up the season with a three-game set against Houston. If the Guardians go 3-6 over the final stretch of games, they’ll finish their season 91-71. In that scenario, the Royals would have to go a perfect 9-0 to finish the season to tie Cleveland. The Royals won the season series and hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland.
It’s the most unlikely scenario, simply because it requires the Royals to get extremely hot and for Cleveland to collapse in extreme fashion. With four wins (or just one more Royals loss), the Guardians will have clinched the American League Central.
Royals miss the postseason entirely
Believe it or not, I don’t believe this scenario is all that likely either. Still, it’s more likely than the team’s chances of winning the Central Division. To miss the playoffs, the Royals would need to collapse even more than we’ve seen over their recent four-game losing streak. Kansas City owns a two-game lead on the Tigers entering Thursday. Each team has nine games to play, meaning there’s certainly a possibility that the Tigers and Twins sneak in, leaving the Royals out of the postseason bracket. If the Royals finish their season 5-4, the Tigers would need to go 6-3 to finish 87-75. The Royals hold the season tie-breaker against Detroit. For that reason, the Tigers will need to finish the season with more wins than Kansas City outright — a tie won’t benefit them.
The Royals can erase the Tigers’ chances of passing them (Detroit could still surpass Minnesota for the third Wild Card) by winning seven of their next nine. If the Royals go 7-2 to wrap up the season, there’s no mathematical chance Detroit can sneak into the postseason ahead of Kansas City. For each win the Royals have over their next nine games, the Tigers need three. If the Royals go 2-7, Detroit can finish 5-4 and move ahead of the Royals, and so on. Detroit matters, of course, but the Twins factor into this scenario as well.
For the Royals to miss the postseason, the Twins would have to also surpass Kansas City. They have an easier path to do so, but the Royals currently hold a 1.5-game lead over Minnesota. The Twins have ten games remaining entering Thursday. The Twins need to win at least two more games than the Royals over Kansas City’s final nine games. If the Royals finish 4-5, the Twins would need to finish at least 6-4 to tie the Royals. Minnesota holds the season tie-breaker. In this scenario that sees the Royals miss the postseason altogether, the Twins must win at least two more games than the Royals and the Tigers must win at least three more games than the Royals over the team’s final nine games of 2024.
Royals clinch the postseason as the third Wild Card
The Royals could make the postseason as the third wild card. For this to happen, one of the previous two scenarios would need to happen. If the Twins win two more games than the Royals over the season’s final stretch, but the Tigers don’t win at least three more games than Kansas City, then the Twins would earn the second Wild Card, moving the Royals down to the third Wild Card. On the flip side, if the Tigers continue their hot stretch and win at least three more games than the Royals, but Minnesota fails to win at least two more games than Kansas City, the Tigers would move into the second wild card spot, slotting the Royals into that third slot.
Royals clinch the postseason as the second Wild Card
What I view as the most likely scenario to end the season is this one. If both the Twins fail to win at least two more games than the Royals and the Tigers fail to win at least three more than Kansas City, the Royals would hold firm in the second wild card slot. The Twins and Tigers would be battling for the third wild card and final playoff spot, with a trip to Houston on the way. This scenario would send the Royals to Baltimore for a Wild Card series against the Orioles.
Royals clinch the postseason as the top Wild Card
For the Royals to clinch playoff baseball at Kauffman Stadium this season, they’d need to surpass the Orioles while holding off Detroit and Minnesota. The scenario above where the Royals clinch the second Wild Card would need to come to fruition. In addition, the Royals would need to make up a 3.5-game difference that stands between them and the Orioles. Beyond that difference, the Orioles also hold the season tie-breaker over Kansas City. The Royals would need to finish the season’s final stretch with at least three more wins than the Orioles over the same stretch. For example, if the Royals finish their final nine games 5-4 to finish 87-75, they’d need the Orioles to finish 2-8 or worse in order to pass them in the Wild Card race.
Making things further complicated, the Orioles final ten games entering Thursday include three games against Detroit and three games against Minnesota. The Orioles losing over their ten game stretch would work in the Royals favor for the top wild card spot, but would work against the Royals greatly in keeping their pace ahead of both Detroit and Minnesota.
One thing is certain for the Royals as we enter the season’s final nine games: win and you’re in. All the Royals need to do to punch their postseason ticket is to win games.