The last full update to the Farm to Fountains top prospect list for the Kansas City Royals was back in October. It took some time, plugging a hundred or so prospects into Excel, and assigning scouting grades for each tool, along with an age qualifier and a positional premium qualifier. That process took some time, but eventually, I compiled it into a neat top-prospect list. Since then, work has also started toward creating individual prospect profiles for each of the Top 70 prospects in the Royals’ farm system
That work will continue, but in the meantime, it’s time to share a tweaked and renewed list, just in time for Spring Training. Last week I was completing a prospect profile for outfielder Spencer Nivens. While creating the update, I updated my tool grades for Nivens and he jumped more than 30 spots in my rankings. Such a large change for one player made it clear that it was time to do a more thorough update of the entire system. With that, here we are! One large update I’ve applied this time around is a risk qualifier. I’ve added that qualifier to the Overall Value formula. Why?
A new addition to the Overall Value formula for evaluating Royals prospects
To me, prospect rankings are very complex and each person’s list could mean something else. A list could rank prospects based on how likely they are to be superstars. Another could rank them based on how likely they are to become an impact player in the big leagues. Using my Value formula, the goal is to combine all of those into a cleaner number. Adding a risk indicator into that formula has helped to round that out some. Prior, players could see boosted value based on youth — a 20-year-old prospect often has a higher ceiling than a 25-year-old — but the inherent risk wasn’t accounted for.
This time around, it’s accounted for and it’s only made the system that much better. If the value number was pretty close but there was a large difference in risk, that should matter. For example, last fall’s update had Ben Kudrna ranked fifth with a 30.3 Overall Value. Tyler Gentry was sixth, with a 30.0. The overall value was marginal, but the risk factor between each prospect was vast. Kudrna is still very young with a large range of potential outcomes. Gentry is a polished and established minor league veteran on the doorstep of the big leagues. That difference needed to be accounted for. Therefore, you’ll see some movement on the latest update. With that context in place, here’s a look at the biggest movers in the latest update.
Biggest risers in the latest Royals prospects update
RHP David Sandlin
Prev: 15 Now: 6
Had a mid-season injury not taken Sandlin’s pro debut away from us prematurely, he may have already been in the top ten. He only pitched two innings in the complex league after being drafted in 2022 but burst onto the scene in 2023. Sandlin obliterated Low-A hitters with a 12.1 SO/9 and 6.08 SO/BB. The hitters facing him simply had no chance. Then, this offseason we’ve seen Sandlin hitting triple-digits with the heater. If he can maintain that as a starter, the ceiling for Sandlin is even higher than we all expected. It’s important to remember here that his first year as a starting pitcher was 2022 for the Sooners. There isn’t a ton of experience to speak of yet Sandlin is dominant. The sky is the limit here.
RHP Will Klein
Prev: 37 Now: 18
Klein gets a bump here mainly due to the risk factor. There wasn’t a large gap in overall value between Klein at 37 at Trevor Werner at 18. However, a flamethrowing reliever with triple-digit stuff is going to be pretty safe in the long run. That’s good news for Will Klein. Sure, relievers are volatile and he’s been that throughout his minor league career thus far. Even still, there’s a reason he represented the Royals in last year’s Futures Game. He’s on the 40-man roster and our projections indicate he could be one of the best bullpen arms in the mix by the end of 2024.
INF Derlin Figueroa
Prev: 59 Now: 29
It’s important to be cautious with international prospects. That can be especially true for international prospects acquired via trade. The Royals acquired Devin Mann in the Ryan Yarbrough trade last summer with the Dodgers, and Figueroa was part of that trade. The Royals acquired Figueroa in the Ryan Yarbrough trade last summer with the Dodgers, and Devin Mann was part of that trade. It’s time to adjust our perspective some on Figueroa. He’s drawn rave reviews from Arizona ever since joining the organization and 2024 could be the year he takes the leap from fringe prospect and joins the real conversation. The ability at the plate is very real.
LHP Anthony Veneziano
Prev: 49 Now: 33
Anthony Veneziano has been reworking his arsenal some this offseason. After making his MLB debut in 2023, the Royals then went out this offseason and acquired a handful of arms to pitch ahead of Veneziano on the depth chart. That competition could be exactly what Veneziano needs to continue taking steps forward in his development. He’s an older prospect and still seems like a reliever long-term in my eyes. However, reworking his pitch mix could be a good sign of things to come. If Veneziano can create more swing-and-miss, his ceiling could be back on the rise.
OF River Town
Prev: 64 Now: 46
Town reached Double-A last season for the first time as a 23-year-old. He only played in four games there, but before that spent the entire season at High-A. For the River Bandits, he slashed .269/.375/.365. From 2022 to 2023, Town raised his walk rate by more than four percent and maintained the strikeouts at a solid 15% mark. At the same time, Town saw his line drive rate shoot up from 15.1% in 2022 to 22.3% in 2023. He’s still pulling the ball an awful lot and the ceiling seems somewhat limited due to the power ability. However, there’s a lot to like and the development has been apparent at the plate for Town.
Players falling in the latest Royals prospects update
RHP Emmanuel Reyes
Prev: 16 New: 27
Much like Klein, the largest impact here for Reyes was the risk factor. The command is exceptional, and the spin ability is impressive for such a young prospect. With that said, Reyes is still just 19 years old and there’s a lot that needs to happen for him to become what I believe he can be. His fastball is spun well and has great horizontal life. However, he sat 88-90 with the heater by the end of last season. Reyes needs conditioning to last through starts and to build that velocity. Without it, he saw his strikeout rate drop from 55.6% in the 2022 Dominican Summer League to just 18.4% in Columbia last season.
RHP Henry Williams
Prev: 26 Now: 36
Injuries have slowed Williams, and he’s poised to enter 2024 as a 22-year-old making his first attempt at High-A. Last year, Williams showed promise at times but nothing really blows you away. His stuff can be good at times, but he commands it inconsistently. The result is a bit too many walks alongside a bit too few strikeouts. Opponents hit just .207 against him after the trade from San Diego to Kansas City, but the overall mix of results isn’t all that conducive to success in the upper minors. Williams walks too many guys and doesn’t strike many out. He needs to fix at least one of those things in 2024 to get back on track as a true pitching prospect.
OF Erick Torres
Prev: 25 Now: 41
Torres has a fantastic 2023 season in the Complex League as just an 18-year-old. He slashed .319/.392/.428 with a .109 ISO. Unfortunately, his small frame and swing mechanics don’t appear to indicate much power development is on the way. Without it, Torres is a future fourth outfielder with a sound approach, great speed, and an average hit tool. Now, that could all be valuable if Torres can develop into a plus defender in center, but leveraging that much of his future value on defensive value makes him rather limited as a prospect. Torres could develop greatly at the plate in 2024 and find himself back on the rise. Or, he could very easily become a lot like the next prospect on this list.
OF John Rave
Prev: 30 Now: 44
Rave, like Torres, is a sound defender in center field with very good speed. A mid-season promotion to Omaha saw Rave turn over a new leaf at the plate. He was hitting the ball hard, living off gap power and the results were impressive. Then, the longer Rave spent in Omaha, the more that approach deteriorated. Over Rave’s first two months with the Storm Chasers, he posted a .176 ISO, 14.3% walk rate, and 22.4% strikeout rate. Then, over the rest of the season, his ISO was just .109. He walked 9.7% and struck out 32.9%. Without consistency in approach, Rave is a depth outfielder who might get a chance if injuries pile up.
LHP Hunter Patteson
Prev: 47 Now: 65
Patteson was one of the more anticipated debuts of the 2023 season for me. He was working back from Tommy John Surgery, and once he debuted in Arizona the results were impressive. Over seven appearances in Surprise, Patteson posted a 30.9% K% and 4.4% BB%. The command continued with him into Low-A, although his strikeouts tapered off some. Still, Patteson garnered a healthy amount of swing-and-miss in the small sample we saw, confirming what made him a fifth-round pick in 2022. Unfortunately, an undisclosed injury sidelined Patteson after his very first Low-A start. That was in July and he didn’t pitch again the rest of the year. That lack of news after the injury isn’t a great sign, and even if he doesn’t miss time in 2024, Patteson will be 24 in April with less than ten professional innings at Low-A.
Newcomers to the latest Top 70 prospects
LHP Asa Lacy – #67
Fine, I put Asa Lacy on the list. I still don’t like it much, because so much of this ranking is based on what we saw from Lacy however many months ago he pitched for the Naturals. If it’s the same, his stuff was electric but the command was severely lacking. He’s been working this offseason and looks like he’s going to at least give things a go to start the season.
RHP Marwys Jorge – #47
Jorge was an international signing by the Royals in 2023. Kansas City signed him for $450,000 as their top prospect in that year’s class. He was likened some to Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara before signing. Last year, I saw some glimpses of Yordano Ventura, albeit without the same velocity. Still, Jorge is a young arm with plenty of potential. He made nine starts in the DSL last summer and could end up in Arizona this season.
SS Josi Novas – #19
Novas is debuting very high on the list, finding himself in the top 20 already. Being an 18-year-old, 6-4 shortstop can do that. Novas has a massive frame for such a young infielder and long term probably moves to third base. He’ll turn 19 this month and could get a chance to start the year in Columbia. He appeared in 35 games last season in the Complex League, slashing .324/.437/.450. The power potential is there, and although there’s ample swing-and-miss, the approach is healthy as well.
Players leaving the Top 70 Royals prospects in this latest update
RHP Ben Hernandez
Prev: 69 Now: 74
Hernandez simply hasn’t lived up to his early draft investment. For a time, he was a high-ceiling, raw arm. Now, he will turn 23 in July and has yet to make his way past Low-A. Last season was his third attempt at Low-A, and he put together 42.0 innings with a 4.73 FIP. With more than 100 innings at the minor league’s lowest level, the success hasn’t quite come together.
RHP Mack Anglin
Prev: 70 Now: 76
Anglin has an impressive slider and a fastball with the potential to be above average. Unfortunately, a freak injury covering first on a ground out disrupted his 2023 season. Anglin will now be 23 — turning 24 in July — with less than 50 minor league innings. He will need to move through the system extremely fast to remain a true prospect. Even then, it’s probably a relief ceiling for the big RHP.
INF Brennon McNair
Prev: 63 Now: 71
McNair has plenty of tools and potential, but it hasn’t quite come together on the field quite yet. MLB Pipeline snuck him into the team’s Top 30 at one point last season, but that seems extremely optimistic. It’s unclear what McNair’s long-term position may be and his only dependable asset right now is his speed.
