Every season the top prospects in each farm system (the Royals included) usually headline the start of the minor league season. Although a team’s top five or top ten prospects are usually the cream of the crop, it doesn’t scratch the surface of the 116 players filling minor league rosters to start the full-season slate for each affiliate. That 116 doesn’t even scratch the surface of the dozens more who will debut later in the season from free agency, return from injury, and the lower minors such as the Complex League. The minor leagues are an entirely different animal than simply following the handful of best-ranked prospects in an organization.
Each offseason, I create my list of Royals prospects that you are almost certainly too low on. Last spring I talked about Emmanuel Reyes, Javier Vaz, and Lizandro Rodriguez. Unfortunately, the Lizandro hype didn’t quite pan out but there’s still time for that. So without further ado, I give you the 2024 Royals prospects that you’re probably too low on.
OF Carson Roccaforte
If you’ve followed me to any degree, you’ve almost certainly heard my thoughts on Carson Roccaforte. He was selected by the Royals in Comp Round B last summer. A late riser within draft circles, Roccaforte showed off impressive batted ball data for the Ragin’ Cajuns. He offers a nice mix of everything, from sound defense to a great approach and good contact ability. The one thing that didn’t come through last season at Low-A was his power potential. With a full offseason of work under his belt, expect Roccaforte to take a step forward next season for High-A Quad Cities.
He’s a sure thing to stick in center long-term and great defense gives him a rather high floor. He’s still somewhat young for a college product, similar to Cayden Wallace who was drafted in 2022. Roccaforte is a sleeper prospect who could quickly rise up prospect rankings if he shows up as I expect.
LHP Noah Cameron
The first of many lefties on our list is Arkansas St. Joseph native, Noah Cameron (Cameron played his college ball at Central Arkansas). Cameron fell in the 2021 draft after undergoing Tommy John Surgery and he’s still working back to full strength. His fastball touched 94-95 early last season, but for the most part, he sat in the lower 90s. The main draw for Cameron is his command, which might be the best in the entire farm system. He uses that strong command to attack hitters with a 60-grade changeup and an excellent 12-6 curveball.
Cameron was dominant for High-A Quad Cities last season, exploding up the leaderboard to be one of the minor league’s best pitchers to start the 2023 season. An early season promotion to Northwest Arkansas was met with struggle. Cameron also took nearly a month off mid-season for unknown reasons but never landed on the injured list. If his fastball continues working back, there’s a ton of untapped upside here.
LHP Ryan Ramsey
Had Ryan Ramsey pitched more in 2023, he might have finished the year on the shortlist of surprising arms to debut last season. Steven Zobac, Mason Barnett, and David Sandlin headlined that list but Ramsey was dominant in his own right. An early season injury sidelined him quickly, but he returned mid-season to set the Fireflies franchise record for consecutive scoreless innings. In all, over seven Low-A starts Ramsey owned an 0.54 ERA with 38 strikeouts and 10 walks over 33.1 IP.
A late-season promotion to Quad Cities doesn’t look impressive on paper — he had a 10.67 ERA at High-A. However, Ramsey’s FIP for the River Bandits was 2.74. He struck out 22 hitters in just 14.1 innings of work. Assuming he can remain healthy next season, it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see Ramsey debut with strong results in 2024, similar to what we saw from Noah Cameron last season.
LHP Oscar Rayo
I can’t keep talking about Manny Reyes nonstop, but Oscar Rayo is the next best thing when it comes to young international pitchers in the system. Rayo spent all of last season in Low-A Columbia and took a serious step forward as the season progressed. In all, he finished his year with a 3.15 ERA over 71.1 IP. Rayo walked just 1.51 hitters per nine innings over 23 appearances. The strikeout stuff doesn’t blow you away, but he’s still just 22 years old with a full four-pitch mix.
Rayo, much like Reyes, has shown the potential to move through the system. He’s a bit older and less refined than Reyes, but the potential is there. Long-term, there’s a huge amount of reliever risk but he’s missed bats and limited hard contact. He allowed just one home run all of last season and opponents hit just .236 against him. Rayo is just another strong performer that the Royals have signed internationally in recent years.
LHP Tyson Guerrero
The last of the lefties on our list, Tyson Guerrero took a step forward last season. The former Husky benefited as much as anyone from Kansas City’s new pitching development. From High-A in 2022 to High-A in 2023, Guerrero improved his K-BB% by 11%. His FIP improved from 5.80 to 3.81 and his slider became a force. A late-season promotion to Double-A Northwest Arkansas only allowed him three starts for the Naturals. His ERA ballooned to 6.55 in that small sample, but that was driven heavily by poor infield defense. His FIP over that span was better (but still not excellent) at 4.97.
Guerrero turned into a serious strikeout pitcher last season. A 10% improvement in strikeout rate is nothing to balk at and Guerrero sat above 30% for both the River Bandits and Naturals. Over a larger sample next season, it wouldn’t be surprising for Guerrero to continue that success against Double-A hitters and continue to make a name for himself as a rising prospect in the Royals system.
RHP Beck Way
A rough start to last season made way for a rough summer for Way last season. He started the year off the tracks and had a difficult time getting the wheels back on track. However, work in the bullpen helped him to rediscover himself as a pitcher. As a reliever, opponents hit .153 against Way — a full 150 points lower than his mark as a starter. His SO/BB was much better as well, finishing the year at 0.94 in starts and 2.67 in relief.
Way has great stuff and just needs to command it well. If you’ve discounted his future already, then you may end up pleasantly surprised by the end of next season. His slider and fastball can both be 60-grade offerings and could make him a dominant option in relief if the Royals continue to use him in that role.
INF Josi Novas
You’ve already heard plenty about Ramon Ramirez. His hype train has already left the station and is flying down the tracks. Novas, however, deserves some of that same attention after a strong showing in the Complex League last season. He’s a 6-4, 180-pound shortstop. He’s also still just 18 years old, making his age/size combination comparable to fellow prospect, Austin Charles. Over 35 games for the Surprise Royals last season, Novas slashed .324/.437/.450 with three home runs and a 17.0% walk rate.
There’s plenty of pause to be found here, however. Novas struck out an ugly 31.3% of the time. His BABIP was also an astronomical .493. Both of those things point to coming regression in 2024. However, despite such an ugly strikeout rate, Novas still owned a 130 wRC+ in 2023. He’s an extremely young prospect with a lot of serious tools that — if developed further — could make him a serious prospect for the Royals at third base.
