Royals Series Preview: Minnesota Twins

The next two weeks are of critical importance for the Royals as 11 of their next 14 games are against AL Central teams. With the division already tight, every game is going to matter. Moreover, the Twins were the one ALC team that posted a winning record against the Royals last year, so this matchup can’t be taken for granted despite the Twins entering the week a game behind.

The Twins are currently 3-6 with a -12 run differential to match. A lot of hype around them was based on their starting lineup and pitching, but neither have been able to impress thus far. More specifically, their top-level talent from names like Carlos Correa or Byron Buxton haven’t been doing the heavy-lifting the franchise has depended on so far. That all being said, it should be mentioned again that the Twins are always a tough opponent for KC and could still fire on all cylinders at any given moment.

At present, the Twins have the worst lineup in the American League by OPS+ (64) and OBP (.266). The only guys preventing this lineup from being a complete wash are Willi Castro, one of the better utility players in the game, Harrison Bader, who is off to an unusually great start, and Matt Wallner who has shown a lot of potential to be one of the game’s better hitters but has only two halves of the last two seasons due to injury. Speaking of injury, the Twins are certainly missing the talent of Royce Lewis, who is still on the IL with a hamstring strain.

There are only four teams that haven’t recorded a save yet, and somehow the Royals are facing the second in a row. The Twins bullpen has actually been pretty good so far with several of their arms offering quality strikeout stuff. The one that interest me the most is Cole Sands, who is off to a great start after posting a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7:1 last year. So far, Twins starters haven’t been going deep into games with the exception of Pablo López, so knocking out the starter early might go a long way for this four-game series.

Pitching Matchups

Monday, April 7 @ 6:40 PM
Simeon Woods Richardson (0-0, 4.50 ERA) v Michael Lorenzen (0-1, 5.06 ERA) – Woods Richardson has major league experience dating back to 2022 but didn’t become a permanent fixture in Minnesota’s rotation until last year, where he had a perfectly average ERA+ of 100 over 133 innings. His mix of four-seams, sliders, changeups and the occasional curveball doesn’t overpower hitters with much of anything, but the changeup is a quality pitch and he locates well enough to avoid hard contact. In fact, I could see him being a problem for the Royals lineup with how often he gets hitters to put the ball in the air or chase at his movement. In other words, expect a lot of whiffs and flyouts if the Royals don’t get the hang of it, although they did four runs off him last year between his two appearances and nine innings. Lorenzen could also have his work cut out for him if he can keep the ball in the park – I wouldn’t underestimate the Twins’ power potential even with an underperforming lineup.

Tuesday, April 8 @ 6:40 PM
Pablo López (1-1, 2.25 ERA) v Cole Ragans (0-0, 3.60 ERA) – López had a 2024 to forget, but it was largely due to a horrible first half that he was able to salvage with a strong finish. He should still be considered an ace; he still certainly pitched like one against the Royals last year, as he only allowed three runs over 13 innings pitched. He’s a classic mid-90’s fastball guy with a modern sweeper that righties hate dealing with and he’s one of the endangered SP’s that routinely pitches six-plus innings. Ragans will be an excellent counter if his third start is more like his second than his first, as the Cole Ragans we know and love has a career 1.93 ERA against the Twins through five starts and 28 innings.

Wednesday, April 9 @ 6:40 PM
Joe Ryan (0-1, 4.50 ERA) v Seth Lugo (1-0, 3.27 ERA) – Ryan has the strikeout-to-walk numbers of an ace pitcher but for some reason gets hit often and hard. Meanwhile, the Royals in 2024 only got seven hits off him in 12 innings, so the key to beating Ryan might be putting the ball in play and letting Minnesota’s mediocre defense mess things up. Ryan lives and dies by the four-seam fastball, as it’s accounted for two-thirds of all his thrown pitches so far this year; but he also has an expected batting average of .214 so it’s working. He also has yet to give up a walk this season, which is something else the Royals don’t love hearing about. Lugo made three starts against the Twins last year, two early on and one later in the season. The first two were great and the last was one of his worst starts of the year, so it would be preferred if Lugo started the season strong once again.

Thursday, April 10 @ 1:10 PM
Bailey Ober (0-1, 12.25 ERA) v Michael Wacha (0-2, 4.66 ERA) – Ober is a homegrown starter on his fifth MLB season and has a career 3.88 ERA in 478 innings for Minnesota. For some reason, the Royals absolutely despise this man and have given him an 0-4 record and 6.50 ERA from the ten times both parties have met. That being said, his most recent start versus KC was during the miserable Vinnie-less September and he took advantage by throwing seven scoreless innings of one-hit ball. Wacha will once again hope to brush off a weak start to the season, hopefully using the seldom-walking Twins lineup to polish the command some more.

Photo credit: Jay Biggerstaff – Getty Images