Spring is right around the corner, or if you live in Kansas it already is Spring — either way, baseball is on the horizon. The Royals have had a very active offseason and with Spring Training starting up, it is time to predict who the Royal’s MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and more are at this point in time. Beginning with the most obvious choice for MVP.
MVP: Bobby Witt Jr.
Yeah, this was obvious. Unless Salvador Perez has another record-breaking year as a catcher, or one of the young players has a 6+ WAR season this is Bobby’s accolade to lose. Based on Fangraph projections, Bobby is set to hit another 30 home runs, steal anywhere from 30-50 bases, have an OPS above .800, and more. He has all the tools to be a top-tier MLB player and has time to develop even further given he is only 23. With Bobby signing the biggest contract in Royals history he now has expectations to build upon last season and give Royals fans a glimpse of winning if the season pans out that way.
With Bobby being the most obvious choice for MVP, let’s discuss an interesting Cy Young conversation.
Cy Young: Michael Wacha
This might throw a lot of people off, given that Cole Ragans is coming off a stellar run last season and the Seth Lugo signing, but Wacha could be the team’s Cy Young for a couple of reasons. One reason is a potential Cole Ragans regression to the mean. He won’t be bad, hopefully, but he will be slightly above average if he can keep his strikeout rate up. The second reason is that while Lugo had a good year with San Diego, he doesn’t exactly throw a ton of innings and is projected to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm.
Finally, the last reason this writer believes Wacha could be the team’s Cy Young guy: groundball rate. For the most part, Wacha had a great year with San Diego last season, but he is also coming off a career-low groundball rate. If he goes more in line with his career this season and with the infield defense the Royals have, that could be the reason he takes the Cy Young. Now, obviously fixing one number isn’t the sole reason, but if Wacha fixes that and puts up similar numbers to last year he is most likely going to be the team’s best pitcher.
Rookie of the Year: John McMillon or Tyler Gentry (On/off MLB Roster picks)
For once it doesn’t seem like the Royals will have a plethora of rookies this season. Currently, they have five players who have a service time below .500. With that the choice of McMillon is both an interesting pick and a solid choice. McMillon, as noted in the State of the Org series, has a shot to be the Opening Day closer with his top-notch stuff. Preston Farr also notes that control might always be an issue with McMillon, but if he pans out he could be similar to Tommy Kahnle.
If there is a chance to put Gentry in a place, this writer will do so. Gentry will get his shot with the team this year, hopefully before the All-Star Break. He plays the corner outfield and has a complete bat to go with a great approach and at any point he would help the Royals in many ways. More than likely it will be McMillon even if he isn’t the closer come Opening Day. Next up on the awards list we cover the most improved player.
Most Improved Player: Maikel Garcia
Maikel Garcia takes a big next step in his career this season. He already has the Gold Glove-caliber defense, but had some questions with the bat last season. In the Winter League this offseason, however, it seemed like Garcia was tearing the cover off the ball and showing a ton of power. Will that translate to the Majors? We will see, but he will need to up his launch angle a tad and barrel the ball more than 3.9%. Maikel taking that next step will be crucial for the Royals in the coming years as another elite defender with a good bat will solidify the lineup. Let’s head back to the bullpen for the last award.
Reliever of the Year: Will Smith
The Royals bullpen has a couple of great options for this accolade, but Ole’ Reliable will probably be the best on the roster. Will Smith has built a career off being reliable in any role given to him, outside of starting. He has the closer pedigree and can slot into the set-up roles easily. He has a great slider, good control, and can generate whiffs at a good rate. Smith’s biggest problem from last season was his LOB% being at 55.6%. That mixed with a career-low groundball rate doesn’t work well together, but he still was a one-WAR reliever. If he can generate more grounders and leave runners stranded more often then he should run away with this accolade.
That does it for this award show. The Royals have many different options for all of these awards, maybe except for MVP, which could be a sign of good things to come if multiple players develop and improve during the year. Either way, the Royals have a ton of interesting players on the roster and any one of them could break out, thus leading to a way too early accolade piece.
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