It is the dead of winter: both literally and figuratively when it comes to baseball’s offseason. The excitement of free agency has slowly worn off, the winter meetings are a distant memory, and spring training is far enough away to where even Arizona’s warm sunshine can’t be felt. Now, it is not all doom and gloom, the Royals have a lot to look forward to in 2025: they are coming off their first postseason appearance in nearly a decade and have done enough this offseason to keep their postseason hopes intact for the upcoming season. The farm system is in a better place than it has been since the graduation of Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, and Nick Pratto, possessing more depth and top-end talent than the previous few seasons. The Royals’ last two first-round picks, Blake Mitchell and Jac Caglianone, are both top 100 prospects in all of baseball. Let’s take a look at how they, and three other top 5 prospects, can improve in 2025.
*Prospect rankings based on MLB Pipeline’s top 30 list for each organization.
What is one area of improvement for each prospect?
1. Jac Caglianone (1B)
2024 season stats (A+): 126 PA, .241/.302/.388, .690 OPS, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 2 SB, 20.6 K%, 5.6 BB%
One area of improvement: Walk rate
It is well-documented that Caglianone has an aggressive plate approach, which is expected and somewhat encouraged for a player who is a true power hitter. You want that kind of player to be aggressive and stand in the batter’s box looking to hammer the ball, but there should be a certain standard of plate discipline regardless. Caglianone is assuredly not a leadoff hitter, his role is not to do everything in his power to get on base, but there can certainly be growth in his overall plate approach. A 5.6 BB% is not rock bottom, but it isn’t great either. I would love to see him work his way up to a 7-8% walk rate before knocking on the door of the big leagues. This would be a huge boost to his game and round out his profile even more. Thankfully, his strikeout numbers aren’t terrible, which wouldn’t be surprising given his hitting profile. If Caglianone can continue the power surge he showed in the Arizona Fall League (5 HR in 100 PA), and increase his plate discipline, he will be on the precipice of the major leagues in no time.
2. Blake Mitchell (C)
2024 season stats (A): 466 PA, .238/.376/.439, .815 OPS, 18 HR, 50 RBI, 25 SB, 30.5 K%, 17.0 BB%
One area of improvement: Strikeout rate
If you’ve read any analysis on Mitchell, his strikeout rate is bound to get mentioned. It was undoubtedly the weakest area of his game in 2024 and is especially notable since it occurred in the lowest level of the minors. I am willing to give it a pass since he was a 19-year-old in his first full season of professional baseball in 2024. Undoubtedly, his swing-and-miss tendencies will be a focus of his offseason, and I expect him to lower his strikeout rate in 2025. There is little else to nitpick about Mitchell’s game; after all, he was the Royals’ George Brett Hitter of the Year last year. His on-base ability remained elite despite the strikeout struggles, aided by his incredibly impressive 17% walk rate.
3. Ben Kudrna (RHP)
2024 season stats (A+): 69.2 IP, 3.49 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .226 OBA, 71 K, 32 BB, 2.22 K/BB
2024 season stats (AA): 45.2 IP, 5.32 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .284 OBA, 48 K, 21 BB, 2.29 K/BB
One area of improvement: Consistency
Kudrna’s area of improvement may be misleading, as he is generally steady and consistent on the mound from start to start. You can almost always count on getting 5-6 solid innings from him. The consistency I’m referring to is related to mid-season promotions. In each of the last two seasons, he was promoted during July and struggled with his new team. This isn’t fully unexpected, as any jump in competition will come with bumps and bruises, and Kudrna has already proven that he can bounce back from year to year (see his High-A stats in 2023 compared to 2024). I would love to see him earn a promotion to Omaha this year and continue to see success without a major dip in his effectiveness. After all, this will be key upon promotion to the big leagues in the future, potentially during the middle of the season.
4. Blake Wolters (RHP)
2024 season stats (A): 55.2 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, .261 OBA, 46 K, 25 BB, 1.84 K/BB
One area of improvement: Endurance
A lot of hype surrounded Wolters heading into his first season of professional baseball, and rightfully so. High schoolers who can touch 98 MPH are hard to find, especially with the poise and maturity that Wolters displayed on the mound. The Royals always intended to limit his innings in 2024, but not as much as they ended up doing. Wolters had his time between starts extended multiple times throughout the season and ended up going on the Development List on July 11th, where he remained for the rest of the season. A drop in velocity throughout the season was a major factor in limiting his innings and cutting his season short. I am actually encouraged that the Royals are playing the long game with Wolters. There is no reason to rush the 20-year-old during his first full season of professional baseball. With that being said, I would love to see him increase his workload in 2025. Somewhere between 80-90 innings pitched would be a step in the right direction and maintaining his velocity will be a key focus this season.
5. Carter Jensen (C)
2024 season stats (A+): 376 PA, .271/.386/.435, .821 OPS, 10 HR, 39 RBI, 16 SB, 22.1 K%, 15.2 BB%
2024 season stats (AA): 170 PA, .233/.300/.480, .780 OPS, 8 HR, 28 RBI, 1 SB, 26.5 K%, 8.8 BB%
One area of improvement: Plate discipline in upper levels
There is not much to critique about Jensen’s 2024 season. It was a great one in nearly every regard: power (especially in AA), run production, overall walk and strikeout rates, and even swiping 17 bags. The most notable change between his High-A and Double-A numbers is his increased strikeout rate and sharply decreased walk rate. I don’t think this is overly concerning and I expect it to improve in 2025. The jump from High-A to Double-A can often be the most challenging, with more developed talent competing at the Double-A level. Jensen struggled to hit in 2022 and 2023, but his walk rate kept his offensive production afloat. If he has turned a corner with the bat moving forward, his decreased walk rate is less of an issue, but I think it is an integral part of his game that he will want to work to improve.
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