It was nothing short of a bounceback season for outfielder Gavin Cross in 2024. The 2022 first-round pick slumped to just a 91 wRC+ with High-A Quad Cities in 2023 but debuted this season with Double-A Northwest Arkansas. The season results finished much better for Cross. In 101 games, he slashed .261/.342/.428 with 15 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Those marks were good for a 115 wRC+ this season. He’s far from the hitter we dreamed of when first drafted, but Cross is finally starting to put it all together. He’s positioned well to make a big league debut next season.
Despite the success, the season can truly be divided into a tale of two halves. Cross made two trips to the injured list this season. Once in June, then again to finish the season, both instances occurred due to back spasms. From Opening Day through the end of the first half on July 14, Cross was hitting .289 with a .152 ISO and a 125 wRC+. From July 15 on, most marks were much worse. Cross hit just .195 over the second half of the season. In 30 games, his ISO jumped to .204 but the overall offensive value was worth just 92 wRC+ in that span. Cross didn’t see a serious change in the strikeout rate. It was right around 24% for the entire season, with no change from the first half to the second. So what changed that impacted Cross’s production?
Timing for Cross seemed off in the second half, and injury likely had a large part to play
Comparing swings from Cross in the first half of the season to those in the second half shows some notable differences. For most, the cause could be tied back to the back problems that Cross experienced for much of the season. First and foremost, take a look at the batting stance for Cross. On the left is the first half, and the right shows the second. The hand placement is noticeably different. During his hot stretch, Cross had his hands lower. By the end of the year, his hands had come up.
That change in stance impacts the batter’s timing. With hands lower, Cross was able to get to the baseball more quickly. He was ready to swing on time and with confidence. By the end of the season, it was more weak contact into outs as Cross was left trying to catch up his timing on many swings. As that hand placement transitioned into his swing load, Cross saw differences as well. Again here, you see how the hand placement changes where his hands go into the swing load motion. In the first half, Cross had his hands lower, with around 90 degrees between his shoulder and arm extension.
In the second half, it was much different. Cross kept his hands up, even through his swing mechanics. Here, you see his hands closer to his chin, versus at chest level. The angle from Cross’s shoulder to his arm extension is closer to 45 degrees than 90 degrees. The impact on swing timing was noticeable when comparing the two. Finally, as the pitcher is set to release the ball, Cross kept his hands down in the first half. By this point, he’s ready to plant his front foot and load transfer into the swing. This is an excellent position for Cross to generate line drive power and to attack all fields.
By the second half, it looked much different. Cross’s upper half is much more compact. He’s raised his hands, and the result is swinging far too much with his hands. The timing was all off with Cross’s upper half behind his lower half. To make up that difference, Cross began swinging with more lift. The result was more home runs and more power but at the expense of far less in-zone contact. The contact that Cross did make either ended up over the fence or became outs. Many of those outs had been line-drive hits in the earlier part of the season.
Consistency and health will be key for Gavin Cross as we look ahead to 2025
The early part of 2024 had Cross in conversations again as one of the farm system’s best prospects. He looked back on track, and there wasn’t a zero percent chance that he would go on to play MLB innings by the end of 2024. Now, with the end of the minor league season now behind us, it’s not even a consideration. Cross still has more to go when it comes to his development at the plate. It will be important for him next season to find consistency in swing mechanics. He’s a much better hitter when he’s not “golfing” his swing. By the end of the year with timing off, the swing path for Cross was much more upward-focused. He’ll do much better next season by settling his upper half and swinging with a more level bat plane.
The raw power that Cross possesses will still turn many baseballs into home runs if he can fix his upper half. He doesn’t have to swing with loft to get the ball over the fence. Health will certainly be impactful, however. Back spasms for much of the year do a lot to explain some of the issues with Cross’s upper half. By keeping his hands up, it helped to alleviate some of the wear and tear on his back. That’s where a full offseason will be key for Cross. Are the back spasms to the point where he needs to rework his mechanics entirely? If the first-half swing we saw isn’t going to work while keeping Cross healthy, it’s nearly impossible for him to re-work those swing mechanics in-season. Don’t be surprised if Cross returns in 2025 with more tweaks to his swing.