Caglianone has a skillset that you cannot teach

When the Royals drafted Jac Caglianone with the sixth pick in the draft last season, the whole world knew about his elite athletic profile. But, he has proceeded to wildly exceed those expectations this far in his career and has displayed power that I truly have never seen in my time evaluating baseball. He has already hit two home runs with exit velocities around 115 MPH, numbers that are almost never replicated. For perspective, the Royals hardest hit ball ALL SEASON in 2024, was 114.5 MPH, and Caglianone has done it twice in under a month.

In college Caglianone was well known for his elite power and hit 67 home runs over his last two years at Florida and was the only player ever to have back to back 30 HR seasons in the SEC. He holds Florida records for both HRs in a season as well as career HRs and he did it in just three seasons with the team. Now in spring training, he has flashed his elite power with 3 HRs in just 11 ABs and posted a whopping 2.098 OPS. While it is a small sample size, it is hard to not be excited by the incredible flashes of power throughout spring training so far.

Why should they extend him?

Preston Farr published something earlier this month about a potential extention for Jac Caglianone and what it could look like.

Now that he has seen some real success I think it becomes time that we talk about the possibility of the Royals offering him an extension soon. The Royals just locked up Bobby Witt Jr on a contract that seems to be a true steal for them and could keep him with the team through 2037. Now, the Royals have another elite prospect on the doorstep of Kansas City who they may want to keep playing along side Bobby Witt Jr for the foreseeable future.

If Caglianone makes his way to the majors, and shows that his power can translate to the major leagues, his price tag will sky rocket. Consider the difference between the contracts of Jackson Chourio and Giancarlo Stanton. If Caglianone reached his potential, he can be a hitter similar to someone like Yordan Alvarez or even better, and if extended soon, could be under a contract similar to Jackson Chourio.

Why should they not extend him?

Where there is potential for reward there is potential for risk. Signing a prospect to a long term deal is risky business and can be something that sets your team back if they don’t develop the way teams expect. If you extend a prospect like Caglinone to a long term deal and his development does not pan out the way the team hopes, it can be a thorn in your side for years.

A great example is someone like Ke’Bryan Hayes who signed a significant 8 year 70 million dollar contract but his bat has lagged behind so far in his career. Hayes takes up a significant part of the Pirates payroll, but his production has not matched his contract that locks him with the team through 2029.

My Thoughts

It is hard to be successful in any professional sport with out risk, and this is one that I would take. Despite the small professional sample size and some concern about strikeout rate, the skills Caglianone has are incredibly rare. If he shows power at the MLB level, similar to what we have seen so far in his career his contract could reach a number the Royals can’t afford. If Caglianone is willing to listen, the Royals should start talking as soon as possible. He and Bobby Witt Jr could make one of the best duos in baseball, and if they can keep Caglianone long term on an affordable deal, they should jump at it tomorrow.