With much of the Royals roster now settled, attention turns to Spring Training and the upcoming 2024 season. There could still be more moves, but I expect they’ll be minimal and geared toward providing organizational depth. Of course, the Royals finished last place in the mediocre American League Central division last season. They lost 106 games but hope to be much improved in 2024 after a small spending spree. Now, the team is on track to field their first Opening Day payroll north of $100 million since 2018. That spending may or may not help the team make the playoffs. Regardless, it’s a step in the right direction.
This time of year, I like to put together my list of bold predictions, under-the-radar prospects to watch, and an “All-Prospect Team” featuring my favorite prospects at each position for the upcoming season. This list gives you my pick of six bold predictions for the upcoming season. Attack me in the comments if I’m too far off the mark here.
1. Cole Ragans disappoints…kind of.
First and foremost. This is not an anti-Cole Ragans take at all. The breakout we saw from him last season made me a believer. There’s a good chance that he will stick around long-term, but expecting Ragans to become an immediate ace in his first true, full season as a starter seems like a tall task. He’s still not long removed from a second Tommy John surgery and the team will undoubtedly be careful with his inning workload to keep him in the mix. Brady Singer looked like a blossoming frontline starter before taking a serious step backward. I don’t expect that to be the case — Ragans offers a full pitch mix, for one — but wouldn’t be surprised to see Ragans pitch closer to a 4.00 ERA next season than the sub-3.00 ERA that some fans may be hoping for.
In five starts last September, Ragans pitched to a 3.90 ERA with a 4.35 xFIP. His SO/9 was under 10.0 after striking out 12.1 per nine innings from July through August. That’s a lot more in line with what I expect to see from him next season as more of the league starts to write the book on him. If Ragans can adjust mid-season, then he will still be plenty successful.
2. Tyler Gentry claims a starting spot by June and never looks back.
The plan for Tyler Gentry remains unclear and only got cloudier with the Hunter Renfroe signing. On the surface, Gentry struggled in 2023 compared to previous minor league seasons. Those struggles didn’t last too long, however. After the All-Star break, Gentry appeared in 51 games with 218 plate appearances. In that span, he walked 17.1%, limited strikeouts to just 20.2%, and slashed a robust .295/.427/.494. There’s a lot of Alex Gordon in Gentry’s game. He offers an on-base ability that the Royals severely lack, outside of Vinnie Pasquantino. On top of it all, he’s a good defender — easily better than Melendez, Velazquez, and Renfroe on the grass.
I expect the Royals will similarly approach Gentry next season to what we saw with Pasquantino in 2022. That season, he dominated Triple-A pitching before a mid-season call-up. At that time, it took a Carlos Santana trade to open the door, and this time around it could take a trade all the same. Once he arrives, don’t expect the 2022 George Brett Hitter of the Year to look back.
3. John McMillon is a top-30 reliever in baseball.
In the minors last season, John McMillon tallied a 22.6% swinging strike rate over 51.1 IP. That was good for the 23rd-best mark in the entire minor leagues. At the same time, he finished his minor league season with a dominant 32.8% K-BB% — second-best in the entire minor leagues. McMillon’s 15.95 SO/9 was the third-best mark in the minors while allowing just 0.18 home runs per nine innings. There’s a chance that he loses some command and reverts toward what he showed in 2022. I wouldn’t count on it, though.
Once McMillon made his major league debut last season, he looked the part of a future closer. A forearm strain ended his season prematurely but all signs point to him starting this season at full health. Jacob Milham, over at Kings of Kauffman, had an excellent interview with McMillon this week and the man is rearing to go. His mentality on the mound is downright vicious and his arsenal matches that mindset perfectly.
4. The Royals will trade some Minor League talent for proven talent.
At some point, whether the farm system ranks highly or not, Kansas City has to clear the logjam forming in their upper minor leagues. If the team is set to lean on their current infield, that leaves a lot of question marks around players such as Peyton Wilson, Tyler Tolbert, and Nick Loftin. Others, including Cayden Wallace and Javier Vaz, could be ready for the big leagues as early as September. None of those minor leaguers is going to headline a trade for proven MLB talent, but packages exist where the Royals could trade from a MiLB logjam to fill an area of need in the big leagues.
Maybe it’s Genry, even. The Royals seem happy to give MJ Melendez every opportunity to stick in the outfield. Whoever it is, I don’t know for sure. But the time seems to be coming when the Royals make a tough call to move on from some established minor league prospects to clear space for the future wave on the way.
5. Nelson Velazquez falls back down to earth.
12 home runs over 44 games is insane. It’s easy to see the optimism when a player debuts for a team and slashes .262/.353/.597. A robust .336 ISO only fuels that fire and before long the hype becomes a runaway train. Sadly, that sort of limited sample shouldn’t be expected as the norm, and the stats I listed above don’t even belong to Nelson Velazquez. They’re Ryan O’Hearn’s stats from his debut in 2018.
No, I’m not saying Velazquez will become the scapegoat that O’Hearn was by the end of his Royals tenure, but the comparison is worth looking into. Despite his .221 ISO (worse than O’Hearn in ’18) and .586 slugging percentage (again worse than O’Hearn in 2018), Velazquez struck out a ton. His strikeout rate was 28.5% on the season. From August 1 on, that mark was higher at 29.3%. In September, it was even higher at 31.5%. I hope it doesn’t happen, but I have a hard time believing that the Nelson Velazquez we saw last season is the one we can expect long-term.
6. The 2025 center fielder is not on the 2024 Opening Day roster.
The void at center field has been loud and clear for Kansas City ever since Lorenzo Cain walked off the field to end his 2017 season. Michael A. Taylor and Kyle Isbel have filled in with great defense and the promise of offensive upside. That upside, however, has remained untapped for years now. The center field situation was bad enough before last season that the Royals turned to Jackie Bradley Jr. This season behind Isbel, Drew Waters factors in. Dairon Blanco does as well and maybe even Samad Taylor. Garrett Hampson should fill a utility role and get some time there as well.
What all these players have in common is one simple fact: none of them are long-term answers in center field. Whether it’s via trade or from the farm system, I believe the Royals will have an entirely different center fielder that’s not a part of their current group by the time we get to Opening Day 2025. Tyler Tolbert is worth mentioning in that regard, as is John Rave, although probably less likely even than Tolbert. Just as unlikely, perhaps Gavin Cross will turn things around with splendor in 2024 and press the issue to open next season. More likely, I think the Royals will see that the current in-house options aren’t going to get it done and they’ll turn to outside the organization to find better solutions.