Spring is in the area, and Royals baseball is back today! It is an incredible feeling to see games back on the calendar. The Royals kick off their spring training against their Surprise Stadium partner and 2023 World Series Champion Texas Rangers. Daniel Lynch IV will toe the slab against right-hander Dane Dunning.
The Royals had an offseason we haven’t seen in quite some time. They went out and spent money on quality pieces to be competitive in the AL Central. Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, and Will Smith, among many others, were added to the roster to bring a veteran presence around many of the young guys. The rotation was in desperate need of this veteran depth. With all the newcomers and many of the young guys fighting for roster spots, what should we be watching for this spring?
Who Emerges as the Closer?
Will Smith has the most closer experience. James McArthur ended the year at closer. John McMillon has the nastiest stuff. On top of that, Nick Anderson, Chris Stratton, and John Schreiber have all been good middle-to-back end-of-the-bullpen type relievers. If you’re the Kansas City Royals, this is an excellent problem to have. While they don’t have the “certified closer,” they have a bunch of guys who could take the ball in the ninth inning and give you a chance to win.
Based on experience, the assumption is that Will Smith will be the first man up to take the ball in save situation come the regular season. He’s got 113 career saves to go along with a career 3.67 ERA. He doesn’t have the same fastball velocity he used to but has ranked in the 93rd percentile in Chase% and 69th Percentile in Whiff%, so he’s still able to get guys out. James McArthur is likely next in line. He was electric in September, pitching to a 0.00 ERA with 19 strikeouts and four saves in 16.1 innings pitched. John McMillon is the likely dark horse candidate. He’s got ELECTRIC stuff. He only briefly debuted before being shut down. The spring bullpen fight is going to be a fun one.
Will Daniel Lynch IV Finally Hit That Next Level?
Everyone in Royals country is ready for Daniel Lynch IV to take his game to the next level, including Daniel Lynch IV himself. With the Royals signing Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha this offseason, it sort of put Lynch IV’s role in flux. I wrote about what scenarios could possibly play out for Lynch IV earlier in the offseason. Currently, the rotation seems to be set as (in no particular order) Lugo, Wacha, Ragans, Singer, and Lyles.
My guess is this spring, there will be a competition between Jordan Lyles and Daniel Lynch IV. I know most fans would like to see Lyles on another team and Lynch IV for sure in the rotation, but unfortunately, that’s not how the offseason panned out. You have to imagine that the Royals want to try to salvage some kind of trade value for Lyles and would want to start him in the rotation. A strong spring could easily have Lynch IV taking a rotation spot from Lyles, especially if the Royals are all in trying to win like they showcased this off-season. Lynch IV looked really strong in the Dominican Winter League as he continued his rehab this offseason. Let’s hope that carries over to this spring so that fifth rotation spot is a lot more difficult of a decision.
Will Brady Singer Bounce Back to His 2022 Self?
Bring us back 2022 Brady Singer! That is the hopes and dreams for Royals fans, the Royals, and Brady Singer himself. A velocity dip and an actual out pitch were part of Singer’s struggles in 2023, but from interviews early this spring, he spent much of this offseason trying to get his fastball back and learning a sweeper. If you look at Singer’s baseball savant page, there is a lot of blue until you get to ground ball percentage and fastball extension. The fastball extension gives you hope if he regains some of his velocity. Ticking up a mile or two could make that fastball much more effective. He struggled to get guys to chase or whiff, so hopefully, with having a sweeper in his arsenal, he can see an uptick in strikeouts. It will be a pivotal year for Brady Singer and his development, and hopefully, this new Royals’ pitching regime can unlock something in the righty in their second year.
Does Matt Sauer Perform Well Enough to Stick on the Roster?
The Royals were high enough on Matt Sauer that they traded Dylan Coleman to the Houston Astros to clear a spot on the 40-man roster so they could take him in the Rule 5 draft. A Rule 5 draft pick has to stay on the 26-man roster all season long or be returned to the team. A poor performance this spring might not get Sauer returned to the New York Yankees as the Royals obviously like Sauer, and for good reason.
The trade for John Schreiber limits the openings in the Royals bullpen. If Sauer does have a poor spring, it may raise more questions for the Royals on what they can do with him. They will likely find a way to hide him in the bullpen if he has a bad spring, as they want to see what they can get from him in the long term. Sauer was the 25th-ranked prospect in the Yankees’ farm system, and he has a good fastball that sits in the low 90s and topped at 95 mph. When he was younger, he could top around 98. The best pitch is his near-plus slider. The Yankees were working him as a starter in the minor leagues, and he’s refined his stuff a bit. A move to the bullpen could have his stuff ticking back up again.
Will John McMillon Make the Team?
This has become a much more difficult question to answer with the addition of John Schreiber. McMillon has the most ridiculous stuff in the bullpen. The chances are that the Royals will carry eight relievers. Anderson, McArthur, Schreiber, Smith, and Stratton are locks as long as they stay healthy. With Matt Sauer being a Rule 5 draft pick, his chances of making the team are much higher. That leaves you with two spots for guys like Carlos Hernandez, John McMillon, Steven Cruz, Will Klein, Jake Brentz, Jake Taylor, and other non-roster invitees like Dan Altavilla, Tyler Duffey, Luis Cessa, and Sam Long.
On paper, you want to feel that McMillon will most definitely get one of those two spots. The two obvious choices are him and Carlos Hernandez. But they will likely also need to carry another lefty (Brentz, Long, Taylor) along with Will Smith, especially if Smith is the closer. McMillon is also still young and returning from an injury, so the Royals could opt to play it safe and give him a few games in Omaha. Regardless of what happens, McMillon will be in a Royals uniform sometime in 2024.
Which Non-Roster Invitee Will Impress the Most?
Earlier in the offseason, I covered some potential non-roster invitees who might be able to crack the 26-man opening-day roster. I mentioned the amount of non-roster invitee pitchers that have lots of big league experience in the section above. Tyler Duffey and Luis Cessa have had good success in the big leagues and are the two most viable options for cracking the Royals’ opening-day roster. Dan Altavilla is also afascinating and possesses the most upside out of non-roster invitees with big-league experience.
Out of the prospects, keep your eye on pitcher Chandler Champlain, pitcher Mason Barnett, and outfielder Tyler Tolbert. All made a lot of noise last year. Mason Barnett was the Paul Splitorff Minor League Pitcher of the Year, and Tyler Tolbert was the George Brett Hitter of the Year. All are very fun prospects, and it will be interesting to see how they handle big-league talent.