We are in the home stretch for position players in this series. In our eighth installment, we round out the outfield positions, this time looking at right field. What does the position look like in the Majors? Does the team have any depth on the way in the minor leagues? Right field will have a lot of similarities to left field in the minors and the future, but the Major League room is packed. Let’s start with that.
The Major League Options
Starters: Hunter Renfroe, Nelson Velasquez
This is the only position in the series to have two starters. The reason I say two starters is because the Royals could reasonably go either way at this spot. Both Renfroe and “Nelly Nukes” are power-focused bats who aren’t inherently great at defense (both posted negative outs-above-average (OAA) last season). The main difference between the two lies in their age. Renfroe is a veteran presence at 31 and Velazquez will be 25 entering his second MLB season. Renfroe has a cannon of an arm as well. Both are low on-base players who thump the ball in the five or six spots in the lineup, but let’s dive a touch deeper into both.
Starting with Renfroe, his time last season in Cincinnati and Los Angeles wasn’t good. He slashed just .233/.297/.416 for an OPS of .713 and a wRC+ of 92. The one thing he did well last season at the plate was keep his walk rate around 8%, which is his career average. The major reasons he struggled at the plate last season lie in the underlying numbers. Things like barrel%, hard hit%, sweet spot%, and average exit velo have all regressed. The biggest concern is that his barrel rate dropped from 10.9% in 2022 to 6.1% in 2023 leading to an expected slugging percentage of just .366 — both are career lows. This is concerning as he enters his age 32 season. Bat speed is important, especially to sluggers.
Velazquez, on the other hand, is coming off a season that saw him slug 17 home runs in 179 plate appearances. He has a similar walk rate to Renfroe, at 7.8%, but the underlying stuff is top-notch. His barrel rate, average exit velocity, expected SLG, and hard hit rate were all in the 75th percentile or higher last season, according to Baseball Savant. Some of these numbers are great, but in a small sample size, they will regress to the mean. Nelly’s barrel% of 21.4% — yeah, you read that right — just won’t hold up over a full season. If he can reproduce this over a bigger sample while not whiffing as much (33.7 whiff%) then he could be a staple in the Royals for a while.
The reason that both are starters is solely because Nelly will be the main DH, but will also slot into the lineup as a corner outfielder.
Backups: Drew Waters, Dairon Blanco, Garrett Hampson
Waters will slot in as the main backup in right field. Of the players in this group, he is the best defensively but has a questionable bat. If he can develop and show off the potential in his bat he could take the starting role. If he doesn’t his floor makes him the backup with solid defense and a streaky bat. Dairon Blanco also is going to be a backup here a few days each week. He is the fourth outfielder right now and will find time in every outfield spot. His speed and balanced bat will find ways into the lineup this season. Once again, as with all the outfield spots, Hampson will be one of the backups. He plays most spots well and will be a solid contributor if he walks and makes contact at decent rates.
This room is packed with players who have a lot of variance. The minor league guys could be called up quickly if there are multiple cold bats.
Potential Call-ups for 2024
Tyler Gentry
Here is our obligatory, “Tyler Gentry should be in the Major Leagues” spiel. Gentry is a primary corner outfielder with a good balanced bat, good defense, and a great approach at the plate. He might not hit for heavy power like many right fielders, but he projects to be a 15-20 home run bat who walks a lot (14.2% walk-rate last season). If either Nelly or Renfroe struggles or gets hurt, Gentry should be the guy on his way to Kauffman first.
John Rave
Another recurring prospect in this series. Rave plays good defense, has speed, and has a decent bat. The major thing holding him back is he hasn’t hit in AAA Omaha. He projects to be more of the fourth outfielder than a starter, but if he is thrust into a lineup he can hold his own. Keep an eye on Rave as he starts in Triple-A.
Tucker Bradley
On paper, Bradley is just a carbon copy of Gentry’s skill set with less power. Bradley gets on base at a lesser rate, albeit he gets on at 13.2%, but he makes solid contact and plays solid defense in the corner spots. He projects to be more of a doubles hitter than home runs, but he and Gentry could be the future in the outfield if they both get hot to start the year.
This may be the same group for call-ups as with left field, but they are a versatile group who have potential. The future at the spot is interesting as well.
A Look into the Future
Jared Dickey
Dickey showed up in the left-field segment, but he is primarily a right fielder. Dickey projects to be your prototypical right fielder — a slugger who has a good arm. He only played in 28 games for Low-A Columbia last season and didn’t hit a home run, but he got on base and still hit for contact. The thing to keep an eye on is the power as that was his main trait coming out of Tennessee.
Austin Charles
This might come as a surprise given he is a shortstop, but if that doesn’t work out he would be an ideal guy for right. His big-body frame with his potential 60-grade arm makes him intriguing enough to think about him as a right fielder. The bat has potential but needs more time to refine. He was a quick riser last season, so keep an eye on a potential hot start.
Spencer Nivens
Although he projects to be a left fielder, Nivens could easily play in right. In 28 games in Columbia, he didn’t hit well but he got on-base a ton. He walked 18.9% of the time while struggling at the plate. If he can start making contact then he could be similar to Robbie Grossman — good on-base skills with a low strikeout rate and some pop. Once he starts hitting he could be a quick riser in the farm system.
That wraps up the outfield in the Royals system. Overall, right field is clustered at the top and has a ton of variance. The main concern is who takes the starting spot and keeps it long-term as Nelly will be the primary DH. The future has a lot of potential, but also a couple of question marks.
Position grade: C (too much variance at the majors right now to warrant any grade higher than a C)
