With only two positions left in the series, the last two installments will focus on the arms in the Royals system. This time we will focus on the starting pitching in the organization. What does the position look like in the Majors? Does the team have any depth on the way in the minor leagues? The structure will be a tad different from the other installments. It will be mini-profiles on each starter since there are five.
The Major League Rotation
Starters:
Seth Lugo: The Royals gave him a three-year deal and he should at least be the odds-on favorite for the Opening Day start. He packs a nasty curve with some complimentary stuff which all-in-all should play very well in Kauffman. For more detail on Lugo, we covered him in the “New Player Spotlight” series.
Cole Ragans: Talk about making an impression, when Ragans was traded for in the Aroldis Chapman deal, many had concerns about a pitcher with two Tommy John surgeries. Once Ragans got to the majors, however, he provided a lot of hope and optimism for a Royals team that hasn’t had ace-like potential since Yordano Ventura (RIP Ace 30). Ragans blew up the pitching scene last season with his stuff, but there are still question marks. Can he do what he did over a full season? Can he keep the K-rate up and keep the walks in check?
Michael Wacha: Another free agent acquisition for the Royals who looks to solidify the rotation. He signed a two-year deal after two good seasons in San Diego. Wacha is similar to Lugo where you know what you’re gonna get from him. The Royals will pencil him in as the number three guy in the rotation and expect an ERA around 3.50, 140 innings pitched, and 120 K’s — all of which are within his career averages. The main concern with Wacha is the innings pitched average because he is good two times through the order but the third time is rough. He had an ERA over seven last season the third time through and our own Jackson Wilks explains in Wacha’s player spotlight, “he needs to prove he can either go the distance more often or pitch well enough to be worth the strain on the bullpen.”
Brady Singer: The development of Singer is a cause for concern for the Royals. He finished with nearly three fWAR in 2022 but followed that up with a dud of a 2023 season. Singer still had a 1.9 fWAR season but inconsistency riddled the year. On his month-to-month splits, Singer started and ended the year with ERAs above eight, in March/April and Sept/Oct. That is nearly 30% of his innings being terrible. On the bright side, however, during the Summer, Singer was solid with an ERA of around 3.93. The main concern still is that Singer is still a two-pitch pitcher, so his ceiling is capped until he throws his changeup a tad more.
Daniel Lynch IV: Rounding out the rotation will be Daniel Lynch IV. He is coming off his best time in the Majors but ended the year on the injured list. Lynch had a couple of games where he shined, specifically his seven-inning outing shutting out Detroit, but there were signs in that game that described Lynch’s season. For one, he had two K’s in that game which isn’t bad given the result but that was Lynch the whole year. Lynch had a K/9 of just 5.85 and a K% of 15.2%. Both are not good in the slightest. Another issue he had was the home run ball as he gave up 1.55 per nine innings. He hasn’t lived up to his potential, but he will at least get another shot in the back end of the rotation.
Potential Call-ups/Replacements for 2024
Kris Bubic
Bubic is the reason I will say replacements in this section, solely because he has a shot to take a rotation spot once he comes back from injury. Last season looked to be the best version of Bubic anyone has seen. He had a 9.00 K/9, 1.13 BB/9, and a 0.56 HR/9 rounding out a nice 2.63 FIP. The underlying numbers also show solid development as Bubic limited barrels, generated more whiffs, and got more grounders last season. He did all of this with a BABIP of .375 as well, which is an absurd number. Once he comes back from his injury, Bubic might just slot into the rotation if Lynch struggles.
Mason Barnett
A surprising addition to Spring Training, as a non-roster invitee, Barnett could be a quick riser with his stuff. He blazed through High-A and put up good numbers to round out his time in AA. Barnett was the Royals Paul Splittorff Pitcher of the Year Award winner and the numbers back that up. He had a FIP of 3.23, struck out 30% of the batters he faced, and walked 10% of those hitters. Barnett has a ton of upside and many scouting reports have his stuff graded at 50 or above. Our own Preston Farr likens Barnett to Drew Rasmussen based on the stuff and command.
Chandler Champlain
Another intriguing arm in the Royals system, Champlain has good stuff and is a solid all-around arm. He isn’t the flashiest pitcher, but he has the upside to be a middle-of-the-rotation guy. Between him and Barnett, Champlain has some more things to work on to start the season as he added a splitter to his repertoire. Another thing Champlain needs to work on is the home run ball as he gave up a HR/9 of 1.36 in AA. If Champlain starts hot and fixes those issues then he could be a call-up if the rotation is hurt or struggling. He also has some upside in the bullpen if that is the route he has to take.
A Look into the Future
Frank Mozzicato
Mozzicato has had a rollercoaster ride to start his pro-ball career. In Low-A he looked solid with some ironing out to do at the age of 19, but there were flashes of that upside. Then in High-A, he had a dud of a season stat-wise. He is still a high-upside pitcher who will have growing pains, he is only 20, but some things need work. One of those is just his command, he walked 18.5% of hitters he faced and his home run rate ballooned in the transition to High-A. A key concern with “Mozz” is his fastball velocity, but as Preston Farr explains his VAA is great and can be impactful even without the velo. “Mozz” has top-notch stuff and is only 20, so he has time to fix some things.
Ben Kudrna
Kudrna is an interesting arm in the system as he has the potential to be a future ace, but some things are keeping him back from that. To note, he probably has the best overall stuff in the system with four pitches potentially being above average. The main issue he has is he hasn’t found his “out” pitch. He has the swing-and-miss stuff as he ranked 5th in the system for swinging strike rate, but a K-rate of 19.2%. Kudrna already has a mid-90s fastball to pair with good complimentary pitches, he just needs to iron some things out. Keep an eye on him as a riser this season and going forward.
David Sandlin
Rounding out the future is David Sandlin. Sandlin is a prime candidate for a quick rise through the system with his stuff and command. He has a fastball, splitter, and slider which are all at least average right now. Throw in solid command and Sandlin has a solid floor with an intriguing ceiling. His transition to High-A wasn’t great, but he also had two games started. The stuff and command are intriguing with Sandlin and fans could see him in the Majors as soon as 2025 if he develops quickly.
The starting pitching in the Royals system is an interesting group. Overall, the major league guys project to be average, which is great. The minor league and future guys have some high upside but need some ironing out.
Position Grade: B (Average Major league rotation mixed with upside minor league system)