The Royals bullpen has been a source of frustration for Royals fans for most of the 2024 season. It makes sense when one looks at the data.
Based on reliever fWAR via Fangraphs, the Royals bullpen ranks 24th overall with a 0.6 fWAR total. However, the Royals relief corps looks relatively unimpressive when diving deeper into individual categories.
The Royals bullpen ranks last in K/9, second-to-last in H/9 allowed, and third-to-last in WHIP. Even though the Royals are 48-42 as of Saturday, the bullpen’s inconsistency has made it challenging for fans to feel comfortable late in games, with last night’s loss to the Rockies being a prime example.
The Royals offense should be to blame for Kansas City’s disappointing 4-2 loss to a 31-57 Rockies team. However, much of the blame was directed to reliever John Schreiber, who gave up two runs on three hits and a walk in 0.1 innings of work.
Schreiber has been one of manager Matt Quatraro’s most trusted relievers this season.
Schreiber’s 39 appearances lead all Royals relievers, just ahead of Angel Zerpa (38) and Chris Stratton and Nick Anderson (who both have 35). Schreiber’s 4.46 ERA is not an impressive mark. That said, considering the Royals’ bullpen ERA is 4.44 for the season, it’s not like Schreiber is considerably worse than the overall group.
Furthermore, Schreiber had an incredible month in April, posting a 0.63 ERA in 14.1 IP. That strong performance earned him the trust of Quatraro in high-leverage situations. Unfortunately, it’s been downhill from there, as Royals fans can see from Schreiber’s Fangraphs monthly splits.
Schreiber posted ERA marks of 6.52 and 6.48 in May and June, respectively. He also has gotten off to a rough start in July, as he has a 13.50 ERA in two outings this month.
Based on his recent struggles, it’s understandable to think that Schreiber doesn’t belong on the Royals roster. However, are Royals fans acting too rashly about his recent struggles? Or did Schreiber peak in April, and is he a worse option than other options in the Royals bullpen or even in Omaha?
Let’s examine the data, the changes Schreiber made in his move to Kansas City, and what role the 30-year-old reliever could have for the remainder of the 2024 season.
Groundballs Up; Called Strikes and Whiffs Down
The Royals acquired Schreiber from Boston as a reliever who could minimize barrels and keep the ball on the ground to help the Royals get out of jams (thanks to the Royals’ strong infield defense).
On one end, Schreiber is accomplishing that goal for the Royals.
According to Savant, Schreiber only allows a barrel rate of 3.5%, which ranks in the 94th percentile. Furthermore, his 55.3% GB% ranks in the 93rd percentile and is an 11.9% improvement from his mark in 2023 with the Red Sox.
When Schreiber can keep the ball low in the zone, he’s been able to generate the groundballs the Royals need to get outs and, consequently, through innings. This year, he’s been more adept at generating groundballs on pitches in the lower areas of the strike zone compared to his last season with the Red Sox.
In the 2024 zone, notice the amount of red in zones 7 through 9, which is the lower edge of the zone. That is a marked improvement from his performance in those zones last year. Furthermore, he has been more successful in generating more groundballs on pitches thrown in the middle of the zone. His 63% groundball rate on pitches in zone 5 (middle-middle) is a 38-point improvement from a season ago.
Here’s an example of Schreiber’s ability and four-seam pitch quality in zone 5, causing the Yankees’ DJ LeMahieu to roll into an easy groundout to second baseman Garrett Hampson at Kauffman.
Schreiber only allows a hard-hit rate of 37.5%, a barrel rate of zero, and an average launch angle of five degrees on pitches in the middle-middle area. That shows that Schreiber has the potential to be the kind of reliever who can prevent innings from going south quickly since he’s not allowing barrels that could turn into extra-base hits.
That said, while the ability to minimize barrels has been commendable, it has come at the expense of his called and swinging strike ability.
According to Pitcher List, Schreiber has seen declines in his fastball and breaking CSW numbers this season.
As Royals fans can see, his fastball CSW% has declined by one percent, and his secondary CSW% has regressed by 6.7 percent from last year. His four-seamer CSW% has improved by 4.4%, but his sinker CSW% has declined by 6.4%. Furthermore, his cutter CSW% is 26.7%, which ranks in the 40th percentile this year.
On a secondary end, his changeup CSW% is slightly up, but his sweeper CSW% is only 18.8%, which ranks in the 11th percentile. The sweeper has replaced his slider this year, and there seem to be some growing pains with the pitch (more on this later).
As a result of the fewer called strikes and whiffs, Schreiber’s K% is down 17.2%, which is 8.8% lower than a season ago. His whiff rate is down to 19.9%, a 5.6% decline from 2023. He simply isn’t getting whiffs in zones where he did a season ago, which can be seen in the zone whiff chart comparison below via Savant.
Last season, Schreiber regularly got whiffs in zones 1, 2, and 11. This season, his whiff rates are down 13%, 31%, and 29% in those zones, respectively. That makes him heavily reliant on his defense and BABIP luck.
In May and June, the BABIP luck changed, and consequently, the regression hit Schreiber hard over the past two months.
Another issue has been Schreiber’s increase in walk rates in May and June. After posting a 5.4% walk rate in April, it increased to 8.2% in May, 10.5% in June, and 15.4% in two outings in July.
A big problem is that Schreiber isn’t getting ahead of hitters as nicely as last year, which ties in with his lack of CSW consistency. His first-strike rate of 53.5% is 13% down from a season ago, and many of his other count numbers also explain some of Schreiber’s overall struggles this season.
Schreiber is doing a decent job of getting batters to chase in two-strike counts, as his 26.9% mark ranks in the 66th percentile. That said, his two-strike rate of 28.8% ranks in the 34th percentile, and his put-away rate (PAR%) is down 5.3% this season and ranks in the 17th percentile. His true-first strike rate (TF-Str%), which subtracts balls in play, is also 18.2% down from a season ago and ranks in the bottom 3rd percentile.
Thus, it’s not like Schreiber is frequently missing the strike zone.
Instead, he’s not as efficient against batters on first pitches, whether it’s not finding the strike zone or giving up balls in play too early in the count, which could be a sign of his struggles with command.
Schreiber’s Made Changes With Royals (Are Further Ones Needed?)
Schreiber is a different pitcher in Kansas City than in Boston (or even Detroit if you want to go that far back).
Let’s compare his PLV arsenal data from this season and a year ago.
Despite the lower CSW numbers this season, PLV rates Schreiber’s pitch arsenal as improved from 2023.
His overall PLV is 10 points higher, and his new sweeper is 20 PLV points higher than his slider. He is utilizing his sinker more, which is 15 points better than a season ago, and his four-seamer less, which is 13 points worse than in 2023. Lastly, he has introduced a cutter to his arsenal, which he throws 15% of the time and sports a solid 5.40 PLV.
Royals fans want to credit Seth Lugo, who has added more pitches to his repertoire to become a better pitcher. Schreiber has gone through the same process under pitching coach Brian Sweeney. Unfortunately, the results have been more mixed for Schreiber, which makes sense since reliever numbers can be more volatile (due to fewer innings pitched).
In terms of run value metrics from Savant, his four-seamer seems to be the most concerning pitch compared to the other ones in his arsenal.
The four-seamer has a -2 run value (minus is terrible) and sports the highest xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA. On the flip side, Schreiber’s four-seamer has been one of his better strikeout offerings, as it has a 25% K%. Nonetheless, to get those strikeouts, he’s putting his four-seamer in areas where it can get hit hard, and the latter has been happening more often with the pitch, much to his chagrin.
Here’s a comparison of his four-seam pitch characteristic data via PLV from this season and last year.
The pitch’s velocity is 0.4 MPH lower, and the PLV is down 12 points. That said, the pitch is the same as the other characteristics.
A more significant issue has been the location of the four-seamer this year compared to 2023.
The four-seamer was utilized more up in the zone against lefties last year and more on the glove-side edge against righties. This season, it’s been located arm-side against righties and lower glove-side against lefties. That could explain the difference in results despite the pitch characteristics of the four-seamer being pretty much the same over the past two years.
Here’s an example of Schreiber locating that four-seamer in that particular zone this year against the Rangers on June 21st and Nate Lowe taking it the other way for a double.
Thus, I am curious to see if Sweeney and the Royals pitching coach team are working with Schreiber to improve that four-seam location. While it’s nice that the sinker has been a better offering, the four-seamer could be compelling if he can command it better, much like he did a season ago.
Suppose the four-seamer continues to be a pitch Schreiber struggles with regarding command. In that case, one has to wonder if Schreiber will begin to utilize his new cutter more this year, which has shown some promising characteristics as a fastball offering.
Regarding his breaking offerings, Schreiber has modified his slider to take the form of a sweeper. His slider was his most thrown pitch a season ago, and it seems to compare quite similarly to his sweeper this year on a pitch-characteristic end.
Schreiber’s sweeper is a more horizontal offering with less vertical break but a sharper arm-side break. On a location end, the pitch sports similar plvLoc+, though based on the zone chart embedded in each chart, the sweeper tends to be located on the glove side compared to the slider (which is more all over the zone, especially the middle).
Savant classified his slider as a sweeper last season (unlike Pitcher List). That said, Royals fans can see the difference between the two pitches in the clip compilation below, as the sweeper thrown this year sports less vertical movement than the pitch a year ago.
Schreiber isn’t throwing his sweeper as much as a season ago, but that’s been a good thing, as he’s gotten 1.2% more whiffs on the pitch in 2024. Thus, Royals fans should continue to watch the development of the sweeper this year and if he can perhaps utilize it more diversely in the zone than he currently is.
Commanding the sweeper in other areas could help boost the pitch’s value and make it an even more effective swing-and-miss option against opposing hitters.
What Should Schreiber’s Role Be? (Even With Acquired Arms Coming On Board?)
If fans want to know why Quatraro relies on Schreiber so heavily, they can look at the Royals bullpen Win Probability data from this season via Fangraphs.
Schreiber’s 0.66 WPA (win probability added) is just behind James McArthur’s 0.76 mark. Furthermore, Schreiber leads all Royals relievers in shutdowns this season with 19. Shutdowns and Meltdowns can be defined as follows via Fangraphs:
A Shutdown is when a reliever accumulates greater than or equal to 0.06 WPA in any individual game.
A Meltdown is when a reliever’s WPA is less than or equal to -0.06 in any individual game.
“Shutdowns & Meltdowns” by David Appleman; 2010
Granted, he also is tied for the most meltdowns on the team with 8 (along with Will Smith and Angel Zerpa). Nonetheless, Schreiber’s ability to come into difficult situations and affect the team more positively than not has earned him a role as one of Kansas City’s primary high-leverage arms in the bullpen.
As I Tweeted last night during the Rockies game, Schreiber’s shutdown and meltdown numbers have regressed over the past two months.
Schreiber is probably hitting a stretch where he probably is who he is, which isn’t the “shutdown specialist” he was for two months. I also think he’s not a “meltdown maniac.” He performs well in high-leverage situations when the BABIP is working for him. His WPA/LI, which measures WPA in high-leverage situations, is currently fourth-best on the team at 0.15 and is better than Zerpa, Carlos Hernandez, Nick Anderson, and Will Smith.
Therefore, I believe Schreiber has a role on this team, even if they acquire a reliever or two by the Deadline. He may no longer be needed in setup situations, but the batted ball data and pitch metrics show that he can solidify the bullpen in the middle innings, which they lack. Schreiber has been a much better value than Smith, Anderson, and perhaps even Chris Stratton, three relievers acquired in the offseason who were expected to boost the bullpen in 2024.
I am unsure if Schreiber deserves more high-leverage outings once some bullpen help arrives via trade (which I think will happen, just not as “high-profile” as Royals fans may want).
However, he’s still a benefit to this team, and his 0.5 fWAR, the best mark of a Royals reliever this year, proves that. The Royals probably weren’t expecting Schreiber to be thrust into such a pivotal role so early this year, and thankfully, he outperformed expectations in April and early part of May.
Now, Schreiber has regressed to what he is probably. He could have some positive regression coming after a rough couple of months. That would make him an ideal middle-innings reliever who could be utilized like a right-handed Zerpa, who has seen success in such a role.
It’s understandable to see Royals fans want to part with everyone in this bullpen (or most relievers), especially with a postseason berth looking less likely with every loss.
That said, when taking a deep breath and looking at the complete picture, Schreiber has provided positive value this year and can continue to provide value, significantly, if his role can be modified to take the pressure off.
Photo by: Mike Carlson/AP