The Royals have a crowded outfield as it stands now, with seven players vying for the Major League roster. One of those seven — Kyle Isbel — has a solid chance to stay in the lineup, mainly due to his defense. After Isbel though, there are many questions as to who wins either corner outfield spot.
One Royals player stands out most as a dilemma facing the Royals in the outfield. MJ Melendez has shown flashes in his two seasons with the Royals but hasn’t put together a full breakout season quite yet. He had a strong second half of last season that saw him slash .273/.352/.485 with a wRC+ of 124.
While he ended the year on a tear, with how the Royals have conducted themselves this offseason it begs to question if the team banks on his potential or trades him at his highest value.
The argument for keeping Melendez.
If the Royals keep Melendez in town, they’re banking on his second half of last season. He blended his on-base prowess with power. Melendez has a career isolated power (ISO) mark of .170 and a walk rate of around 11%. Another thing Melendez does very well is getting hard hits. He ranked in the 91st percentile for hard-hit rate last season, according to Baseball Savant. He finished in the 96th percentile for average exit velocity. Banking on these numbers hasn’t worked for the Royals before (Ryan O’Hearn), but the on-base ability of Melendez gives him some leeway.
Then we get to the negatives Melendez has shown. His high K% of 28.2% last season isn’t great, plus his defense is a work in progress after switching positions last season. Melendez still has the potential to fix his defense as he has a plus arm, ranking in the 93rd percentile in arm strength last season. An offseason focusing on one position may do wonders for him.
Even if Melendez starts the season poor he still has two minor league options remaining. Could the Alex Gordon treatment be in store for Melendez? If the Royals do that they have Tyler Gentry waiting in the wings to get his shot at the majors. Lastly, of the corner outfielders on the roster (Nelson Velázquez, Hunter Renfroe, and Drew Waters), Melendez is the most likely to not DH a ton. This gives him some benefit of the doubt that he will garner more playing time.
If the Royals bank on Melendez’s development he could be a piece for the future. The issue is that he is the most valuable outfielder on the Major League roster.
The argument for trading Melendez
The Royals may have spent a lot of money on pitching this offseason, but that doesn’t have to stop. In baseball, you can never have too much pitching. The Royals currently have some intriguing young pitching with Frank Mozzicato, Ben Kudrna, and David Sandlin. Despite that, it never hurts to add more young pitching. Plenty of teams have a need in the corner outfield. The teams needing one the most are the Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers, and Seattle Mariners.
The Royals have been tied to trade rumors with the Marlins on a Vinnie Pasquantino for Jesus Luzardo trade. Instead of a trade for Pasquantino, what might a Melendez trade look like? The Marlins have a rotation filled with potential, including Luzardo, Eury Perez, and Sandy Alcantara. One player on the outside looking in is Edward Cabrera. Cabrera has a couple of seasons under his belt with some ups and downs.
One key issue with his playstyle is walks. His career walk rate is 14% and finished higher at 15.2% last season. Both Cabrera and Melendez have potential, but both may benefit from a change of scenery. The next team needing a corner outfielder is the Texas Rangers. The Rangers entered the offseason with Evan Carter, Leody Taveras, and Adolis Garcia as their outfield. It is solid, but the Rangers may not bank on Carter being on the Opening Day roster given his age. That is where MJ Melendez could bridge the gap for Carter. The Rangers have some intriguing arms in their system. Any of Josh Stephan, Aiden Curry, or Mitch Bratt would be good targets in a deal.
The last team in need of corner outfielder help is the Seattle Mariners. They have Julio Rodriguez patrolling center field with a mix of Dominic Canzone, Dylan Moore, and Cade Marlowe in the corners since Teoscar Hernandez is in free agency. Melendez has five years of team control, allowing the Mariners to lock up a corner outfield spot for some time. The main arm to target would be Emerson Hancock. Hancock saw some Major League action last season. Hancock could fight for a spot in either team’s rotation but Kansas City might need more than Melendez to get a deal done.
The offseason is still a long way from over and the Royals have options when it comes to the outfield. If they want to move anyone there, then Melendez should be the one to start shopping. Whether they bank on Melendez developing or not, it is an interesting dilemma to have in an active offseason for the Royals.