The Kansas City Royals season wrapped up last week. As is customary, Manager Matt Quatraro and General Manager J.J. Picollo met with the media to wrap up the 2024 season on Monday. The two laid out their thoughts on the 2024 season and gave some insight into what this offseason may hold for the organization. The highlights of the press conference started with the coaching staff. Quatraro and Picollo both made clear that the current coaching staff would return for next season. Former Royals hitting coach, Kevin Seitzer, was recently fired in Atlanta. Picollo said he’d reach out to Seitzer “as a friend” but that there are no current openings on the Royals staff.
Other notable comments on Monday included those around the 2025 lineup and some key players from this season. “Maikel [Garcia] is one of those guys we think can get better,” Picollo said of the 2024 third baseman. Garcia struggled down the stretch, finishing the season with an 89 wRC+. The Royals also hope to get more from left fielder MJ Melendez. Picollo called Melendez “perplexing,” and a player who works hard but is yet to see the results. Then came the two largest elements of the press conference. On payroll, Picollo stated that he expects to have similar flexibility to last offseason from owner John Sherman. He also stated that the top of the team’s offseason shopping list is a leadoff hitter and another middle-of-the-lineup hitter.
Kansas City is willing to spend money again if it means bringing in a leadoff hitter who gets on base and a bat for the heart of the order. With that in mind, who fits this offseason?
Leadoff options for the Royals may not mean simply more walks and on-base percentage
Starting with the leadoff spot, it’s important to put in context what matters from the leadoff role. In a more traditional sense, the leadoff hitter should get on base. In that regard, a high walk rate would be valuable alongside good contact and an ability to hit for average. Now more specifically, the Royals have never been a team that looks to take walks. Instead, they’ve looked for aggressive hitters who aren’t afraid to swing the bat and make contact. That was a factor when the team drafted Jac Caglianone — they liked his aggressive approach. The Royals ranked third in MLB in 2024 with 1,756 balls hit at 95 mph or more.
They ranked fourth in average exit velocity and seventh in hard-hit rate. As a team, the 2024 Royals posted a 49.0% swing rate. That mark ranked seventh in baseball, not far behind the Marlins, who led the league at 50.9%. Despite swinging so often, the Royals posted the fifth-lowest whiff rate (22.8%). The Royals want to swing and be aggressive and aren’t afraid to put hitters in their lineup who can do that while making contact at a high rate.
For those reasons, it’s worth looking beyond simply on-base percentage and walk rate when looking at Kansas City’s free agent options this offseason. Instead, zone contact rate and whiff rate matter just as much, if not more. In the quest for a leadoff hitter, the table below includes all outfielders and infielders who are or could be free agents this winter. Included for each are six key metrics that the Royals should consider this winter when adding to their lineup.
| Option | OUTFIELDERS | z-Contact% | o-Swing% | Whiff% | 90th EV | EV | HardHit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPTOUT | Cody Bellinger | 84% | 33% | 22% | 101.2 | 87.8 | 34.50% |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 75% | 29% | 34% | 107.2 | 91 | 47.40% | |
| Michael Conforto | 82% | 25% | 25% | 107 | 90.2 | 47.50% | |
| PLAYER | Mitch Haniger | 77% | 24% | 32% | 104.2 | 90.5 | 48.40% |
| Mark Canha | 83% | 24% | 22% | 101.8 | 88.4 | 37.70% | |
| Anthony Santander | 85% | 34% | 20% | 105.2 | 89.8 | 42.60% | |
| Harrison Bader | 86% | 34% | 25% | 103.4 | 87.2 | 36.70% | |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 70% | 32% | 38% | 102.6 | 83.5 | 32.20% | |
| MUTUAL | Manuel Margot | 87% | 30% | 21% | 104.8 | 87.3 | 35.00% |
| Alex Verdugo | 91% | 26% | 16% | 102.7 | 87.7 | 35.70% | |
| Max Kepler | 85% | 31% | 24% | 105 | 88.7 | 38.10% | |
| Tyler O’Neill | 76% | 26% | 34% | 107.2 | 90.9 | 50.00% | |
| Jason Heyward | 86% | 32% | 24% | 104.6 | 88.1 | 42.60% | |
| Austin Slater | 75% | 19% | 30% | 101.2 | 86.6 | 42.10% | |
| Adam Duvall | 84% | 34% | 28% | 105.8 | 86.9 | 37.10% | |
| MUTUAL | Randal Grichuk | 89% | 29% | 20% | 107.1 | 90.6 | 48.10% |
| Tommy Pham | 85% | 19% | 23% | 105.8 | 90.4 | 44.00% | |
| Jesse Winker | 85% | 19% | 20% | 102.9 | 87.8 | 38.60% | |
| Ben Gamel | 75% | 17% | 34% | 103.1 | 88.2 | 36.80% | |
| Jurickson Profar | 88% | 22% | 17% | 105.2 | 90.1 | 46.50% |
| Option | INFIELDERS | z-Contact% | o-Swing% | Whiff% | 90th EV | EV | HardHit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt | 78% | 30% | 27% | 105.5 | 91.2 | 51.40% | |
| Pete Alonso | 86% | 26% | 25% | 108.4 | 89.8 | 47.40% | |
| Alex Bregman | 91% | 24% | 13% | 102.7 | 89.1 | 42.30% | |
| CLUB | Anthony Rizzo | 89% | 34% | 19% | 102.4 | 86.7 | 34.70% |
| Josh Bell | 81% | 27% | 27% | 104.6 | 88.9 | 42.60% | |
| Gleyber Torres | 81% | 21% | 23% | 102.6 | 88.2 | 37.30% | |
| CLUB | Yoan Moncada | 89% | 23% | 24% | 101.8 | 90.2 | 34.50% |
| Willy Adames | 79% | 28% | 30% | 104.1 | 88.6 | 41.40% | |
| Christian Walker | 83% | 24% | 26% | 108.2 | 91.2 | 48.20% | |
| CLUB | Eugenio Suarez | 81% | 27% | 29% | 105.4 | 89.1 | 44.00% |
| Brandon Drury | 82% | 27% | 24% | 105 | 87.6 | 36.20% | |
| MUTUAL | Ha-seong Kim | 87% | 19% | 16% | 102.7 | 86.5 | 37.50% |
| MUTUAL | Kyle Farmer | 87% | 33% | 22% | 101.5 | 87.7 | 32.10% |
| PLAYER | Wilmer Flores | 93% | 29% | 14% | 100 | 83.5 | 29.30% |
| CLUB | Miguel Rojas | 91% | 27% | 14% | 101.2 | 84.1 | 29.30% |
| CLUB | Jorge Polanco | 78% | 24% | 28% | 104.6 | 87.5 | 39.00% |
| Joey Gallo | 67% | 22% | 40% | 104.4 | 90.2 | 48.40% | |
| Thairo Estrada | 90% | 35% | 21% | 103 | 85.9 | 33.60% | |
| CLUB | Brandon Lowe | 76% | 31% | 33% | 106 | 89.8 | 46.20% |
| Amed Rosario | 86% | 39% | 24% | 103.1 | 86.9 | 36.90% | |
| Kevin Newman | 90% | 28% | 17% | 98.8 | 84.1 | 25.80% |
Which leadoff hitters fit for Kansas City in free agency?
The Best Options
Jurickson Profar: Profar is 31 coming off of a four-win season for the Padres. He posted career-high marks across the board, including a .280 average, a .380 on-base percentage, and 24 home runs. He walks at a healthy rate but makes contact as well. Profar’s 88.0% zone contact rate ranks tenth in the upcoming free agent class. His 16.9% whiff rate is second among free-agent outfielders, trailing only Alex Verdugo. Profar is a complete package leadoff option. He makes great contact but also hits the ball hard. His 105.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and 46.5% hard-hit rate both rank near the top for this year’s free agent class. He fills the hole well for Kansas City while still offering some upside beyond simply on-base prowess.
If there are concerns around Profar, they center mostly on cost and age. Profar doesn’t have a lengthy track record of success. After debuting as a top prospect in 2012, it’s been a long road for the former Ranger. He was worth nearly negative two fWAR in 2023 and offers a lot of risk alongside the potential reward. Spotrac lists his market value at two years, $25. He’s also a terrible defender just about everywhere. There’s a chance he could play right field and offer some value, but his value is purely on offense.
Ha-Seong Kim: There’s something about Padres’ free agents and leadoff options, it seems. Kim just wrapped up his fourth MLB season since leaving the KBO after 2020. He’s been a solid 10.9 fWAR player over the last four seasons and a solid contributor for San Diego. He slashed .233/.330/.370 this past season and Spotrac gives Kim a market value of four years, $49 million. At still just 28 years old, Kim seems worth the cost more than Profar before him. Kim also provides exceptional defensive value. In 2023, Kim was worth 10 defensive runs saved as a second baseman and three others as a third baseman. He’s phenomenal on the infield and played exclusively at shortstop in 2024.
Kim has a Mutual Option with the Padres, meaning he could remain in San Diego. However, those mutual options seem rarely picked up. His chase rate (18.5%) and whiff rate (16.0%) are both among the best in this year’s free agent class. There’s some pop as well, with a 102.7 90th percentile exit velocity, but the real value is the contact and defense. Kim would set the table nicely for Bobby Witt Jr. and company and looks like the very best leadoff option this winter, should he hit the open market. That is before you consider some added risk. Kim finished the season on the injured list with a torn labrum. He’s targeting an early return next season, in mid-April or early May. That dampers his shine some, but the Royals have options to bridge the gap between Opening Day and his return from injury.
The Good Options
Randal Grichuk: Grichuk just turned 33 in August, so he’s far from a spring chicken. He signed a one-year deal with Arizona last offseason and turned the chance into his best performance to date. Grichuk slashed .291/.348/.528 in 106 games for the Snakes. He finished the season with an 88.7% zContact% and a 20.4% whiff%. The real source of this year’s breakout came behind more power. Grichuk posted a 48.1% hard-hit% — coming in among the very best in this year’s free agent group. He offers some upside if that surge can continue, but at 33 years old it’s difficult to imagine that he truly can. He’s a riskier option but has a fairly lengthy track record when it comes to good contact rates.
Thairo Estrada: Estrada was pretty abysmal in 2024, so it’s likely a surprise to see him here under the good options for Kansas City. He finished the year with a paltry 64 wRC+ for San Francisco and was optioned to Triple-A by the end of the season. The three years prior, however, Estrada was fantastic. He finished 2024 with a 90.1% zone contact rate and a 20.6% whiff rate. Both of those marks are near the 90th percentile. Chase got the best of Estrada and he simply worked himself into too many poor situations by swinging outside the strike zone. At still just 28 years old and with a track record of success, Estrada seems worth a shot. The underlying metrics point to the potential for success if he can simply refine his approach some and swing at better pitches.
The “Maybe” Options
Max Kepler: Kepler spent the last nine seasons in Minnesota and is set to hit the free-agent market this winter. Offering plenty of risk, he spent the end of the 2024 season on the injured list with knee tendonitis. There’s also a chance that he will require hip surgery this offseason. Those issues alone may prove to be enough to steer clear of the 31-year-old outfielder. However, he was solid when on the field last season. He finished the year with a 94 wRC+, anchored somewhat by his lingering injuries. The year prior, however, Kepler finished with 24 home runs and a 123 wRC+. There’s an upside here, but the risk may far outweigh it.
Yoan Moncada: The White Sox still hold a club option for Moncada in 2025. He appeared in just 104 games combined over the last two seasons. Just 12 of those were in 2024, due to injuries. Couple that availability with 2022’s poor showing, and it’s risky to consider Moncada. In 2022, Moncada appeared in 104 games for Chicago, slashing .212/.273/.353. Outside of 2019, he’s been unable to live up to his former top prospect status. Even still, in the brief sample we did have of Moncada this season he made contact in the zone at a near-90% rate. His chase and whiff rates were both average and there’s the upside for more if Moncada can get healthy and return to at least part of his former self.
