The Royals went 5-4 on their most recent homestand, which has helped keep them in the hunt for the AL Wild Card. The Royals still hold a 0.5-game lead over the Red Sox, though that could change if Boston beats the Yankees tonight.
Considering the Royals swept the White Sox in the first series of the homestand, though, going 2-4 against the Diamondbacks and Cubs feels disappointing, especially since the Royals came into those respective series as favorites.
Right now, Royals fans’ primary concern is what JJ Picollo will do to help this roster by the July 30th Trade Deadline. This makes sense, given that the Deadline is less than 48 hours away (6 p.m. ET on Tuesday), and the Royals have lost four of their last six at home.
The Royals have certainly been in the thick of possible deals but have been unable to close with any team for a roster upgrade so far.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jason Adam, and Carlos Estevez were rumored to be possible Kansas City trade targets, but they have been acquired by the Yankees, Padres, and Phillies, respectively. Miami’s Tanner Scott has been linked to discussions with the Royals, but it sounds like Scott will command a large prospect haul in return.
Taylor Ward and Luis Rengifo have also been rumored to be possible Royals targets, especially with Kansas City’s need to shore up the lineup (especially at the leadoff spot). However, trades of them may take until Tuesday’s deadline since the Angels expect a significant return for both players.
Improving the roster with some talent outside the organization is step number one for the Royals if they want to make a playoff push. However, it is not the only thing the Royals should do after the Trade Deadline passes on July 30th.
In this post, I look at three bold strategies the Royals should employ to not just improve their playoff odds (43.9% as of Sunday on Fangraphs), but also set themselves up for 2025 as well.
Have Marsh and Bubic Share An Opener and Bulk Reliever Role
After a solid start to the season, Alec Marsh has cooled down quite a bit. He posted a 3.26 and 4.05 FIP in March/April and May, respectively. However, he has seen his FIP regress to 4.47 in June and 5.68 in July.
Marsh is doing a relatively respectable job maximizing strikeouts and limiting walks as the Royals’ No. 5 starter this season. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.90 for the season, highlighted by a 22.3% K rate. His K/BB ratio is the 8th-best mark of any Royals pitcher with 10 or more IP this season.
The long ball, though, has been an Achilles Heel for Marsh, especially after the first month of play.
His HR/9 was 1.54 in May, 1.42 in June, and 2.40 in July. That’s a big reason his ERA has ballooned to 5.68 in June and 7.80 in July. His slugging percentage allowed has also seen an incremental rise as he has logged more innings on the mound, which presents concern about his outlook for the remainder of the 2024 season.
I don’t think Marsh should be removed from the rotation entirely. He throws strikes and can be one of the Royals’ strongest pitchers on staff when he’s locked in.
However, with Kris Bubic back, healthy, and in the bullpen, the Royals could boost Marsh’s effectiveness by using Marsh or Bubic as an opener and having the other take the bulk of the innings in the same outing.
The move makes more sense when one looks at Marsh’s “through the batting order” splits. He has seen his fair share of struggles the second time through a batting order, which isn’t a good sign for his long-term outlook as a starting pitcher in Kansas City.
As Royals fans can see, when he faces a lineup a second time, his earned runs are up, his walks are up, and his strikeouts are down. That trend can be typical for any starting pitcher, but the gap is especially evident in Marsh’s case.
The Royals have made it a priority to move Bubic to the bullpen for the remainder of this season, and it’s unlikely that they will move him back to the rotation anytime soon, especially since Bubic just returned from Tommy John surgery a year ago. The bullpen seems to suit Bubic well, especially regarding his four-seam fastball. The pitch is up by 2.1 MPH, and he’s averaging a whiff rate of 39.3%.
Furthermore, though it’s only a 7.2 IP sample, Bubic has demonstrated excellent pitch quality metrics based on PLV.
There have been some calls for Bubic to take a closing role. However, that may be expecting a lot from the lefty, especially since he hasn’t had much experience in a late-inning role in his professional career.
Conversely, Bubic’s role as a bulk reliever (or opener) and his partnership with Marsh could be a win-win for pitchers and the Royals.
Bubic gets the work he needs to transition to the starting competition in Spring Training in 2025, Marsh gets less exposed in fewer innings, and the Royals maximize the value of the fifth spot in the rotation without giving up assets for one on the trade market.
Have a “Closer By Committee”
James McArthur didn’t blow a save today, but he allowed three runs in the top of the ninth, which essentially put the game out of reach for the Royals in their 7-3 loss to the Cubs on Sunday. Despite these recent struggles on this homestand, manager Matt Quatraro supported the Royals’ reliever in the postgame press conference.
It’s hard to justify McArthur as the full-time closer at this point, especially with his ERA up to 5.44 and WHIP up to 1.45 in 39 outings and 41.1 IP this season. That said, he still provides value to this bullpen.
According to Savant, he ranks in the 93rd percentile in BB rate, 91st percentile in groundball rate, 81st percentile in extension rate, and 69th percentile in whiff rate. He consistently gives up too much hard contact to be genuinely dependable in high-leverage situations in the ninth, but he can still be valuable in tough spots from time to time.
The Royals will likely get some relief help by the Trade Deadline. That said, on the pregame show on 610 AM radio today, Picollo reiterated that they would be judicious with how they utilized their prospect capital in trades. He knows they need to get better, but they also don’t want to sacrifice the long term, especially as they continue to build up their farm system.
With Picollo making that point, it seems unlikely that the Royals will swing for a big closer like Scott, especially with the prospect price tag other relievers like Estevez and Adam commanded over the weekend. Conversely, Picollo could pick up some under-the-radar relievers and throw them in the “high-leverage” mix.
Quatraro should probably ease up on his commitment to “roles” in the bullpen and treat it much like the Rays did during his days as bench coach. In other words, the Royals should employ a “closer by committee” structure, even if they get some bullpen help by Tuesday.
Some days, it could be McArthur. However, they can also throw Angel Zerpa in closing spots, Hunter Harvey, John Schreiber, or the new reliever(s).
Employing a closer based on matchup could make it harder for opponents to scout and predict the Royals’ bullpen in the ninth. Furthermore, it could also give Quatraro an idea of who can handle long-term high-leverage situations in 2025.
Experiment with Bobby in the Leadoff (Again)
The Royals want to find someone on the trade market to hit leadoff. Chisholm Jr is off the market, so that possibility is out. The White Sox’s Tommy Pham is the most likely option, but Chris Getz appears hesitant to trade players within the division.
If the Royals acquire Pham or Rengifo, then their leadoff problem is solved for the remainder of the season. It also may make sense for the Royals to put Ward in the leadoff spot to give them their best four hitters at the top of the lineup.
Let’s say, though, that the Royals cannot make that deal for any of the players listed above. The asking price was too high, and the Royals plan to let it ride with their roster for the rest of the year. (That feels unlikely, considering the pressure Picollo’s facing from the fanbase to make a deal, but one can never know.)
If that’s the case, the Royals should experiment with Witt at the leadoff spot in the batting order.
I am not saying that Witt needs to hit leadoff every day. Against right-handed starting pitchers, Quatraro should keep experimenting with Adam Frazier and Michael Massey. It would be serviceable for the Royals to try MJ Melendez there again if he continues to hit like he did before going on the IL at the end of the first half.
Against left-handed starting pitchers, though?
Quatraro should try Witt in those spots to give him the experience and see if it can click again. Teams tend to put their best overall hitters at the top because it guarantees they get the most plate appearances in a game. For example, Gunnar Henderson and Shohei Ohtani lead off for the Orioles and Dodgers.
Witt is their best hitter, period. He needs the most at-bats in a game. Not Frazier, not Massey, not Maikel Garcia, not a new player. The Royals need to see if Witt can help prevent this “leadoff” problem this season from becoming a “leadoff” plague in the long term, where the Royals are constantly searching for an effective leadoff hitter and wasting Witt’s production.
I get why the Royals haven’t done it, especially with his struggles in the leadoff spot last year. Witt is comfortable in the No. 2 spot of the batting order, and if it isn’t broken with Witt, it makes sense not to “tinker” with his position in the lineup.
However, if the Royals cannot find the leadoff hitter they need by the Trade Deadline?
Then, the Royals need to embrace the spirit of “innovation and experimentation” that Quatraro often mentioned when he was hired as manager prior to the 2023 season.
Having Witt sparingly hit at leadoff could help the Royals be more innovative and solve a current problem without giving up too much.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Nick Wass