The Royals won their regular-season finale by a score of 4-2 against the Atlanta Braves on Sunday afternoon. The win improved the Royals record to 86-76, their best win total since the 2015 season. Furthermore, the Royals’ win and a Tigers loss on Sunday to the lowly Chicago White Sox helped the Royals clinch the fifth seed in the AL playoff bracket.
As a result, Kansas City will travel to Baltimore to take on the Orioles in the AL Wild Card round. The first game in the best-of-three series will be Tuesday afternoon, just after 3 p.m. CST.
The Orioles will be a tough challenge for the Royals, as Kansas City went 2-4 against Baltimore this season. That said, the Royals played them at the beginning of the season (in April, to be specific), and the Orioles have faded quite a bit down the stretch in many different statistical categories.
This site will soon provide a more comprehensive breakdown of how the Royals will fare against the Orioles. For now, I wanted to look at the Royals’ playoff roster, which needs to be trimmed from 28 to 26 by Tuesday.
In today’s pregame press conference, manager Matt Quatraro already confirmed the rotation for the AL Wild Card series (and this was before the Royals knew who their opponent would be).
However, the bullpen and position player roster is still a bit unclear, as Quatraro could go in multiple directions in both areas of the roster. Thus, let’s look at three lingering questions with the Royals roster that must be answered before playoffs are finalized Tuesday morning before the first pitch in Baltimore.
How Will the Bullpen Round Out With Singer and Lorenzen Joining?
In his pregame press conference, Quatraro did confirm that Brady Singer, who’s started for the entire season, will indeed transition to the bullpen for at least the AL Wild Card round.
This move is not a surprise to Royals fans. Singer has had an excellent bounce-back 2024 season, posting a 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 32 starts and 179.2 IP. However, he’s struggled a bit in the second half of the season.
After posting a 3.20 ERA and 1.23 WHIP before the All-Star Break, Singer has seen his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.40 and 1.33 in the second half. Singer has particularly struggled in September. According to Fangraphs, his K-BB% is only 8.3%, and his FIP is 5.91 during this month of play. Thus, it makes sense for Quatraro to utilize Singer in outings requiring fewer innings in the Wild Card series.
Additionally, Michael Lorenzen will be utilized out of the bullpen, and he saw some work as a reliever in game two of the Braves series on Saturday. Unlike Singer, Lorenzen has spent some time in the bullpen in other organizations, so the move shouldn’t be too much of an adjustment for the 32-year-old veteran.
With Singer and Lorenzen joining the bullpen, the postseason group should be pretty familiar with what Royals fans have seen over the past month when the rosters expanded to 28. The Royals have utilized 13 pitchers this month, the maximum number allowed on a playoff roster.
Therefore, expect the following relievers to be in Baltimore on Tuesday:
- Lucas Erceg (closer)
- Kris Bubic (setup)
- John Schreiber (setup)
- Daniel Lynch IV (middle)
- Angel Zerpa (middle)
- Sam Long (middle)
- Carlos Hernandez (middle)
The only question mark is Alec Marsh, who threw 77 pitches in the Royals’ win on Sunday. He may not be rested enough by Tuesday. A couple of options could be Steven Cruz, who’s filled in admirably in spot situations this season, or Will Smith, who may be coming off the IL soon.
Smith has had an up-and-down season for the Royals but has playoff experience and pedigree. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him fill in for Marsh as the last bullpen member for the Wild Card series.
Will Youth or Veterans Win Out for Position Player Depth?
The Royals’ most challenging roster decisions revolve around the bench. Currently, the Royals have six spots on the bench, which will need to be trimmed by two by Tuesday.
Some Royals bench spots should already be reserved.
Freddy Fermin will be Salvy’s backup catcher. Garrett Hampson and Adam Frazier will have spots due to their position versatility. Dairon Blanco will be the “Terrance Gore” type baserunner off the bench. Hunter Renfroe also likely has a place due to his power potential from the right side.
Thus, the remaining spots could be filled by MJ Melendez and Maikel Garcia, the Royals’ homegrown players, or Paul DeJong and Robbie Grossman, two veterans who were picked up during the season.
All four players have struggled immensely in September. According to Fangraphs, they combined to produce a brutal -1.2 fWAR this month.
Here’s how they all break down individually via Fangraphs metrics.
Melendez has been the best offensive threat of the group, but he also has been the worst defensively by Def (1.2 runs below average). Garcia is the best baserunner and has the lowest strikeout rate, but his 26 wRC+ is pretty paltry (and his defense hasn’t been as great as it was earlier in the year).
Grossman and DeJong have struggled with strikeouts, as Grossman’s K rate was 34.2% in September, and DeJong’s was 35.9%. Grossman can at least draw a walk (13.2%), unlike DeJong, whose 2.6% walk rate only amplifies his incredibly high K rate. Unfortunately, Grossman and DeJong have been punchless in the power department this month, as they both produced slugging percentages under .150.
DeJong and Grossman do have postseason experience. However, neither player has a stellar playoff record in their career.
DeJong has a .588 OPS in 49 postseason plate appearances, while Grossman has a .428 OPS in 51. Thus, it’s not like Grossman and DeJong are likely candidates to turn it around after poor performances in September.
Thus, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Quatraro and GM JJ Picollo opt for Garcia and Melendez for the last two spots on the postseason roster. They not only have better overall tools than DeJong and Grossman, but they will also be on this team in 2025 and benefit from the postseason experience (unlike DeJong and Grossman,, who will likely be gone after this season).
Will Vinnie Pasquantino Be Back?
The biggest question on Royals fans’ minds is whether or not Pasquantino will return to the lineup for Tuesday’s Wild Card game.
Thankfully, his recovery progress has been incredibly positive, and it sounds like it’s more than possible that he’ll be active by Tuesday. Quatraro seemed to echo that in an interview with MLB Network Radio this morning.
Since Vinnie went on the IL on August 30th, the Royals lineup has produced a 57 wRC+. That is not only the worst mark of any team in baseball, but the next worst wRC+ is 13 points better (the White Sox with 70). Royals hitters have not adapted with Vinnie out of the lineup, even with the additions of Grossman, Tommy Pham, and Yuli Gurriel in September.
As a result, the Royals nearly saw their lead in the Wild Card race evaporate. Thankfully, the Twins completely collapsed in September, which helped the Royals clinch a postseason berth.
If the Royals want to make any run in the postseason, the bats will need to pick up.
To do that, it may be necessary for the Royals to activate Vinnie off the IL. It does sound like the Royals still need to do some tests to confirm and preserve Vinnie’s long-term health. That said, it sounds like Vinnie wants to go, and the lineup needs the jolt of energy that Vinnie will provide.
If Vinnie is ready to go, he probably will see more time at DH than at first base, especially since he injured his thumb in the first place on a defensive play.
Consequently, Salvy may see more time in the AL Wild Card series at first base with Fermin as the primary catcher. Fermin has struggled offensively this month, but he has proven to be a far better defensive catcher recently than Salvy, especially when it comes to throwing runners out on the bases.
If Vinnie does get activated and becomes the primary DH, Gurriel will likely join DeJong and Grossman in not making the postseason roster. Gurriel initially got off to a hot start with the Royals. However, after today’s three-strikeout performance, his OPS is down to .634 in 65 plate appearances.
Gurriel held the fort at first base when Vinnie was on the IL. With Vinnie back, there’s no reason to keep him on the roster, especially since he lags significantly in the defensive and baserunning areas.
Photo Credit: Reed Hoffmann/AP
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