We are about a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training, so what better time to make some predictions (albeit way too early) about the 2024 Kansas City Royals? 

The Royals spent most of the offseason pleasing their fans by going out and signing many key free agents to shore up their rotation, bullpen, and outfield. Three areas where they needed to improve the most. So, what could be in store for the Royals in 2024?  

Bobby Witt, Jr. wins his first American League MVP

I’m just going straight for a bold prediction to start because why not have some fun? It is only January, after all. However, it might not be as bold as we think, as BWJ finished 7th in MVP voting last year. Fangraphs said he was 5th in WAR behind Shohei Ohtani, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Julio Rodriguez.

Yes, yes, I know, I know… the MVP award isn’t the WAR award, but it is still telling he is right up there at the top of the American League. And with Shohei Ohtani making his way to the National League, the door is wide open in 2024. On top of that, BWJ  got off to a slow start, which could have been attributed to his lack of playing time in the World Baseball Classic. He just couldn’t get the at-bats needed that he would’ve in spring training to get ramped up. 

BWJ has been everything Royals fans could have dreamed of so far, and he is turning into the franchise player the Royals have been missing for a while. He is one of the top players in all of baseball, not just the American League, and he will likely build on a very strong 2023 at 23 years old. Now, all we have to hope for is a long-term extension! 

John McMillon emerges as the Royals closer by May

This one might fall under more of a BOLD prediction as well, given the new names in the Royals bullpen and the emergence of James McArthur last year. Nonetheless, this is a fun prediction. 

McMillon gives you peak Wade Davis vibes. The 6’3, 230lb righty is a presence on the mound and isn’t afraid to come right after hitters. McMillon was electric in his brief stint in the major league before getting injured. He only pitched four innings last year but struck out eight batters in those four innings. It’s a fastball that averaged 98.8 mph and a disgusting slider to pair with it (and yes… that Slider averaged just about 87 mph last year). It is a very nice 1-2 combo that plays well in the backend of any bullpen.

I imagine that newly signed veteran free-agent Will Smith gets the first crack at closer. The lefty who started his career with the Royals has the most closer experience on the staff, notching 113 career saves, with 22 of those coming with the World Champion Texas Rangers last year. However, since 2019, Smith has struggled to find consistency, which may open the door for McMillon to take the reigns. 

Kyle Isbel emerges as a legitimate everyday centerfielder

All of us Royals fans have been waiting for Isbel to take that next step offensively to turn into the everyday centerfielder we’ve been told he can be since being one of the team’s top prospects. The defense has always been there, but the bat has struggled to catch up. 

Defensively, Isbel posted an 11 OAA according to Fangraphs, ranking in the 96th percentile according to Baseball Savant. That is near the top of the league and is 2 points lower than Kevin Kiermaier’s 13 OAA. Kauffman is a tough place to play centerfield, and Isbel has held his own. The only thing he really lacks out there is having the arm strength needed. 

On the offensive side of the ball, Isbel has shown some areas of improvement. He sported a 20.5 Whiff% and 18.8 K%, above league average. He had an okay Average Exit Velocity and HardHit%, which gives you some hope, but he just hit the ball on the ground too much due to his lack of getting barrel to ball. He’s got good plate discipline, as he makes a ton of contact and doesn’t chase, but the lack of solid contact hurts.

But these are fixable issues, and I think Isbel will take those significant strides needed to take his game to the next level. He’s likely to platoon a bit with Drew Waters, but I predict he will play well enough to win the strong side of the platoon. There is a reason that J.J. and company seem to believe in the combo of Isbel and Waters in center, so we will just have to see how this plays out. Either way, just be prepared for many more incredible plays like this…
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