It’s no secret that 2023 was a bad year for the Royals. In fact, the 106 losses tied the franchise record. Needless to say, it’s tough to find positives about a team that didn’t crack 60 wins in a season in which they were expected to be at least somewhat competitive. However, there were a few players who finished their seasons on a high note. If the end of their 2023 seasons indicates their 2024 outlook, expect these three guys to be key contributors for the Royals in the coming season.
Bobby Witt Jr.
The expectations for Bobby Witt Jr. were sky-high going into the 2023 season. He had an exceptionally solid rookie season and looked prime to turn into the next franchise player for the Royals. Those expectations may have been too much for him to handle early on in the season. Prior to the All-Star break, the 23-year-old had a slash line of .257/.300/.442. Those numbers are nothing to scoff at, but were a bit disappointing, given the expectations. The slow start could also have been attributed to playing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic (WBC). He didn’t see much playing time and missed much of the spring to compete in the WBC, so he didn’t really start seeing consistent at-bats to get ramped up until late March. Regardless, you can’t blame BWJ for taking advantage of that opportunity, as nothing beats the opportunity to play for your country.
After the break, however, Witt really took off at the plate. His slash line shot up to .301/.343/.563, and his counting stats followed suit. In 22 fewer games compared to before the break, he had just nine fewer hits, two fewer doubles, five fewer stolen bases, and two fewer walks. He also collected one more run, one more triple, two more home runs, two more RBIs, and 39 fewer strikeouts.
His 162-game pace using his back-half stats would include numbers like 38 home runs, 52 steals, and 200 hits. Those would have ranked 9th, 4th, and 4th in 2023, respectively. Add in the slash lines that he had in that period, and you may be looking at an MVP campaign for Witt. Even without keeping up that exact pace, he could very well be looking at his first All-Star game selection. Hopefully, for Royals fans, it would be the first of many in his career.
MJ Melendez
Melendez had a rather unimpressive 2023, both from the fans’ and likely his own expectations. However, I think there is a big reason for that. For the first 30 games of the season, he bounced around from right field to catcher seemingly every other game. I can only assume that playing catcher (or any position at the major league level, for that matter) is something that is much easier to do when you are doing it consistently. I guess that he was more focused on his play on the field than his play at the plate, and that could have affected him greatly.
Through his first 30 games, he batted just .177 and struck out 38 times. For the next 45 games, he settled into a role in right field. That seemed to help his offense, as his average jumped up to .236. The last and most important leap came after the All-Star break. Over his final 64 games, his average went all the way up to .273. He also hit 10 of his 16 home runs in that stretch and accounted for nearly half of his total walks.
I know what happens when you assume, but let’s just do it this one time. If his 2024 looks similar to that final stretch of 2023, he will put up a slash line close to .273/.352/.485, with counting stats in the ballpark of 27 home runs, 73 walks, and 68 RBIs. It’s nothing world-beating, but it’s certainly good enough to be a middle-of-the-lineup bat for the Royals.
James McArthur
For McArthur, I think it may not be a case of a strong second half. Instead, I think it was more so finding his footing during his first season in the majors. His first appearance came on June 28th, where he gave up seven runs on six hits in just one inning. He wouldn’t pitch again until August 6th. In his five appearances in August, he gave up at least one run in three of them.
However, for whatever reason, something clicked after giving up three runs in a one-run loss to the Mariners. In his final 12 appearances in 2023, he didn’t give up a single run and struck out 19 batters in 16 innings. He collected four saves, two holds, and a win in those appearances. The Royals clearly trusted him in high-leverage situations during that stretch, as five of his final seven appearances came in the 7th inning or later of a game decided by less than three runs.
For a team with the second-worst bullpen ERA in the league last season, McArthur being a reliable option in the late innings would be a huge plus going into 2024. With the additions of Chris Stratton and Will Smith, the Royals may have found a group of guys they can trust late in games. With Scott Barlow and Aroldis Chapman no longer on the roster, the Royals will roll out an almost completely new late-game rotation this season.