In 2024, Kris Bubic made his return to Kansas City after a long stint on the IL recovering from Tommy John surgery. Due to the vast success of the Royals starting rotation, Bubic was forced into a new role in the bullpen. His performance out of the bullpen was remarkable and gave Royals fans a lot of hope about what he could provide in the future. Now as we head into spring training, Bubic is expected to be the front runner for a spot in the rotation, raising some questions about what we can expect to see from him during the year in 2025.

Stats for Bubic in seasons past

2020; 50 IP/4.32 ERA/49 Ks

2021; 130 IP/4.43 ERA/ 114 Ks

2022; 129 IP/5.58/110 Ks

2023; (injuries limited sample size to 16 IP)

2024; 30.1 IP/2.67 ERA/ 39 Ks

How did Kris Bubic see this much improvement after his return?

Improvements in Bubic’s game showed up across the board, starting with his fastball. This is where I saw some of the most improvement out of Bubic in 2024. In the past, the fastball for Bubic was almost a liability, sitting very low 90s and even dropping into the 80s with below average spin. In 2024, Bubic averaged 93 MPH on his fastball as well as 2350 RPM, a massive improvement from his past showings of the pitch and transforming his game. Adding 2-3 MPH allowed him to set up his elite off-speed and breaking pitches and helped him put away hitters later.

We also saw major improvements on the shape of the Changeup for Bubic which already was one of his best pitches prior to his injury. The changeup saw significantly more movement, with 4 more inches of vertical drop and a 5 MPH increase in velocity. The changeup had maybe been the best pitch for Bubic prior to his injury, but in 2024 was absolutely dominating for him, only allowing a .174 XBA and a 34% WHIFF rate.

Bubic also consistently added a slider to his arsenal, and it proved to pay dividends quickly for him out of the bullpen. The pitch had incredible shape to it, averaging 2600 RPM (150 above league average) and 6 inches more vertical AND horizontal break than league average. The addition of the slider helped Bubic attack left-handed hitters with a hard breaking down and away pitch that was incredibly difficult to get the barrel on. While he struggled with the pitch early on after his return, the confidence came in September, and it quickly became a great offering for him.

What changes will we see from Bubic in 2025?

Assuming Bubic winds up winning a starter role in 2025, one of the main changes I think we can expect to see from Bubic will be with his arsenal of pitches. Prior to 2024, Bubic relied on almost exclusively a 3-pitch mix, something that was concerning to several analysts including myself. His sub-par fastball was of concern, but he was able to generate soft contact with a high-quality changeup and big curveball. But in 2024, we saw some changes to the pitch arsenal I would expect him to bring into 2025.

Early in his career, Bubic the curveball was a staple for Bubic with high spin and tons of vertical movement. Coming out of the bullpen, Bubic eliminated the curveball and relied on the slider as his primary breaking pitch. This was effective for him as he only needed three offerings as a bullpen arm when he only had to see hitters once in a game. But as Bubic transitions back to his role as a starter, I think we can expect him to bring back the curveball and utilize it as one of his primary offerings.

We also saw Bubic experiment with 2 alternate fastball offerings, a cutter and a sinker while pitching in the minor leagues during his rehab appearances. While the usage rates for those pitches in the major leagues was very minimal, I would expect him to continue experimenting in the offseason and may look to add them full time in 2025. With the slider being added in 2024, Bubic will likely roll with a 5 pitch mix this season and will make it much harder on opposing hitters to pick the ball up out of his hand.

What are some concerns for Bubic going into 2025?

The biggest concern that I have for Bubic is that we see regression in his stuff as he moves to the rotation out of the bullpen. It’s common that pitchers see improvement in their stuff when they come out of the bullpen, especially in velocity because they aren’t stretched out to throw 80+ pitches a game. There is some concern that as Bubic returns as a starter, there could be a dip in velocity on his fastball and changeup as well as a reduction in spin on his slider. The question then becomes, does the addition of the ~2 more pitches out way the slowdown in stuff?

There is also some concern about injury and if there will be a limit on how much Bubic pitches. Despite pitching out of the bullpen in 2024, recovering from Tommy John is a long and difficult process. There is some concern that the Royals will make changes to account for the injury and keep Bubic healthy. Some of these changes could be elimination of the curveball altogether or to impose an innings limit to reduce strain on the arm. Regardless, there is some concern that the injury could limit what Bubic is capable of as a starter, and with the success we saw out of the pen, there are some people suggesting that he remain in his role from 2024.

So what should Royals fans realistically expect from Bubic in 2025?

I think a reasonable expectation for Bubic statistic wise is for him to sit around a 4.0 ERA and be a high quality 4-5th starter in the rotation. Royals fans have been spoiled with some elite starting pitching in 2024 and it will be important to not set expectations too high for Bubic. It is likely we will see Bubic lose a bit of velocity and his K% may dip some, but I think Bubic should be an effective starter next season.

We know Bubic will add pitches to his arsenal going into 2025, and much of his success will be determined by how much confidence he has with those offerings. We have seen success with the curveball in the past, and if he can continue his success with the slider as well, he will have two quality breaking options. The team hopes he can add a sinker or a cutter next season and if he can find confidence and control with these pitches, he will have a better season than most expect.

Worst case scenario for Bubic, he sees a dip in velocity and struggles to avoid contact. If his ERA spikes and he struggles to command his other offerings, the Royals may consider moving him back to the bullpen where he saw success in 2024. The good news for the Royals, the floor for Bubic is high and he can be a high-quality reliever if he struggles as a starter. But all signs point to the Royals having confidence in his ability to bring back the curveball and slider, as well as add another variation to his fastball and be a quality starter in 2025. I think it is safe to say Royals fans can expect Bubic to be a quality starter in 2024, and worst-case scenario, struggles and finds his way back to the bullpen where he can be a high leverage reliever and return to the form we saw in 2024.