The Royals’ pitchers and catchers report next week. I repeat: the Royals’ pitchers and catchers report next week. The smell of baseball is in the air despite the sweet nectar of the endzone being a prominent focus of Kansas City sports fans this weekend. It’s a beautiful thing to have your city’s football season bleed straight into its baseball season, especially when there are legitimate reasons to be excited about your baseball team. The Royals have the pieces in place to build off their impressive 2024 season, but as with anything in life, expectations aren’t always guaranteed to be met. In baseball, there are injuries, slumps, and regression, resulting in success never being a sure thing. I want to take a look at what it would take for the Royals to have a “great” season and then break that down further into what would make a “good” season and a “disappointing” season.

A great season (87+ wins)

The 2024 Royals barely missed the cut of a great season based on their 86-76 record. The standard for a great Royals’ season may be different than other teams, but 87+ wins is still an impressive feat. This begs the question, what needs to happen in 2025 for the Royals to repeat their success from last season or improve upon it?

On-base percentage. The Royals simply have to get better at getting on base. Their .306 OBP in 2024 ranked 19^th in major league baseball. Before writing this, I would’ve guessed that they ranked lower, but there is no denying that some improvement is necessary. Bobby Witt Jr. carried the team in the OBP department with a ridiculous .389 OBP. Some other guys are going to need to step up if the Royals want to compete for an AL Central title. Jonathan India will certainly help, as he held a .357 OBP in 2024, which would’ve ranked 2^nd on the team behind Bobby. If the Royals want to have a great season, they need to raise their team OBP to at least .316, which would’ve had them 11^th in the MLB last season.

Four players with 20+ home runs. This may be more of a preference than actual necessity. The Royals had two players (Bobby Witt Jr. & Salvador Pérez) hit over 20 home runs last season and would’ve had a 3^rd had Vinnie Pasquantino not gotten hurt. I would love to see another player step up and be the 4^th player to hit 20+ home runs. There are a few candidates to get the job done: MJ Melendez, Hunter Renfroe, and Michael Massey. My money is on Melendez to be the 4^th player to hit 20 home runs, but don’t count Michael MASHey out if he has a full, healthy season. There’s no need to go into detail about why players hitting more home runs is helpful to the team; it would provide a big offensive boost.

Little regression from the starting rotation. It is no secret that the Royals’ starting rotation was among the best in the majors last season. Their 3.55 ERA from starters was 2^nd best in the MLB. They also had the 2^nd most innings pitched by starters and were tied for 3^rd in quality starts. This is certainly a recipe for success, and little has changed within the starting rotation heading into this season. The Royals still have Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo, undeniably the top two starters in the rotation, they re-signed Michael Wacha, who is coming off a fantastic season, and now get a full season of Michael Lorenzen, who excelled in his short time in the starting rotation last season.

The major difference is of course no Brady Singer, who had a great 2024 season himself. The Royals are going to attempt to replace his production with a full season of Lorenzen and a full season of a healthy Kris Bubic. Ultimately, I think Lorenzen and Bubic will replace his production admirably and keep the starting rotation strong and steady. On the flip side, I expect to see some regression from Seth Lugo and potentially Michael Wacha, given their age and heavy usage last season. The injury bug is bound to rear its head more often than last season, which will also cause some regression. The key is to limit the regression and remain a consistent, reliable unit that can pitch 5-6 strong innings every night and limit the bullpen’s usage.

Outfield production must improve. The big offseason topic among Royals fans is how the team can improve at the corner outfield positions. The highest WAR among Royals’ outfielders last season was Kyle Isbel at 1.8, the next highest being Garrett Hampson at 0.4. You read that right. Aside from Dairon Blanco’s .258 batting average, the next highest among Royals’ outfielders was Garrett Hampson’s .230 average. You also read that right. So far, the team has made no trades or free-agent signings to improve the outfield, making the growth of the current outfielders even more vital. The pitching staff will be the strength of this team, but the outfielders must improve if the Royals want a shot at a great 2025 season, including competing for an AL Central title.

A good season (82-86 wins)

The 2024 Royals were right on the precipice of a great season last year, and some may argue it was a great season. What would’ve made it truly great was competing neck-in-neck with the Cleveland Guardians over the final month of the season and holding them off to win the AL Central. We all know what happened next: Vinnie Pasquantino and Lucas Erceg were hurt on the same freak play, and the Royals struggled down the stretch. However, 86 wins is nothing to scoff at, and I think this team will likely finish in this same category in 2025. I envision them competing down the stretch to secure a wild card spot and hoping for some magic in the postseason.

Some reasons they will have a good, not great season:

1. The starting rotation will regress, while still being a top 10 rotation in the MLB.
2. The outfield production will be better, but no one will improve enough to make a meaningful impact in the lineup. There will still only be one outfielder worth over 1.0 WAR.
3. Salvy will have a dip in production, dropping his batting average to around .250 while hitting 22-24 home runs.
4. There will be little offensive help from minor-league players who get opportunities

Remember, a good season is still a good season, and I expect it to be one. However, the scenarios mentioned above would limit the growth of this team moving forward.

A disappointing season (77-81 wins)

I think there is too much talent on this team to experience a disappointing season. Could injuries derail that belief? Sure, but we won’t play that game in the offseason. Bobby Witt Jr. alone will account for 8+ wins for this team, and the bullpen has only gotten better since the trade deadline last season with the additions of Lucas Erceg, Carlos Estévez, and Hunter Harvey. However, if there were to be a disappointing season, I believe one or more of these scenarios would have to occur:

1. One of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, or Michael Wacha misses significant time with an injury.
2. Bobby Witt Jr. misses 20+ games due to injury (I could barely even type that).
3. The outfield somehow gets even worse than last season (if that’s even possible).
4. Michael Massey regresses at the plate or struggles with his back injury for long stretches.
5. The bullpen underwhelms.

Again, I don’t expect this to happen, but one or more of these things happening is not out of the realm of possibility.

An attempt to put a bow on it

The Royals will be a fun and competitive team in 2025. You can bookmark that. They have the talent to compete for an AL Central title and can have a great season if everything goes right. I have a hard time believing everything will go right, and maybe that’s the pessimist in me (or maybe the realist in me?). Despite that, I think this team has the makings of a good one, even while experiencing some bumps and bruises along the way. Spring training will give us a taste of what’s to come when the Royals take the field for Opening Day on March 27^th, when we’ll really see what this team is made of. Let’s get the Kansas City Chiefs a win on Sunday and ride that momentum toward an exciting season of Royals baseball.