Since Daniel Lynch IV was drafted 34th overall by the Royals in 2018, we have been wondering when he will break out and hit his peak. In 2019, Lynch IV started to climb prospect rankings to the 29th overall prospect in 2021. The upside he possesses has had the Royals and Royals fans waiting and hoping for the breakout.
He finally debuted in 2021 and has thrown up mediocre numbers in the big leagues, totaling a 5.18 ERA with 211 strikeouts and 99 walks in 252 innings pitched. One of the biggest concerns is that his strikeout rate hasn’t crept up, although he started to show signs of progression last year until he got hurt with a shoulder injury and was eventually placed on the 60-day IL in September.
Despite a decrease in velocity from 2022 to 2023, Lynch IV saw some improvement in a few places, especially around his fastball. He ranked in the 95th percentile in fastball extension and 91st in HardHit%. HardHit% was one of his biggest issues in 2022, and he dropped that from 47.7% to 32%. But that also came with a decrease in strikeout percentage from 20.3% to 15.2%. A lot of that could have been due to the injuries that impacted his secondaries, so it will be something to watch as he continues his rehab.
Lynch IV made a surprising return to the Arizona Fall League in October, a league usually dedicated to the game’s top prospects to showcase their abilities on another stage. It was a one-and-done appearance for him, though, as he went 3 innings pitched, giving up four hits and one earned run while striking out five. It was good to see his fastball sitting 93-94 mph. He even got it up to 95 at one point. He was featuring a lot of swing and miss in this game, which was good to see as it is something he’s struggled to maintain at the big league level.
He then made his way to the Dominican Winter League and got 20 plus more innings in while posting a 2.66 ERA with 23 strikeouts. The lefty looked like he was back to his old ways down there. There was a new refound confidence on the mound and many signs that the Daniel Lynch IV who had all the prospect hype was back.
While Lynch IV has been out dominating on his comeback trail from injuries, the Royals have been signing plenty of pitchers as they ramp up for the 2024 season. Two arms (Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha) are locks for the starting rotation with Cole Ragans and Brady Singer. Jordan Lyles has one more year with the Royals, leaving the question of where Daniel Lynch IV fit.
Of course, many scenarios could happen as we haven’t yet hit spring training and are still well into the offseason. Rumors have been that the Royals have aggressively been shopping Lyles for a potential salary dump-type deal but haven’t found any buyers. A trade of Lyles would easily open up a spot for Lynch to take the fifth spot in the rotation. It seems unlikely that the Royals find a home for Lyles outside of Kansas City at this point (but who knows, anything can happen).
A second option would be to bump Lyles to the bullpen in favor of Lynch IV. A strong spring for Lynch could surely lead the Royals in this direction. The one thing that could keep this from happening is that the Royals have a good amount of guaranteed money heading Lyles way. The likelihood is that they will want to give Lyles a shot in the rotation to see if he can bounce back and maybe they can secure some value for him at the trade deadline if he performs well. With Lyles not having to be a near top-of-the-rotation guy anymore, that could take some pressure off him to perform.
A third scenario is that Manager Matt Quatraro opts for a 6-man rotation. On paper, this is my favorite option. You look at the injury history of Michael Wacha and Cole Ragans, and it almost seems like a no-brainer to throw out a 6-man rotation to save the wear and tear on the Royals’ arms. Granted, the Royals have a lot more depth in pitching this year than last year, but if you want to keep these arms rolling throughout the 162-game season, it might make sense to go this route.
The last and more likely scenario is that Lynch performs as a multiple-inning guy out of the bullpen. Think like an Andrew Miller-type role. Lynch IV’s stuff isn’t as electric as Miller’s, but it could bump up a tick in a role like this. Having him in the bullpen might not necessarily be a bad thing as it would lengthen the bullpen out a bit for the Royals, and he could be someone who could come out for 2-4 innings of work if a starter struggles.
Regardless of what happens in 2024, the questions on Lynch’s role will continue growing as the Royals are expected to get Kris Bubic and Kyle Wright back in 2025. So much could change until then, especially with the increase in arms becoming injured with the new pitch clock rule. The strides Lynch made in 2023 before getting injured and his rehab’s success give you some hope that he could still have a significant role on this Royals team.