It’s been an exciting offseason for the Royals. One might call it a non-playing season with how active they have been on the free agent and trade markets. First, acquiring Nick Anderson and Kyle Wright from the Atlanta Braves in two separate deals. Then having the week of a lifetime as a small market team, as they signed Will Smith, Seth Lugo, Chris Stratton, Michael Wacha, and Hunter Renfroe consecutively. Followed by a couple transactional trades to help clean out the 40-man roster that included Taylor Clarke, Edward Olivares, and Jonathan Heasley. A lot of the Royals chores have been finished, but there are a couple more moves that they are looking to make.
J.J. Picollo on the Royals active offseason | Foul Territory
J.J. Picollo, Executive VP of Baseball Operations and General Manager of the Royals, was recently on Foul Territory to discuss the Royals’ offseason and where they’d like to go. They chatted about many things, but the item that caught my attention most was Picollo’s willingness to continue to make moves. “We have an opportunity to now improve the team on the margins, help to finish it off,” Picollo said. “I hope we can do a few more things”.
Then continued to praise owner, John Sherman, for letting them do the things that they need to do. When it came down to trading some young-controllable talent for an additional starting pitcher, Picollo said Sherman made the decision to instead invest that money into free agent starting pitcher, Michael Wacha, saying “Go ahead and do it. Let’s get it done”.
As a Royals fan for my whole life, it sounds like a completely different language that this organization would throw money at a problem. And with that in mind, let’s look at some options that the Royals should look at to fully finish the roster:
Bullpen
The Royals finished second to last in the MLB in bullpen ERA in 2023, and J.J. Picollo set out to make that right. But even with the additions of Smith, Stratton, and Anderson, they still need to add one more piece. Luckily for the Royals, there are quite a few veteran arms still available on the market that could make their way into powder blue.
Most Likely: Robert Stephenson, Aroldis Chapman, or Phil Maton
Let’s first talk Robert Stephenson. He had solid seasons in 2019 and 2021, putting up an ERA of lower than 3.80 and pitching more than 45 innings in both seasons. But 2023 was a completely different level for him. Stephenson got traded to the Tampa Bay Rays in June, and from there he skyrocketed. He put up incredible numbers, having a 2.35 ERA in 38.1 innings. He even added a pitch to his repertoire, a cutter, (sound familiar?) and “tinkered” with his slider usage.
These changes caused him to have career highs in spin rate, and although he didn’t qualify, baseball savant has him as one of the more elite relief pitchers in the game. It is the first time he will hit the market as a quality reliever, so he could chase a contract, but the Royals have been devoted to upgrading the pitching staff. He fits exactly what the Royals are doing from an analytics standpoint, and I’m sure manager, Matt Quatraro, could call and get good insight from his former employer.
It sounds crazy to put Aroldis Chapman on this list, but here’s why it’s not. He knows the system. You can say that he’s old, he won’t be the same, or he’s washed, but you don’t need him to be superman out there. They understand what he is, and properly adjusted him, which honestly should be the reason to prioritize the Royals. At the end of August, I even highlighted the changes he presumably made, that was different from with the Royals earlier in the year:
All that being said, Chapman’s 2.45 ERA with the Royals is good enough for me to give him another chance. You could make the case that Jake Brentz is already in the system and could fill that lefty reliever spot. But worst-case scenario? You flip Chapman at the deadline again for another fringe pitching prospect and see how it works out. It worked last time.
Phil Maton is probably one of my favorite names on this entire list. Solely because he is a solid, reliable pitcher. It just seems like the most “Royals-esque” pick outside of Stephenson. He has a history with Royals pitching coach, Brian Sweeney, while he was in Cleveland.
Even better? Hey, Look! His baseball savant page, where he is in the 90th percentile or higher in: xERA, xBA, Avg Exit Velocity, Whiff%, Hard Hit% (100!!), and Extension. These are all huge green flags to this new Royals pitching staff. Which seems to be a more analytic bunch. And with the Royals looking for more proven winners with consistency and reliability, he fits the bill. Just look at the pitching ninja tweet above. Wicked.
Less Likely: Hector Neris and Ryne Stanek
These former Houston Astros relievers are all intriguing for their playoff pedigree of course, but Chris Stratton did say that Will Smith helped influence his decision to come to Kansas City. So why can’t Will Smith convince some of his other former bullpen-mates to join him in the Midwest?
Hector Neris is probably the least likely to sign with the Royals, solely because of the money and the role that he would demand. But that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t be worth it. He was stellar in 2023 with a 1.71 ERA in 68.1 innings, with an ERA+ of 246. That is 146 points higher than the MLB average. His resume also speaks for itself. With eight full seasons as a reliever under his belt, he has a career ERA of 3.24 in over 500 innings. To make a splash, go get Neris.
Ryne Stanek is a guy that had a bit of a down year in 2023, where he went back to around league average. Where he had a 4.09 ERA with an ERA+ of 103. Although his walk rate did go down, it was definitely not a year to his standards. But his 2022 campaign was electric. Remember Neris’ ERA+ being crazy? Stanek had a 333(!!!) ERA+ in 2022, being the backbone of that Astros’ World Series championship bullpen.
With him having the down year in 2023, it could mean getting him for a bargain. If you’re able to give him a contract from $5-7 million per year, sign him immediately. He also adds some of that competitive flair that a contending team truly needs, and frankly hasn’t really been shown by the Royals.
I’m going to just call this section “dudes I don’t love but look like Royals” to cover me when this organization inevitably decides to sign someone on this list:
Drew Pomeranz, Brent Suter, Wandy Peralta, Michael Fulmer, and Alex Reyes
All in all. Some of the depth might make itself known in spring training with some internal options including James McArthur, John McMillion, Matt Sauer, Steven Cruz, etc. But I personally think one more veteran arm would help the legitimacy of the ballclub. Thankfully, the front office set a precedent early in the offseason to fix some of the bullpen issues that have been plaguing this team for years.
Rotation
The starting rotation the last few years has been unfortunate to say the least. We all knew that though, and thankfully the Royals were willing to spend. We already mentioned the additions of Wacha and Lugo, and with Cole Ragans and Brady Singer presumably taking two more spots, it seems there is one spot remaining in the rotation that’s up for grabs.
Aaaaand, hypothetically let’s just say they’re able to dump Jordan Lyles’ contract, somehow. It seems unlikely that they’ll land another starter before Opening Day, but they’ve proven this offseason that they’re committed to winning. They could use another starter to help put them over the edge, or one to continue his legacy.
Most Likely: Zack Greinke
When asked about Greinke in the podcast interview, Picollo said: “We love Zack Greinke, I’m so happy he was here the past two years. We’ll see how the offseason goes. If we continue to be active, there could be opportunity for him to come back that doesn’t exist today. But it may change. …so, we’re gonna keep all options open”.
We all know Zack, he’s going to take his time, make a decision, and probably not tell anyone for a couple weeks. It would hurt to see Greinke get his 3,000th career strikeout in another uniform, and you should bite for that reason. I’ve been entertaining the idea of giving him a player/coach contract.
So, he can get to 3,000 with the team he started with, and then when Kris Bubic is healthy again, he takes his spot. Since you’re committed to being competitive this year, the worst thing that could happen is that you have a Hall of Famer to keep instilling a winning culture. Moral of the story, if he wants to come back, let him.
Pipe Dream: Marcus Stroman
Look I know, it’s probably not going to happen. But bear with me. It would be more than just a signing. More than just another arm joining the rotation. I don’t care if his numbers don’t “project” to be amazing into his age 33 season and beyond. It would be the innate signal of change in the organization. To everyone everywhere that they’re actually competing.
It wouldn’t be: “Wow, look at the Royals, proud of them for spending some money to get some help”. It would be: “This is different. This team can compete, and they’re ready to win right now.” We would see the end of writing the Royals off, anytime the season starts. Of course, it’s not my $21-$25 million a year to spend, but it’s a move you must seriously sit down and consider doing.
Because if you sign Marcus Stroman, you are the favorites to win the division. This window would be theirs for the taking, and that WILL be worth the risk. There’s been discussion about what he would actually take, since he declined his $21 million option from the Cubs. And with Yamamoto signing already, he could stand his ground and get what he wants. But if that waivers at all, I’d expect the Royals to check in on him.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sean Manaea have a small reunion with the Royals to have another lefty option in the rotation. Although I do know Daniel Lynch IV and Kris Bubic are there, I’m unsure how they’ll deal with them. Especially with the Royals shipping off some of their “failed” prospects in some smaller trades, Lynch IV could be next.
Brandon Woodruff is the last name I’ll highlight with this: He’s similar to Kyle Wright, where he’s going to be out with injury for the 2024 season, but if you’re able to sign him to a cheap two, three-year contract? You should. You set your rotation up with quality veterans at every spot, and if Woodruff returns as half the player he was, “to the victor go the spoils”.
Utility Infielder
The last thing on the agenda is reportedly a utility infielder that bats from the left side. Anne Rogers of MLB.com said that in an article, a week ago. Which is a bit perplexing because of the addition of Garrett Hampson, I thought he would be the guy. Additionally, Nick Loftin deserves a spot on the team, so the reason why they need another infielder is still up in the air. Here are the guys I came up with: Adam Frazier, Tony Kemp, and Matt Beaty.
Starting with the latter, Beaty was with the team last year, and though he wouldn’t be the best option. I could see him getting an invite in the spring. Adam Frazier and Tony Kemp are virtually interchangeable. They are both at the point in their careers that they’re past their prime, don’t really hit, but they can both play adequate defense. And their most important trait? Veteran, playoff presence in the clubhouse.
The Trade Market
J.J. Picollo had an interesting take when discussing adding and subtracting. We discussed virtually everything he had to say about the team except one. The Royals are “now (looking) for ways to acquire some prospects. Now that the ‘24 roster seems almost settled. We’re gonna keep pushing”.
That pretty much signals to me that they’re done waiting for players to develop. They had the evaluation season, they evaluated, and now I think they’re gonna start looking for ways to cut their losses. Like they did with Heasley, Olivares, and Clarke.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a list of Lynch IV, Nick Pratto, Angel Zerpa, and maybe even M.J. Melendez, get shipped away to refuel the farm system. Some of them might be more lateral moves, to potentially have some team control over some younger players.
I won’t touch on these a lot, but Milwaukee and Baltimore might be a couple teams Kansas City might want to link up with. Both teams have an abundance of young, controllable outfielders that they just don’t have enough spots for.
Milwaukee would actually be a nice spot for Nick Pratto, as they don’t have a deep system at first. And with Jackson Chourio coming up, if you’re able to somehow grab Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, or Sal Frelick for Pratto and a couple others, I think that’s a trade that would benefit both organizations.
That’s what Picollo means by being “active on the trade market”. You have to improve, and they’re at least trying. Which is more than the Royals have done in the past decade.
That’s why you have to be excited for this Royals team. They’re very close to finishing this roster that has already made a significant change to the pitching staff. And with any luck, they can be competing for a spot when the calendar turns to October.