With the additions of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha this offseason, the Royals starting rotation appears to be set for now. Cole Ragans, Brady Singer, and Jordan Lyles figure to be the other three rounding out the rotation. Many, including myself, thought the addition of quality starting pitching options to be necessary this offseason for the Royals to compete in a fairly weak AL Central. Not only does acquiring Lugo and Wacha raise the floor of the starting rotation, but they will also allow some of the Royals’ top minor-league prospects to take their time developing and growing throughout 2024. In the past, we have seen the Royals rush prospects through the system to fill out thin position groups in the major leagues, but this increased pitching depth will be a welcome change to that way of operating.
I still believe that players like Daniel Lynch IV, Angel Zerpa, Alec Marsh, and Kris Bubic (when he recovers from Tommy John surgery), will get opportunities to contribute to the big-league team either in the starting rotation or in the bullpen, though they may all start the year in Omaha. It feels like a luxury to have more depth than this starting rotation has had in a handful of years. This begs the question: How does this increased depth at the top of the organization affect the top arms in the Royals’ farm system?
These projections are based on where I predict each of the Royals’ top-10 starting pitcher prospects to finish the 2024 season. Rankings are based on MLB Pipeline’s top 30 rankings for the Royals’ farm system.
MLB:
Chandler Champlain – Royals no. 4 pitching prospect
Notable 2023 season stats:
Quad Cities: 62 innings, 2.74 ERA, 61 K, 18 BB, 1.06 WHIP
NW Arkansas: 72 innings, 3.82 ERA, 64 K, 25 BB, 1.22 WHIP
Anthony Veneziano – Royals no. 6 pitching prospect
Notable 2023 season stats:
NW Arkansas: 42 innings, 2.13 ERA, 48 K, 5 BB, 0.99 WHIP
Omaha: 89 innings, 4.22 ERA, 79 K, 43 BB, 1.41 WHIP
Kansas City: 2 innings, 0.00 ERA, 1 K, 2 BB, 1.71 WHIP
I believe we will see both Champlain and Veneziano in Kansas City before the season ends. I imagine Veneziano will get that opportunity first, given he finished the season in Kansas City last year. We obviously do not have a good enough sample size to make conclusions on Veneziano’s future in Kansas City, but with his success in NW Arkansas and Omaha last year, the Royals will likely want to take another look at him this season. That look will likely take place in the bullpen due to the depth of the starting rotation in Kansas City and Omaha.
Champlain was a name that received a lot of buzz as the season progressed last year, and rightfully so. He had dominant stretches throughout the season where he appeared nearly unhittable. The growth in his confidence from 2022 to 2023 was obvious and will serve him well this season. I expect him to start the season in Omaha with a late-season call-up to Kansas City, likely in the starting rotation as he projects best as a starter. All this of course depends on how the MLB team is performing, how the trade deadline unfolds, the injury situations, and more.
Triple-A:
Mason Barnett – Royals no. 5 pitching prospect
Notable 2023 season stats:
Quad Cities: 82 innings, 3.18 ERA, 94 K, 38 BB, 1.18 WHIP
NW Arkansas: 32 innings, 3.58 ERA, 43 K, 12 BB, 1.19 WHIP
Noah Cameron – Royals no. 8 pitching prospect
Notable 2023 season stats:
Quad Cities: 35 innings, 3.60 ERA, 58 K, 9 BB, 1.06 WHIP
NW Arkansas: 72 innings, 6.10 ERA, 74 K, 26 BB, 1.56 WHIP
Mason Barnett had a very solid season across the board, seeing very little dip in his production after being promoted to NW Arkansas. The 23-year-old former Auburn Tiger does not allow very many baserunners, keeping his WHIP below 1.20 in both levels last year. He improved some of the control issues he faced during his final season at Auburn, which paid off greatly last season. His fastball is above average and pairs with a solid slider that carries great movement.
Noah Cameron was mowing hitters down to the tune of 58 strikeouts in 35 innings during his stint in Quad Cities. After a quick promotion to NW Arkansas and a stellar first start where he pitched 7 scoreless innings, the rest of his season was a mixed bag. However, with some of the best command in the organization, and two solid off-speed pitches in his changeup and curveball, Cameron has a great foundation to build on in 2024.
I foresee both Barnett and Cameron getting the call to Omaha around mid-season, where I would expect both to have opportunities to start. I would not count out either of them from getting a call-up to Kansas City at the tail end of the season depending on the outlook of the Royals’ season.
Double-A:
Ben Kudrna – Royals no. 1 pitching prospect
Notable 2023 season stats:
Columbia: 68 innings, 3.56 ERA, 70 K, 30 BB, 1.42 WHIP
Quad Cities: 40 innings, 5.36 ERA, 34 K, 15 BB, 1.66 WHIP
Frank Mozzicato – Royals no. 2 pitching prospect
Notable 2023 season stats:
Columbia: 56 innings, 3.04 ERA, 85 K, 34 BB, 1.24 WHIP
Quad Cities: 36 innings, 7.12 ERA, 45 K, 33 BB, 1.83 WHIP
David Sandlin – Royals no. 9 pitching prospect
Notable 2023 season stats:
Columbia: 58 innings, 3.38 ERA, 79 K, 13 BB, 1.19 WHIP
Quad Cities: 8 innings, 4.50 ERA, 8 K, 5 BB, 1.38 WHIP
A couple of the Royals’ top overall prospects will work their way up to NW Arkansas this year. Ben Kudrna — the Royals’ top pitching prospect — had a very solid season overall last year. He is consistent and rarely gets pulled from a start early; you can count on at least five solid innings nearly every time he takes the mound. His plus fastball, mixed with a solid changeup and slider, keeps hitters off-balance. I do not think it will take long for Kudrna to get the call to NW Arkansas.
Mozzicato is a bit of a tougher case study. He arguably has the highest ceiling of any Royals pitching prospect with his nasty curveball that generates plenty of whiffs, and a fastball that works well when his velocity is at its best. However, struggles with command hampered some of his progression in Quad Cities last year. He proved in Columbia that he can dominate a game with ease and make quick work when everything is clicking. The Royals hope to see more of that this season.
It’s a shame that David Sandlin’s season was cut short due to injury because he was rolling for a good portion of the season. He has plenty of experience after spending three seasons at the college level, so the Royals should feel comfortable sticking him back in Quad Cities to start the season. Sandlin’s two best offerings are his fastball and slider, with the slider offering some strong horizontal break. I expect him to get the call-up to NW Arkansas by season’s end.
High-A:
Hunter Owen – Royals no. 7 pitching prospect
Notable 2023 season stats:
Vanderbilt: 64 innings, 3.52 ERA, 76 K, 17 BB, 1.08 WHIP
Henry Williams – Royals no. 10 pitching prospect*
*Matt Sauer is the 10th-ranked starting pitcher prospect, but will most likely spend a good portion of 2023 in Kansas City’s bullpen to fulfill Rule 5 Draft guidelines. I substituted Henry Williams in his place.
Notable 2023 season stats:
Lake Elsinore (Cal): 42 innings, 5.74 ERA, 40 K, 21 BB, 1.42 WHIP
Columbia: 24 innings, 3.38 ERA, 23 K, 13 BB, 1.29 WHIP
There have been injury concerns with both Owen and Williams, but there is plenty of upside with both. Owen is a Vanderbilt product who had a great final season up until he missed four starts toward the end of the season due to arm fatigue. He has a 60-grade slider that misses a lot of bats and will play off his mid-90s fastball well. I foresee him starting in Columbia before making the jump to Quad Cities by the end of the season.
Williams came to the Royals organization last year through the Scott Barlow trade that sent him to San Diego. He underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of 2021 and has been building back from that for the past couple of years. His five starts in Columbia to end the season showed some promise that Williams will be back to full strength in 2024.
Low-A:
Blake Wolters – Royals no. 3 pitching prospect
Notable 2023 season stats:
N/A. Drafted in 2023 out of high school.
Bonus: Hiro Wyatt
Notable 2023 season stats:
N/A. Drafted in 2023 out of high school.
“High-upside” is the term that seems to follow Wolters and Wyatt around in most circles. Both have staples in their arsenal: for Wolters, it is his 65-grade fastball that tops out at 99 MPH, and for Wyatt, it is his hard-breaking slider that is impressive to the naked eye. I expect both of these young arms to begin the season in the Arizona Complex League before making their debuts in Columbia near mid-season.